Elizabeth Warren announces 2020 run

[Velar Fricative]

Dec 31, 2018 10:55:38 GMT -5 spearmintleaf said:

My flammable opinion is that I think this election, our final candidate should be male. Trump is highly dangerous and incompetent, and there is a certain percentage of America that will not vote for a woman under any circumstances. Breaks my heart to say it. Idk yet if this will influence how I vote in the primary.

If the goal is for the rest of the electoral map to stay the same and "just" flip back PA, WI and MI, then I think Warren has a decent shot as any D man with her progressive messaging re: economics. I know two more years is an eternity in politics, but Hillary didn't lose those states by *that* much and she had way way WAY more baggage than Warren has.

[seeyalater52]

Dec 31, 2018 11:08:40 GMT -5 spearmintleaf said:

Dec 31, 2018 11:00:49 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

Playing these sorts of games with electoral math is very dangerous though. There is a small group of people who will never vote for a woman. The group of reliable democratic voters that will never vote for a woman is smaller than that but there are surely some. But there’s no real way to measure that against the risk of losing out on the better candidate, the one people were excited about that would have gotten people out to the polls.

It’s a mistake to get too wrapped up in what we think voters will do or what they want because it’s nearly impossible to predict it accurately and there’s too many variables. Primary performance answers these questions for us way better than hypotheses about demographics do.

I live in a pretty liberal area and I just know so many people who didn’t vote for Clinton because she was a woman. Like, almost all the women I know who are over 60. And lots of the men too. And younger men. The double standard on private email use is a perfect example. If she does it, she shouldn’t be President. If Trump and his entire team do it, nobody cares. Or that she stayed with Bill. Of course if she were divorced that would be a no-no too. All of that is a slightly different version of not voting for her because she’s a woman.

I do agree that I should just vote as I see fit and not as a strategic move, and ultimately that is what I will end up doing because I can’t do anything else when it comes down to it. And I want a woman president so badly.

It’s just my fear talking. 8 years of Trump... I just can’t imagine where we will be by the end of that.

I totally get the fear. However, among democratic voters the data just does not support that this is a widespread thing. You already said you’re not going to try to game voting so I cant disagree with your fears because of course we are all afraid! I just worry because election after election people make choices based on what they “think” people want or who they “think” can win and often those thoughts are off base. I get jumpy becuase Im still not entirely convinced that “strategic voting” in the Republican 2016 presidential primaries isn’t what brought us Trump as the nominee.

[Velar Fricative]

Dec 31, 2018 11:12:34 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

Dec 31, 2018 11:08:40 GMT -5 spearmintleaf said:

I live in a pretty liberal area and I just know so many people who didn’t vote for Clinton because she was a woman. Like, almost all the women I know who are over 60. And lots of the men too. And younger men. The double standard on private email use is a perfect example. If she does it, she shouldn’t be President. If Trump and his entire team do it, nobody cares. Or that she stayed with Bill. Of course if she were divorced that would be a no-no too. All of that is a slightly different version of not voting for her because she’s a woman.

I do agree that I should just vote as I see fit and not as a strategic move, and ultimately that is what I will end up doing because I can’t do anything else when it comes down to it. And I want a woman president so badly.

It’s just my fear talking. 8 years of Trump... I just can’t imagine where we will be by the end of that.

I totally get the fear. However, among democratic voters the data just does not support that this is a widespread thing. You already said you’re not going to try to game voting so I cant disagree with your fears because of course we are all afraid! I just worry because election after election people make choices based on what they “think” people want or who they “think” can win and often those thoughts are off base. I get jumpy becuase Im still not entirely convinced that “strategic voting” in the Republican 2016 presidential primaries isn’t what brought us Trump as the nominee.

Yup. See also: John Kerry 2004 and Mitt Romney 2012.

[curbsideprophet]

The Republican Party has been vilifying HRC for years. I don’t think you can say just because someone would not vote for her they will not vote for any woman.

I am okay with Warren running. I hope Bernie stays away but I realize that is unlikely.

[Velar Fricative]

And I totally get the fear too. I want to do whatever it takes to ensure we don't get another four years of Trump because I know he's very capable of winning a second term. BUT, I don't think that means we definitely have to put up another white guy for the nomination.

