“Life is not orderly. No matter how we try to make it so, right in the middle of it lose a leg, fall in love, drop a jar of applesauce.” - Natalie Goldberg
I just went out for a few more groceries (Publix was still completely out of water) and gas. 2 gas stations I went to were out of gas. I waited about 20 minutes at a 3rd station and was able to fill up the car and 2 gas cans. Then swung by Winn Dixie and was able to snag 2 cases of water. H is out at Home Depot now getting more bungee cords and tie downs for our shed.
“Life is not orderly. No matter how we try to make it so, right in the middle of it lose a leg, fall in love, drop a jar of applesauce.” - Natalie Goldberg
Just called my parents near Fort Lauderdale and offered to have them come to NC (RTP area) with my grandma. My parents said that there are had lines and stations are running out of gas. My mom is worried about driving and getting stranded without gas. Their friends tried to get flights out and couldn't find anything. I'm going to look after the kids go to bed and see if I can get a flight with my points.
I don't know if I could get them to come either way, though. Grandma is crazy stubborn and will barely go to my parent's place to ride out the storm when they live down the block.
I'm wracking my brain to remember where we rode out Andrew. I think it was Palm Aire hotel. Old enough with reinforced stair wells, plus west of 95 (we were in cat 2 mandatory evac for storm surge east of US 1. That's miles inland and suffered only landscape damage) The pictures don't match what I remember, but location does. Hell, it's been 25 years. They could have updated, and I, in my pre-teen brain, may have distorted some things out of fear. If you want to PM their neighborhood, I can try to think of hotels that have been there since the 60s where Ft Laud took 3 or 4 major direct hits plus now Andrew, Katrina, and Wilma. I'd try to avoid buildings between Reagan and Andrew unless a remodel forced them up to code. Deregulation!
Key West I believe is already under evac orders. Miami-Dade hasn't officially released.
I understand people not wanting to leave the state. You want to do damage control ASAP. But ride out the storm in safety. Your mom's fear about stranding aren't unfounded. And if they fly it could be weeks before they get back in.
There were stories of people in Andrew who'd sheltered in hotels who crawled into bathtubs with mattresses overhead. You know why we know those stories? They lived. They lost everything but their lives.
I'm trying to ride the line between scaring people and reassuring them. So, I'll probably just scare those who are already terrified and calm those who weren't worried.
For those trying to store water and can't find jugs, there's an old bathtub trick. Clean really well, with bleach if your materials can handle it. Seal, slather vaseline all over seal, then fill. It's a stopgap and isn't potable, but, it works for flushing and washing.
On that note, cleaning wipes whether for face or ass. When you're mucky and stinky, it's a small amount to preserve a moment of normalcy.
I just spoke to my grandparents, and I have never heard my grandma so worried. Luckily Spirit air had a $50 flight down tomorrow morning, so I'll be flying down and driving their car up. Heaven help me.
This just made me cry. So great of you. Good luck!
I've been on the road all week and am way behind on following the storm. A dear friend who lives in Homestead (north of Key Largo) and is debating to evacuate up here and stay with us.
Do we know when it will be too late to get on the road?
Post by unclejesse on Sept 5, 2017 21:10:44 GMT -5
I'm here in central FL. Not scared yet but we are prepared. I didn't even think of baby wipes and that's a great idea, so we will grab them. Costco was a fucking nightmare, and it didn't help they were closed yesterday. Our retention pond is what I'm most concerned about, it spilling over and coming up to the house. That and the windows, but other than that, we will just wait and see, until we are told otherwise. I haven't read the entire thread, but all toll roads in FL are free until further notice so people can evacuate if they need to. The Keys has a mandatory evacuation tomorrow.
Just called my parents near Fort Lauderdale and offered to have them come to NC (RTP area) with my grandma. My parents said that there are had lines and stations are running out of gas. My mom is worried about driving and getting stranded without gas. Their friends tried to get flights out and couldn't find anything. I'm going to look after the kids go to bed and see if I can get a flight with my points.
