Post by goldengirlz on Jan 26, 2021 23:29:40 GMT -5
Not sure if anyone posted this last week (it didn’t come up in search) but there’s evidence there could be a “California” variant of the virus, which might explain why SoCal was so hard hit over the past couple of months:
(Ed. note: I knew there had to be more to the story here.)
Separately, I just got back from the East Coast and had a chance to see how some of those states are handling vaccine distribution (by helping my own mom get vaccinated and by hearing about the experiences of some of my relatives.) California looks like a disorganized mess in comparison and now I’m concerned.
br]Separately, I just got back from the East Coast and had a chance to see how some of those states are handling vaccine distribution (by helping my own mom get vaccinated and by hearing about the experiences of some of my relatives.) California looks like a disorganized mess in comparison and now I’m concerned.
that’s because it is.
I’m fascinated that the Bay Area shot up and is coming down so fast. I wonder if switching personnel from testing to vaccines is leading to less testing and fewer identified cases because it’s been a pretty sharp drop.
"Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies-"God damn it, you've got to be kind.”
By sheer dumb luck, I got a vaccine appointment this afternoon. The relief of the idea that I will be close to fully vaccinated in 6 weeks is immense.
Can I ask where? I’m trying to make appointments for my in-laws and striking out everywhere
Through Montgomery County (I work there). They have released appointments every day at the community college (our HR person sent the info). The appointments are gone almost immediately, but I periodically refreshed it and there happened to be one last night so I grabbed it.
"Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies-"God damn it, you've got to be kind.”
Not sure if anyone posted this last week (it didn’t come up in search) but there’s evidence there could be a “California” variant of the virus, which might explain why SoCal was so hard hit over the past couple of months:
(Ed. note: I knew there had to be more to the story here.)
Separately, I just got back from the East Coast and had a chance to see how some of those states are handling vaccine distribution (by helping my own mom get vaccinated and by hearing about the experiences of some of my relatives.) California looks like a disorganized mess in comparison and now I’m concerned.
I know we talk about variants from other countries, but I couldn’t fathom that we don’t have a bunch of our own native to this country, where we have a quarter of the world’s confirmed cases. It doesn’t shock me at all that there’s a CA variant, and I’m sure there are/were others. This is where the botched national response in the spring is really hurting us - we just gave this virus too many chances to mutate.
Post by Velar Fricative on Jan 27, 2021 9:03:18 GMT -5
Listening to today's Daily with Donald McNeil. I saw the 1/3 number thrown around for LA County re: infections, but he says one of the major reasons we've seen a drop in cases starting January 9th and that this might be the "real thing" in terms of a sustained drop is because experts believe 1/3 of the American population has already been infected, with many of those infections coming most recently. That's...astounding. We all know 25 million cases is an undercount but 1/3 is...a lot. Maybe I missed this assumption earlier but damn.
And with possibly 1/3 of the population having already been infected and resulting in nearly a half million deaths (using the excess death number, which may include people who didn't die of covid but died because they couldn't get care for other ailments due to covid), plus hospitals getting overwhelmed at various times throughout the country, I still say fuck everyone who believes we should have just let this virus run its course to achieve her immunity. That would be at least 1.5 million dead, and I believe from the beginning experts predicted that would result in 2.2 million deaths, which could actually be a closer figure than 1.5 million because of even more overwhelmed hospitals. Not to mention how many reinfections there would be anyway.
Rachel Maddow interviewed a disease expert last night who said we need to get to 240 million people vaccinated, ideally by early summer.
How is that even possible if the vaccines are only approved for about 210 million people? (According to a quick Google that's how many people who live in the U.S. are over 18.)
Rachel Maddow interviewed a disease expert last night who said we need to get to 240 million people vaccinated, ideally by early summer.
How is that even possible if the vaccines are only approved for about 210 million people? (According to a quick Google that's how many people who live in the U.S. are over 18.)
@@@@@we can add in folks 16-17. That will bump up the numbers a bit. I saw that segment but what he was proposing doesn't seem possible even if it is the ideal state. @@@@
Even if we had 600,000,000 vaccines ready to go we can't get them into arms because of logistics AND concerns about the vaccine creating voluntary opt outs.