[5kcandlesinthewind]

I'm glad she threw her hat in - she's a strong contender, and I hope she'll encourage the other strong contenders to get in there quickly and start getting some visibility. And the only way people are going to think of women as Presidential is if they are out there running, so the more the damn merrier IMO. I don't think we'll see what we did in 2016 on the R side - a majority of Ds understand the importance of letting the best candidate end up the nominee, so I suspect (hope) most of the people without a shot will drop out early. And with CA moving their primary to Super Tuesday, it will be "settled" even earlier -hopefully, that will help build an earlier coalition around the eventual nominee, so we don't have to fight about it until freaking June again.

The Berners seem too busy trying to take Beto out for some reason, but I'm sure they'll turn their ire to the female candidates soon enough.

[seeyalater52]

Dec 31, 2018 11:16:40 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

And I totally get the fear too. I want to do whatever it takes to ensure we don't get another four years of Trump because I know he's very capable of winning a second term.

This is my other underlying thought/fear: Trump is extremely likely to win another term. In my opinion, defeating him is going to be extremely hard, if not impossible - especially given the changes to the RNC and campaigns. Pre-emptively blaming the failure of the Democratic candidate to win based on a particular demographic characteristic is massively unfair given that context. It sets us up poorly for future elections and also ignores actual factors that will influence the outcome of the election, like which candidates run, who secures the nomination, what their central campaign messages are, and how well and strategically the campaign is run. The reason Clinton lost wasn’t because of her gender in any meaningful way and it’s unlikely any hypothetical 2020 loss would be either.

[goldengirlz]

Dec 31, 2018 10:55:38 GMT -5 spearmintleaf said:

My flammable opinion is that I think this election, our final candidate should be male. Trump is highly dangerous and incompetent, and there is a certain percentage of America that will not vote for a woman under any circumstances. Breaks my heart to say it. Idk yet if this will influence how I vote in the primary.

This statement makes me want to throw things. How many people would have said Obama had no chance because he’s black?

And everyone in this thread saying she’s not electable. How many historic wins did we pick up in mid-terms?

(Source on Warren’s approval rating for good measure because I went through all the trouble of Googling it: morningconsult.com/2018/07/25/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-2/)

[One Girl In All The World]

Jesus. Can we just not with the “we need a white dude” crap? No.

[seeyalater52]

Dec 31, 2018 11:18:28 GMT -5 5kcandlesinthewind said:

The Berners seem too busy trying to take Beto out for some reason, but I'm sure they'll turn their ire to the female candidates soon enough.

The Berners I know are out in full force today against Warren because they’re still sour grapes that she didn’t endorse him in the primary. Apparently that one endorsement would have changed the outcome and he would hs been the nominee! 🙄 Male entitlement is strong, no other explanation I can think of for why she owed him her endorsement.

[seeyalater52]

Dec 31, 2018 11:21:45 GMT -5 goldengirlz said:

Dec 31, 2018 10:55:38 GMT -5 spearmintleaf said:

My flammable opinion is that I think this election, our final candidate should be male. Trump is highly dangerous and incompetent, and there is a certain percentage of America that will not vote for a woman under any circumstances. Breaks my heart to say it. Idk yet if this will influence how I vote in the primary.

This statement makes me want to throw things. How many people would have said Obama had no chance because he’s black?

And everyone in this thread saying she’s not electable.

(Source on Warren’s approval rating for good measure because I went through all the trouble of Googling it: morningconsult.com/2018/07/25/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-2/)

It’s way too early to say who does or does not have a chance at winning obviously, but I do want to point out that there is a big difference between having high approval ratings among your constituents in Massachusetts and winning the presidential nomination or presidential election. I wouldn’t read to far into those ratings. I even think comparing in-state approval of Senators in their states to in-state Trump ratings is kind of shoddy methodology (from the article) but a head-to-head comparison of Warren to Trump among MA voters isn’t particularly useful data.

[heyjude]

EW is also helping to normalize a culture where women run for POTUS. This is a great thing in and of itself.

[One Girl In All The World]

Finally got a chance to watch the video. I have to say it was pretty damn good.