I don't know if I could get them to come either way, though. Grandma is crazy stubborn and will barely go to my parent's place to ride out the storm when they live down the block.
I'm wracking my brain to remember where we rode out Andrew. I think it was Palm Aire hotel. Old enough with reinforced stair wells, plus west of 95 (we were in cat 2 mandatory evac for storm surge east of US 1. That's miles inland and suffered only landscape damage) The pictures don't match what I remember, but location does. Hell, it's been 25 years. They could have updated, and I, in my pre-teen brain, may have distorted some things out of fear. If you want to PM their neighborhood, I can try to think of hotels that have been there since the 60s where Ft Laud took 3 or 4 major direct hits plus now Andrew, Katrina, and Wilma. I'd try to avoid buildings between Reagan and Andrew unless a remodel forced them up to code. Deregulation!
Key West I believe is already under evac orders. Miami-Dade hasn't officially released.
I understand people not wanting to leave the state. You want to do damage control ASAP. But ride out the storm in safety. Your mom's fear about stranding aren't unfounded. And if they fly it could be weeks before they get back in.
There were stories of people in Andrew who'd sheltered in hotels who crawled into bathtubs with mattresses overhead. You know why we know those stories? They lived. They lost everything but their lives.
I'm trying to ride the line between scaring people and reassuring them. So, I'll probably just scare those who are already terrified and calm those who weren't worried.
My parents are in Delray, about 2 miles west of 95. They have hurricane windows rated up to 200 mph and their house is block construction. I'm still nervous.
I found some flights that are reasonable, I'm going to ask them if Grandma's willing to make the trip. She's 93 and stubborn as hell.
I just spoke to my step mother in Sarasota. All she had done to prepare was to buy a Brita filter.... I just sent her a large order from Amazon.
I just tried to order batteries for my parents from amazon but prime shipping won't get them there until Monday. How is that 2 days?!?
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I was able to do it only by paying extra two day shipping. I never pay shipping from Amazon and this order for $100 cost me $40 to ship. Even Amazon is running out of D batteries.
Shipping guarantees are void in natural disasters. Eventually highways will be one direction only, and we don't know when that will happen. So that's why your 2 day may say Monday... indefinitely.
bears, it sounds like they're in the best possible situation of a shitty scary situation, so finding support for them locally might have more success in improving safety than convincing them to fly, especially if it means gramma staying behind which I'm guessing they wouldn't do.
Could you see if there's an elevated garage they could walk to just to spread risk, park a car at home, park one there in the lee? Map out shelters, including ones that allow medically frail individuals? Maybe if they see a what if? scenario of no backup they might shift, but it might give peace of mind to give them backup plans.
Do they know evacuation routes? They're all marked with hurricane symbols, but off the top of your head and without power, you may not know. Maybe if they could print multiple maps that would give you peace of mind. Or you could do that for them so you're "doing something." They are not in an evacuation zone.
Single story? 2? I think we've well covered stuff preparation, but for building peace of mind there is some different advice.
I'm sorry. You must be beside yourself with fear. My grandpa is in pompano just e of 95 in assisted living, so they're not evacuating, and I'm confident in their building and plans. So I'm not saying this with no personal connection.
I've been on the road all week and am way behind on following the storm. A dear friend who lives in Homestead (north of Key Largo) and is debating to evacuate up here and stay with us.
Do we know when it will be too late to get on the road?
Your friend should probably get on the road ASAP. I am way north of her and people are saying that, if you're planning to leave, to leave tomorrow. The sooner the better.
“Life is not orderly. No matter how we try to make it so, right in the middle of it lose a leg, fall in love, drop a jar of applesauce.” - Natalie Goldberg
Shipping guarantees are void in natural disasters. Eventually highways will be one direction only, and we don't know when that will happen. So that's why your 2 day may say indefinitely.