Listening to today's Daily with Donald McNeil. I saw the 1/3 number thrown around for LA County re: infections, but he says one of the major reasons we've seen a drop in cases starting January 9th and that this might be the "real thing" in terms of a sustained drop is because experts believe 1/3 of the American population has already been infected, with many of those infections coming most recently. That's...astounding. We all know 25 million cases is an undercount but 1/3 is...a lot. Maybe I missed this assumption earlier but damn.
...
This 1/3 number could be plausible if you go about it in reverse. We don't know the exact death rate since we don't know how many people have had it, but if it's around 0.5% and we've had 423k known deaths, that would imply around 85 million of us have been infected. That's 1/4 instead of 1/3, but within the margin of error for the death rate.
Rachel Maddow interviewed a disease expert last night who said we need to get to 240 million people vaccinated, ideally by early summer.
How is that even possible if the vaccines are only approved for about 210 million people? (According to a quick Google that's how many people who live in the U.S. are over 18.)
Is the reason for early spring that they believe people will become even less compliant with staying away from people over the summer and spread will pick up?
I’ll admit I was thinking that if we do see sustained increases in production from Pfizer and Moderna it would be really beneficial from a global perspective if the US prioritized the use of those vaccines and donated/sold/released from contract as many doses of the J&J vaccine as possible* to countries that do not have the infrastructure in place to distribute the vaccines with the lower temperature requirements. There are plenty of people who could wait another month or two for a vaccine here if it means that more people overall are getting vaccinated more quickly. *I do recognize that there are rural areas in the U.S. where the logistics of the other two are also incredibly difficult to accommodate and the J&J vaccine is necessary.
Listening to today's Daily with Donald McNeil. I saw the 1/3 number thrown around for LA County re: infections, but he says one of the major reasons we've seen a drop in cases starting January 9th and that this might be the "real thing" in terms of a sustained drop is because experts believe 1/3 of the American population has already been infected, with many of those infections coming most recently. That's...astounding. We all know 25 million cases is an undercount but 1/3 is...a lot. Maybe I missed this assumption earlier but damn.
And with possibly 1/3 of the population having already been infected and resulting in nearly a half million deaths (using the excess death number, which may include people who didn't die of covid but died because they couldn't get care for other ailments due to covid), plus hospitals getting overwhelmed at various times throughout the country, I still say fuck everyone who believes we should have just let this virus run its course to achieve her immunity. That would be at least 1.5 million dead, and I believe from the beginning experts predicted that would result in 2.2 million deaths, which could actually be a closer figure than 1.5 million because of even more overwhelmed hospitals. Not to mention how many reinfections there would be anyway.
I think the 1/3 number is probably about right. I just checked the antibody positivity rate for VA's testing and it has seen a major spike upwards since mid-December and is now at nearly 28%. For my county, antibody positivity rate is currently 30% -- and for context, we're at about 15% PCR positivity (two-week average) and have never even hit 20% PCR test positivity at any given time, compared to some areas/states seeing 30+% PCR positivity rates or higher.
We are also starting to see a drop in PCR positivity, the two-week average has as high as 18% recently and it's steadily dropping. The 7-day average is at like 13% right now and continuing to fall, so the two-week will drop as long as that continues.
Philly turned to a "group of college kids" to help with vaccine distribution. It was a disaster: elderly people were turned away from getting the vaccine even with confirmed appointments, doses went wasted, communities were ghosted after pop-up testing sites never happened.
Rachel Maddow interviewed a disease expert last night who said we need to get to 240 million people vaccinated, ideally by early summer.
How is that even possible if the vaccines are only approved for about 210 million people? (According to a quick Google that's how many people who live in the U.S. are over 18.)
Is the reason for early spring that they believe people will become even less compliant with staying away from people over the summer and spread will pick up? ...
I think he said early summer to try to compensate for the spread of the more contagious variants. These are expected to be widespread in the US by March (if not sooner) so we want to get as many people vaccinated by then at possible, which puts us on a rate to do most vaccinations by early summer.
Of course, he was also saying we're not anywhere near on track to meet these goals, just that they are what he thinks we need.
I mean, sure it’s going to happen. But you don’t know the complexities of anyone’s health so I wouldn’t worry about it.