[Velar Fricative]

Dec 31, 2018 11:29:03 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

Dec 31, 2018 11:21:45 GMT -5 goldengirlz said:

This statement makes me want to throw things. How many people would have said Obama had no chance because he’s black?

And everyone in this thread saying she’s not electable.

(Source on Warren’s approval rating for good measure because I went through all the trouble of Googling it: morningconsult.com/2018/07/25/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-2/)

It’s way too early to say who does or does not have a chance at winning obviously, but I do want to point out that there is a big difference between having high approval ratings among your constituents in Massachusetts and winning the presidential nomination or presidential election. I wouldn’t read to far into those ratings. I even think comparing in-state approval of Senators in their states to in-state Trump ratings is kind of shoddy methodology (from the article) but a head-to-head comparison of Warren to Trump among MA voters isn’t particularly useful data.

Lord, this post just made me realize Warren is from MA and so are the two "electable losers" I cited above, Romney and Kerry. That's it, Warren's toast lol.

[NewOrleans]

Dec 31, 2018 11:21:41 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

Dec 31, 2018 11:16:40 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

And I totally get the fear too. I want to do whatever it takes to ensure we don't get another four years of Trump because I know he's very capable of winning a second term.

This is my other underlying thought/fear: Trump is extremely likely to win another term. In my opinion, defeating him is going to be extremely hard, if not impossible - especially given the changes to the RNC and campaigns. 

Please don’t say this. I’ve been giving myself a pep talk about how we’re halfway done with him. 😩

[seeyalater52]

Dec 31, 2018 11:34:53 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

Dec 31, 2018 11:21:41 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

This is my other underlying thought/fear: Trump is extremely likely to win another term. In my opinion, defeating him is going to be extremely hard, if not impossible - especially given the changes to the RNC and campaigns. 

Please don’t say this. I’ve been giving myself a pep talk about how we’re halfway done with him. 😩

Sorryyyy. I hope I’m wrong! I try to be as balanced as possible with these things, so I’m not being flippant or alarmist I just think it’s a possibility we should be prepared for, and it could end up not being the Dem nominee’s “fault” if they lose (especially considering the GOP’s voter disenfranchisement and cheating.)

[turnipthebeet]

She has bold ideas, a record of voting for the working class, and is passionate/clearly believes what she’s saying. She belongs in this race. And fuck no to a white man (at least in the primary).

[seeyalater52]

Dec 31, 2018 11:33:23 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Dec 31, 2018 11:29:03 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

It’s way too early to say who does or does not have a chance at winning obviously, but I do want to point out that there is a big difference between having high approval ratings among your constituents in Massachusetts and winning the presidential nomination or presidential election. I wouldn’t read to far into those ratings. I even think comparing in-state approval of Senators in their states to in-state Trump ratings is kind of shoddy methodology (from the article) but a head-to-head comparison of Warren to Trump among MA voters isn’t particularly useful data.

Lord, this post just made me realize Warren is from MA and so are the two "electable losers" I cited above, Romney and Kerry. That's it, Warren's toast lol.

Like I said, geography is her biggest liability. Her message should speak clearly to working class white voters in swing states but I’m not sure if they’ll be willing to hear it.

ETA: while also being intersectional. She’s not perfect on that point but she strikes the balance WAY better than Bernie.

[NewOrleans]

Dec 31, 2018 11:36:52 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

Dec 31, 2018 11:34:53 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

Please don’t say this. I’ve been giving myself a pep talk about how we’re halfway done with him. 😩

Sorryyyy. I hope I’m wrong! I try to be as balanced as possible with these things, so I’m not being flippant or alarmist I just think it’s a possibility we should be prepared for, and it could end up not being the Dem nominee’s “fault” if they lose (especially considering the GOP’s voter disenfranchisement and cheating.)

😭

[bcv513]

Dec 31, 2018 11:33:23 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Dec 31, 2018 11:29:03 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

It’s way too early to say who does or does not have a chance at winning obviously, but I do want to point out that there is a big difference between having high approval ratings among your constituents in Massachusetts and winning the presidential nomination or presidential election. I wouldn’t read to far into those ratings. I even think comparing in-state approval of Senators in their states to in-state Trump ratings is kind of shoddy methodology (from the article) but a head-to-head comparison of Warren to Trump among MA voters isn’t particularly useful data.