Well, crap. I ordered a few things I am counting on being delivered before the storm.
Are you in FL? Sorry if this is common knowledge; I am new to CEP.
“Life is not orderly. No matter how we try to make it so, right in the middle of it lose a leg, fall in love, drop a jar of applesauce.” - Natalie Goldberg
Shipping guarantees are void in natural disasters. Eventually highways will be one direction only, and we don't know when that will happen. So that's why your 2 day may say indefinitely.
Well, crap. I ordered a few things I am counting on being delivered before the storm.
Are you in FL? Sorry if this is common knowledge; I am new to CEP.
Nah, just born and raised. Fam still there. Been there since ft laud was teeny tiny. Bahamian side for centuries.
If batteries are difficult to find go to speciality stores, adult toy stores and even kid toy stores. Any store that has its own supply chain is good for bread and water, but I only know Texas. Here it is HEB but that's localized to Texas with locations based on supply chain.
Track looks very different because steering currents are different. Don't freak out just yet. I'll use another self help axiom "don't borrow tomorrow's troubles." Hmmm, I think that's biblical. Atheist fail.
In the meantime, I'm now wide awake. H called asking questions like I'm Brian fucking Norcross (who made his fame in Andrew, btw. Listened to him on battery weather radio. Was still local. His voice kept millions of us calm).
My enginerd father group up boating in FL/Bahamas. I'm his equally nerdy daughter he taught to monitor and evaluate. And equally nerdy grandpa in the merchant marines taught us both. We're multi-generational salts. But that helps with pragmatics and interpretation, not supernatural ability to predict. Lol.
My FIL still won't call me back. So I had to explain to H his particular risks and preparations without ever having visited (he's newly retired across country) and with knowing how ornery he is. For all I know the guy is halfway to Chicago by now and said fuckit, I grew up in Alaska. I'll take that over these fucking hurricanes. (I actually could hear him say that). Love the guy. Totally sounds like me. Or he might say "tell that wife of yours to tell us what to do, and we'll do it, kid." Seriously, he talks like that
YIKES As a hurricane matures, its wind field often spreads out while the peak winds slowly decrease. The hurricane’s storm surge potential does not necessarily drop, though, because the broadened wind field can be pushing just as much water as before. Hurricanes such as Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012), whose winds weakened before landfall, produced much more surge than one might have expected from their Saffir-Simpson rating, which depends only on maximum wind speed. A storm as powerful as Irma will have the potential to create devastating storm surge even if its wind field eventually expands and its top winds weaken.
=======The 5 pm EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC highlighted a number of Florida locations with chances of seeing hurricane-force winds by Sunday evening, with the highest odds in the Florida Keys and South Florida:
24%: Key West 23%: Marathon 14%: Miami 11%: Naples 8%: West Palm Beach 8%: Ft. Myers 3%: Tampa
Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) is a theoretical measure of the maximum strength a hurricane can achieve, based on the existing ocean temperatures and the thermal profile of the atmosphere. Above is a plot of the MPI as computed from the GFS model run from 0Z Tuesday, September 5, 2017. Irma hit 185-mph winds in a region where theory said it should only have been able to attain peak winds of about 165 mph. According to an email from hurricane scientist Dr. Kerry Emanuel, “in numerical simulations, rapid intensifiers often overshoot their potential intensity, but eventually settle back to it.” Note that the MPI along the track of Irma peaks at about 210 – 215 mph in the Florida Straits. This implies that Irma has room for still more intensification as it approaches Florida, if wind shear, land interaction, and eyewall replacement cycles do not interfere. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel.
I couldn't sleep last night because I'm worried my mom will be stubborn and stay.
I tried looking for a flight to Phoenix but they were $2k and non refundable. I'm going to call her this morning to see if she'll fly out or go with my dad. She has health and mobility issues so if something should happen she would be in a super bad position.