Russia/Ukraine

[rubytue]

Feb 15, 2022 19:30:16 GMT -5 basilosaurus said:

Feb 15, 2022 15:35:23 GMT -5 rubytue said:

And this time, per underwaterrhymes ’s post, maybe it did. I mean, it’s make sense that the cyber attack people took down the defense ministry as a first act of war. *sighsob*

I'm torn with ambivalence. I'm completely powerless, but it's also a very real situation. I'm just ostriching over here.

I just read this npr article www.npr.org/2022/02/15/1080933264/biden-americans-ukraine-russia. One part that stood out to me. Russia being Russia.

"But then I talked to a lot of Ukrainian friends here and my boyfriend and his family and ... to them, it was, 'Well ... this has been happening for about eight years. It's nothing new for us. It's just Russia being Russia.' "

[Velar Fricative]

Biden is convinced Putin will invade and that Kyiv is targeted.

www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/18/world/russia-ukraine-biden-putin/biden-holds-urgent-talks-with-nato-leaders-amid-growing-signs-that-war-is-imminent-in-ukraine

[karinothing]

Feb 18, 2022 18:04:27 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Biden is convinced Putin will invade and that Kyiv is targeted.

www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/18/world/russia-ukraine-biden-putin/biden-holds-urgent-talks-with-nato-leaders-amid-growing-signs-that-war-is-imminent-in-ukraine

NPR was saying that Biden needs to start preparing America for how devastating a war with Russia will be.

So that is terrifying

[audette]

A friend living in a different country in that part of the world mentioned an explosion in Luhansk, and that it might be part of the false-flag incident that is expected. The buddy posted on social media about it today, and suggested any ex-pat friends make sure they know where their docs are, and, perhaps, make some copies to keep handy, just in case.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10527897/Ukraine-crisis-Pro-Moscow-rebels-start-evacuating-civilians.html

[Jalapeñomel]

Feb 18, 2022 19:26:34 GMT -5 karinothing said:

Feb 18, 2022 18:04:27 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Biden is convinced Putin will invade and that Kyiv is targeted.

www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/18/world/russia-ukraine-biden-putin/biden-holds-urgent-talks-with-nato-leaders-amid-growing-signs-that-war-is-imminent-in-ukraine

NPR was saying that Biden needs to start preparing America for how devastating a war with Russia will be.

So that is terrifying

Links on what this means for the US?

[cattledogkisses]

Feb 19, 2022 11:18:14 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

Feb 18, 2022 19:26:34 GMT -5 karinothing said:

NPR was saying that Biden needs to start preparing America for how devastating a war with Russia will be.

So that is terrifying

Links on what this means for the US?

NPR has a breakdown of ways this is most likely to affect Americans: 

Rise in oil and gas prices. 

Supply chain issues specifically affecting aerospace and semiconductor industries, but also potentially other things as well. 

Volatility in the markets. 

Possible cyber attacks against the U.S.  

Likely influx of Ukrainian refugees. 

www.npr.org/2022/02/16/1081185004/russia-ukraine-invasion-us-impact

Europe is going to be much more affected than us though due to their dependence on Russian oil and gas, and how closely they’re linked through trade. 

[rubytue]

Here is a weird super specific, but personal effect. I’m currently talking to three carpentry shops, researching a custom expoxy/wood table. They are in Turkey, Ukraine, and Poland. (I had a US person, but it’s $2k cheaper even with shipping). I was leaning toward the lady in Poland for a variety of reasons, but now, add potential war in Ukraine as another con for that one.

(There are a bunch of other P&CE-type issues you could dig into that go into my considerations on the above, but… the only one relative here is war is playing into one consideration, and one that the craftsmen cannot control),

[mbcdefg]

The U.S. has warned the United Nations that it believes Russia has plans to kill large numbers of critics, dissidents and "vulnerable populations" in Ukraine or send them to camps after an expected invasion.

The Kremlin denied the report on Monday, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov calling it an “absolute fiction.”

Ambassador Bathsheba Nell Crocker, the U.S. representative to the Office of the United Nations and Other International Organizations in Geneva, recently made the assertions in a letter to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, the contents of which were first reported Sunday evening by The Washington Post.

NBC News obtained the letter, which says, "We have credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation."

www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-plans-target-dissidents-ukraine-killed-sent-camps-us-says-rcna17031

[cattledogkisses]

Jesus.

[cattledogkisses]

I know Biden keeps saying we won’t be putting military boots on the ground in Ukraine, and on a personal level I certainly have no desire for my husband to deploy again, but we can’t stand by while something like that happens, right?

[AJL]

Feb 21, 2022 10:00:42 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

I know Biden keeps saying we won’t be putting military boots on the ground in Ukraine, and on a personal level I certainly have no desire for my husband to deploy again, but we can’t stand by while something like that happens, right?