Lord, this post just made me realize Warren is from MA and so are the two "electable losers" I cited above, Romney and Kerry. That's it, Warren's toast lol.

Don't forget Dukakis! 

[seeyalater52]

Dec 31, 2018 11:40:16 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

Dec 31, 2018 11:36:52 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

Sorryyyy. I hope I’m wrong! I try to be as balanced as possible with these things, so I’m not being flippant or alarmist I just think it’s a possibility we should be prepared for, and it could end up not being the Dem nominee’s “fault” if they lose (especially considering the GOP’s voter disenfranchisement and cheating.)

😭

You and me both. The good news is that my prediction is also that Dems take the Senate and keep the House in 2020 so it would be a different world than Trump’s first term.

[atexan]

All I have to say is we better NOT nominate a white man. I think HRC came with unfortunate baggage that was of course rooted in sexism, but I don't think that will hold true for every woman. As much as I love Beto, I'd prefer him as a VP pick. Behind Kamala Harris, in my fantasy land.

Of course, the nightmare scenario is that Ivanka ends up being America's first woman president. /dies

[pixy0stix]

I don't wanna talk about Bernie for the next 2 years.

[underwaterrhymes]

Dec 31, 2018 10:37:44 GMT -5 MrsAxilla said:

What the hell, guys? Elizabth Warren can't beat trump? That's ludicrous! Of course she can; any of them can. The question isn't who can beat him, but what's their vision and plan? That's where we need to be focused. 2020 needs to be about our agenda and how it will positively impact voters' lives. Beating trump will be the bonus.

I liked this because I’m here for the sentiment, but I do disagree.

He can and will win again if we aren’t careful.

[iamlaila]

Dec 31, 2018 11:29:22 GMT -5 heyjude said:

EW is also helping to normalize a culture where women run for POTUS. This is a great thing in and of itself.

Yes, I was just thinking that I hope from 2016 onward, every presidential election has a woman running for her party's nomination.

[heyjude]

I think it would be a mistake to think democrats have this in the bag and 2020 will be easy. But I don’t think anyone should be saying at this point that one candidate or another is extremely likely to prevail. It’s way way way too early for that. Trump has major advantages going into 2020 and he has major liabilities. We are in unchartered times. And 2020 is a lifetime away. Democrats won’t win if we think we are guaranteed the win or the loss.

[pinkballoons]

I think Warren would be solid if she brings in someone from Texas as a running mate - Castro, or even O'Rourke. Similar to the Kennedy/Johnson strategy. Warren needs someone younger and more vibrant on the ticket, and Texas would be a good place to look strategically.

I prefer Harris over Warren at this point, but I'm not opposed to Warren either. I'm not riding the O'Rourke for President train, but he and his team know how to build excitement (not only in Texas, but across several states), and he would bring just enough "rock star" to the ticket. Castro would be better for substance and has good administrative experience.

At the end of the day, if the candidate is from either coast, the VP needs to come from Texas, Colorado, or Georgia, but I'm leaning Texas at this point.

[agnes]

Just remember that everyone said Trump wasn’t electable and that he wouldn’t win. Until he did.

[Deleted]

Fuck the Berners. Seriously. To me, they’re as bad as the Trumpers because they can be relied on to be douchebags but not to ultimately vote in their own interests.

And what if Trump goes down as a traitor to our country with the Mueller investigation and ultimately doesn’t run? Who would the GOP put up successfully? I think that’s what baffles me the most about the RNC going all-in on Trump.

[Velar Fricative]

Dec 31, 2018 12:07:22 GMT -5 @bugginnine said:

Fuck the Berners. Seriously. To me, they’re as bad as the Trumpers because they can be relied on to be douchebags but not to ultimately vote in their own interests.

And what if Trump goes down as a traitor to our country with the Mueller investigation and ultimately doesn’t run? Who would the GOP put up successfully? I think that’s what baffles me the most about the RNC going all-in on Trump.

Nikki Haley would be my guess unless they are confident that Pence would come out of the investigation unscathed.