I mean on GBCN there have been multiple “my nurse friend called and said that there were leftover doses and if we got here by 5 we could get one” stories. Yes, it kind of sucks. But if shots are getting in arms then I’m not going to waste my time or energy.
I don't doubt that this is happening, but how can you be sure the person doesn't qualify? I registered with NJ and was surprised that I got a notification last week that I'm eligible now (1b). I'm 48 and WFH and the only comorbidity I have is high blood pressure, but apparently that makes me eligible in NJ. No one would know about my HBP unless I told them. Maybe that's the case for the person you know?
Of course, even though I'm eligible there are not appointments available so I haven't actually gotten the vaccine yet. That's a separate issue, though.
Has anyone seen anything about people jumping the line and getting vaccinated while not yet eligible?
PDQ
That's awesome that this person shared her medical records with you!
Have you joined the "Citizens Eligibility Police?" Are you going to snoop on everyone that you know and inform on them when you don't think that they are "worthy" of a vaccine? Cause that's how you come across here.
Where you also one of those people who snooped in everybody else's grocery cart last March and reported back when other people purchased things that you felt that they didn't need to purchase?
Has anyone seen anything about people jumping the line and getting vaccinated while not yet eligible?
PDQ
That's awesome that this person shared her medical records with you!
Have you joined the "Citizens Eligibility Police?" Are you going to snoop on everyone that you know and inform on them when you don't think that they are "worthy" of a vaccine? Cause that's how you come across here.
Where you also one of those people who snooped in everybody else's grocery cart last March and reported back when other people purchased things that you felt that they didn't need to purchase?
I realize this might be how I came across, but the eligibility in our state right now is quite limited and has not opened to those with medical issues, so this has nothing to do with eligibility due to a pre existing condition. The next phase (which has not started) includes those people with increased risk. I should have been more specific.
That's awesome that this person shared her medical records with you!
Have you joined the "Citizens Eligibility Police?" Are you going to snoop on everyone that you know and inform on them when you don't think that they are "worthy" of a vaccine? Cause that's how you come across here.
Where you also one of those people who snooped in everybody else's grocery cart last March and reported back when other people purchased things that you felt that they didn't need to purchase?
I realize this might be how I came across, but the eligibility in our state right now is quite limited and has not opened to those with medical issues, so this has nothing to do with eligibility due to a pre existing condition. The next phase (which has not started) includes those people with increased risk. I should have been more specific.
But you can't possibly know. And even if you could, a) it's not your business and b) every single person who could even remotely be considered an expert has said that shots in arms is a good thing.
Note-- I was able to get vaxxed because I'm one of those people who has a friend who said, hurry, sign up, we are dumping doses at the end of the day and we shouldn't be wasting them. I was told emphatically that I was not stepping on anyone's toes. And I felt no guilt since I'm being forced back to in-person school this week. I signed up and have other friends who were able to as well, at the last minute.
I realize this might be how I came across, but the eligibility in our state right now is quite limited and has not opened to those with medical issues, so this has nothing to do with eligibility due to a pre existing condition. The next phase (which has not started) includes those people with increased risk. I should have been more specific.
But you can't possibly know. And even if you could, a) it's not your business and b) every single person who could even remotely be considered an expert has said that shots in arms is a good thing.
Note-- I was able to get vaxxed because I'm one of those people who has a friend who said, hurry, sign up, we are dumping doses at the end of the day and we shouldn't be wasting them. I was told emphatically that I was not stepping on anyone's toes. And I felt no guilt since I'm being forced back to in-person school this week. I signed up and have other friends who were able to as well, at the last minute.
Maybe I’m feeling extra salty because our teachers are having trouble getting appointments (teachers are currently eligible). So this is further delaying the opening of schools (we’ve been closed since March). And I had to pull one of my kids because virtual was not working for him, so now I’m homeschooling and working full time until schools go back in person. So the more that people cut in line and take appointments from teachers, the longer it will be before they open schools. So right now, it feels like the kids are never going to go back because they can’t even manage to get appointments for those who are currently eligible.
That's awesome that this person shared her medical records with you!
Have you joined the "Citizens Eligibility Police?" Are you going to snoop on everyone that you know and inform on them when you don't think that they are "worthy" of a vaccine? Cause that's how you come across here.