Why not? And I'm not being facetious. We don't have it in us to get into another war. On the other hand, I see Russia invading Ukraine and escalating an all out European war like WWII. The techonology will be vastly different but the result may be the same. 

[imimahoney]

I really appreciate the White House being so open and bold with their Russia news. I assume it's a tactic to build pressure on Putin but it allows Americans to see how dire the situation is.

[cattledogkisses]

Feb 21, 2022 10:31:10 GMT -5 AJL said:

Feb 21, 2022 10:00:42 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

I know Biden keeps saying we won’t be putting military boots on the ground in Ukraine, and on a personal level I certainly have no desire for my husband to deploy again, but we can’t stand by while something like that happens, right?

Why not? And I'm not being facetious. We don't have it in us to get into another war. On the other hand, I see Russia invading Ukraine and escalating an all out European war like WWII. The techonology will be vastly different but the result may be the same. 

No, you’re right I suppose. I was reacting emotionally to the idea of political dissents, LGBTQ people, and ethnic and religious minorities being killed or sent to camps on a large scale, but I know that during WWII the US largely ignored what was happening in Europe until the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor so maybe that part of history will repeat itself. 

I’ve been following all of this closely because I have a personal stake in it, but I have to remind myself that a lot of Americans are apathetic about things that happen outside of our borders that don’t personally affect them. 

[wanderingback]

Feb 21, 2022 11:36:01 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

Feb 21, 2022 10:31:10 GMT -5 AJL said:

Why not? And I'm not being facetious. We don't have it in us to get into another war. On the other hand, I see Russia invading Ukraine and escalating an all out European war like WWII. The techonology will be vastly different but the result may be the same. 

No, you’re right I suppose. I was reacting emotionally to the idea of political dissents, LGBTQ people, and ethnic and religious minorities being killed or sent to camps on a large scale, but I know that during WWII the US largely ignored what was happening in Europe until the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor so maybe that part of history will repeat itself. 

I’ve been following all of this closely because I have a personal stake in it, but I have to remind myself that a lot of Americans are apathetic about things that happen outside of our borders that don’t personally affect them. 

I’m certainly not apathetic but there is shitty stuff happening all over the world at this very second. I am not a history expert but the US doesn’t have a great track record IMO. They often make things worse, for example in some central and South American countries and then try to act like we had nothing to do with it. So anyway, I certainly think it’s an ethical question.

I mean shit is fucked up here in our own country too. Is it appropriate for another country to come attempts rescue us too?

[AJL]

Feb 21, 2022 11:36:01 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

Feb 21, 2022 10:31:10 GMT -5 AJL said:

Why not? And I'm not being facetious. We don't have it in us to get into another war. On the other hand, I see Russia invading Ukraine and escalating an all out European war like WWII. The techonology will be vastly different but the result may be the same. 

No, you’re right I suppose. I was reacting emotionally to the idea of political dissents, LGBTQ people, and ethnic and religious minorities being killed or sent to camps on a large scale, but I know that during WWII the US largely ignored what was happening in Europe until the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor so maybe that part of history will repeat itself. 

I’ve been following all of this closely because I have a personal stake in it, but I have to remind myself that a lot of Americans are apathetic about things that happen outside of our borders that don’t personally affect them. 

I totally feel where you're coming from. I know this is hard and I think it's harder when you are so much closer to the situation. I'm sorry.

[mbcdefg]

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he will decide later Monday whether to recognize the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, a move that would ratchet up tensions with the West amid fears that Moscow could launch an invasion of Ukraine imminently.

The carefully orchestrated, pre-recorded meeting of the presidential Security Council came amid a spike in skirmishes in those regions that Western powers believe Russia could use as a pretext for an attack on the western-looking democracy that has defied Moscow’s attempts to pull it back into its orbit. At the meeting, a stream of top Russian officials argued for recognizing the independence of the separatist regions, though some suggested Putin didn’t have to do it immediately.

apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-joe-biden-boris-johnson-europe-emmanuel-macron-2b7c2949ae3168effce9d0cb2584bb32


ETA: he’s done it: Russian President Vladimir Putin told the leaders of France and Germany he plans to sign a decree recognising the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities, the Kremlin says.

The French and German leaders voiced disappointment after hearing the decision, the Kremlin said in a readout of the phone calls.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/us-warns-of-possible-targeted-killings-by-russia-live-news

[anodyne]

Putin will address Russia at 1:00 Eastern, in about 15 mins.

[rubytue]

Step 1: declare regions independent

Step 2: send it columns of tanks as peacekeepers

[basilosaurus]

Feb 21, 2022 17:15:41 GMT -5 rubytue said:

Step 1: declare regions independent

Step 2: send it columns of tanks as peacekeepers

Regions that aren't even under control of those separatists. Also, Syria said they support that declaration. 

[rubytue]

I’ve been puttering around for an hour looking for a source that I don’t have to use Google translate to understand. And finally, I found a newspaper reporting it.

“ Russia orders troops into eastern Ukraine”
www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-02-21/putin-weighs-recognition-ukraine-enclaves-independent-republics

[neeps]

[mention]rubytue [/mention] The Moscow Times is a good source. It’s the English language paper we read while living in Russia. I believe it may now be the last one left.

Here’s their update.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/21/putin-orders-russian-military-to-act-as-peacekeepers-in-ukraine-regions-a76504

[rubytue]

Feb 21, 2022 21:32:26 GMT -5 neeps said:

[mention]rubytue [/mention] The Moscow Times is a good source. It’s the English language paper we read while living in Russia. I believe it may now be the last one left.

Here’s their update.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/21/putin-orders-russian-military-to-act-as-peacekeepers-in-ukraine-regions-a76504

Yeah, but what I was seeing was videos of tanks rolling down the street, with polish or russian tweets. And, errr, I don’t trust the Moscow Times to paint the same picture. 

[okla]

Feb 22, 2022 8:14:27 GMT -5 mofongo said:

mbcdefg - so does sending in peace keeper tanks/troops mean a more peaceful situation than invasion? I can’t decide if it’s saying it’s better or worse.

I think “peacekeeper tanks” answers your question here.

[mrshandy]

Ugh...this is awful. And dammit I hate being right. I told H last week that they were going to invade as soon as the Olympics were over.

This is the same thing that happened in 2014 in Sochi.

[livinitup]

Feb 22, 2022 8:14:27 GMT -5 mofongo said:

mbcdefg - so does sending in peace keeper tanks/troops mean a more peaceful situation than invasion? I can’t decide if it’s saying it’s better or worse.

”Peacekeeper” is the Putin word for Russian actions. News outlets are getting criticism for repeating it instead of using the correct term “invaders”. Putin is pushing the narrative (bold face lie) that the Ukrainians are the aggressors and he is leaping to the defense of the people.

[cattledogkisses]

Feb 22, 2022 8:14:27 GMT -5 mofongo said:

mbcdefg - so does sending in peace keeper tanks/troops mean a more peaceful situation than invasion? I can’t decide if it’s saying it’s better or worse.

Putin's "peacekeeping" claims are based on his false narrative that Ukrainians are committing genocide against ethnic Russians, so no, this is just his way of trying to justify a likely violent invasion.

[DotAndBuzz]

Feb 22, 2022 9:50:34 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

Feb 22, 2022 8:14:27 GMT -5 mofongo said:

mbcdefg - so does sending in peace keeper tanks/troops mean a more peaceful situation than invasion? I can’t decide if it’s saying it’s better or worse.

Putin's "peacekeeping" claims are based on his false narrative that Ukrainians are committing genocide against ethnic Russians, so no, this is just his way of trying to justify a likely violent invasion.

I think it was on NPR yesterday evening that someone mentioned "defending ethnic XYZ nationality" was the initial reason Hitler and Mussolini gave for their invasions. Hitler said he was trying to defend "ethnic Germans" in Poland.

So that bodes horribly in terms of context/history.

[mcppalmbeach]

I’m curious what the tenor is amongst the Russian people…Is Putin liked? Are they in favor of war?

I only have a very surface understanding of the conflict and I know there is some oil access ($$) in play, but it seems like the real crux of the issue is the influence of the west/nato on Ukraine and that being on Russia’s doorstep. War doesn’t come without loss and sacrifice and I would think after two years of Covid, Russians wouldn’t really have an appetite for a leader that wants to engage in conflict right now. I know their media is government controlled and that’s an influencing factor as well, but you think there would be a lot of dissension. I’m tired…aren’t they?

[lust2hart]

Feb 22, 2022 13:36:26 GMT -5 mcppalmbeach said:

I’m curious what the tenor is amongst the Russian people…Is Putin liked? Are they in favor of war?

I only have a very surface understanding of the conflict and I know there is some oil access ($$) in play, but it seems like the real crux of the issue is the influence of the west/nato on Ukraine and that being on Russia’s doorstep. War doesn’t come without loss and sacrifice and I would think after two years of Covid, Russians wouldn’t really have an appetite for a leader that wants to engage in conflict right now. I know their media is government controlled and that’s an influencing factor as well, but you think there would be a lot of dissension. I’m tired…aren’t they?

I don’t know how Russians feel about Putin in general, but Heather Cox Richardson’s post from today said only 10% of Russians support an invasion of Ukraine.

[Velar Fricative]

I'm pleased so far with the level of sanctions Biden declared against Russia today. They're severe, but not the severest so that gives the international community more options if things continue to worsen. I can't imagine any country out there, including the US, wants another war.

Thank goodness Trump isn't president. Granted, this didn't happen during his presidency because Putin had a perfect puppet in the WH and wasn't about to rock that boat, but still. Putin is also crazy enough that perhaps he would have still pulled this stunt if he were still POTUS.