Where you also one of those people who snooped in everybody else's grocery cart last March and reported back when other people purchased things that you felt that they didn't need to purchase?
I realize this might be how I came across, but the eligibility in our state right now is quite limited and has not opened to those with medical issues, so this has nothing to do with eligibility due to a pre existing condition. The next phase (which has not started) includes those people with increased risk. I should have been more specific.
We are in the same state, so I know what you're talking about. Unless they are over 65 or work in certain fields/jobs, they are not supposed to be able to get an appointment. I think it would be pretty obvious at this point if you know a person's approximate age and job whether or not they qualify.
I guess my question then would be how do they have an appointment? My understanding is that if someone makes an appointment and they aren't actually eligible, they will be sent home and won't actually end up vaccinated. It's possible some people who aren't eligible are being called last minute as others describe, but I would assume that wouldn't mean an appointment is scheduled then. So... I don't know. Someone is breaking the rules to make appointments if this is true.
My cousin and his wife made appointments when it was HCW only here. They work from home, and are not HCW. I don't know the details and will not be asking them because it's not worth a fight and we haven't seen them in over a year. I did get upset when I heard because the next day I read that we had to close down one of our community clinics because they ran out of vaccine. I get why people want to jump the line, and I get why people are stressed about it the fatigue and nerves are real.
Post by heliocentric on Jan 27, 2021 12:37:45 GMT -5
cosmowife, unfortunately there are people who feel entitled to jump the line & are trying to pull strings. I can only hope there is some sort of system to prevent that most of the time.
I don't know how it is in your state, but in NJ there was an online registration portal. There didn't see to be anything to stop someone from lying about their job or health issues to try to get into an earlier phase. (Maybe there is some verification at the appointment stage. I haven't gotten that far yet.) I like to believe most people are honest, but sadly not everyone is.
I wanted to share my example to consider, but it might've sounded like I was jumping on you.
Post by neverfstop on Jan 27, 2021 12:38:30 GMT -5
I'm curious when we start getting to the "essential worker" classifications....who exactly is deciding? how are they verifying?
I know there are technically government standards & lists, but if you work for/any of those, you can be considered essential. I'm trying to think of somebody who would NOT be considered essential... people who work at strictly entertainment places? or nail/massage salons? I feel like almost everybody else can somehow claim they fit into education, infrastructure, defense, legal, medical, transportation, food/groceries, delivery, etc.
Maybe a person who works for an oil & gas (or any other company) that isn't public facing, that is working from home, say like HR or accounting. Their company/industry is essential, but their job really isn't, but they'd still qualify, right?
This seems like it's going to be a nightmare and/or on the honor system.
I'm curious when we start getting to the "essential worker" classifications....who exactly is deciding? how are they verifying?
I know there are technically government standards & lists, but if you work for/any of those, you can be considered essential. I'm trying to think of somebody who would NOT be considered essential... people who work at strictly entertainment places? or nail/massage salons? I feel like almost everybody else can somehow claim they fit into education, infrastructure, defense, legal, medical, transportation, food/groceries, delivery, etc.
Maybe a person who works for an oil & gas (or any other company) that isn't public facing, that is working from home, say like HR or accounting. Their company/industry is essential, but their job really isn't, but they'd still qualify, right?
This seems like it's going to be a nightmare and/or on the honor system.
This is the hard thing. I actually do work in higher ed HR. They announced earlier this week that they are going to open up vaccines to higher ed, but there are specific job types that are eligible, and even within those, only those who work on campus will be allowed (like faculty. They are eligible, but those who are teaching 100% remote are not).
In practice, I have no idea how that will be enforced. If I went to my county health department with my work ID, they really would have no way to verify whether I work on campus or not, or that I work in HR instead of transportation or one of the other jobs that is eligible. So ultimately it ends up being honor system, I think.
Don't think it didn't cross my mind to sign up... but obviously I won't. Someone who cares less about ethics could, though.
They were not doing anything to check when I went to get my vaccine. In fact my husband was with me to fill out my form so they could read it (still can't write with my right hand yet) and they gave him one to fill out. It would have been so easy to just slide his form over and get him vaccinated as well, but obviously we didn't want to do that. He's going to wait in the car for my second one in case the have extra doses that are going to go to waste. We wanted to ask during the first one but it was really busy.