Russia/Ukraine

[cattledogkisses]

The US is considering sending 5,000 troops to Eastern Europe, and has ordered the families of US diplomatic personnel stationed in Ukraine to leave the country.  The US government has also told US citizens living in Ukraine that they should consider leaving as soon as possible.

www.npr.org/2022/01/23/1075240355/u-s-troops-ukraine-russia-crisis

www.npr.org/2022/01/23/1075224256/ukraine-russia-border-us-embassy

The UK says it has intel that Russia is planning to install a pro-Moscow leader in Ukraine. 

www.npr.org/2022/01/23/1075199404/yevheniy-murayev-russia-ukraine-british-foreign-office

[Velar Fricative]

This is a hot mess. I noticed that Putin enjoys going for the jugular right around Olympics time when the whole world is otherwise distracted.

Do I want military engagement? No. But I don't think we should ignore what's happening either.

[rubytue]

There was someone on TV last night, I think the Secretary of State, who said “we don’t know what Putin is planning.” Really? 100,000 troops on the boarder and we don’t know?! WTH. Putin wants to restore the USSR, and if he succeeds here, I think Belorus and Poland will be next 😞

[Velar Fricative]

Jan 24, 2022 10:00:35 GMT -5 rubytue said:

There was someone on TV last night, I think the Secretary of State, who said “we don’t know what Putin is planning.” Really? 100,000 troops on the boarder and we don’t know?! WTH. Putin wants to restore the USSR, and if he succeeds here, I think Belorus and Poland will be next 😞

According to some prominent Russians (including one foreign policy analyst for the Russian government), *they* don't know what Putin is planning or why he's even doing this. That's...encouraging. 

[cattledogkisses]

Jan 24, 2022 10:00:35 GMT -5 rubytue said:

There was someone on TV last night, I think the Secretary of State, who said “we don’t know what Putin is planning.” Really? 100,000 troops on the boarder and we don’t know?! WTH. Putin wants to restore the USSR, and if he succeeds here, I think Belorus and Poland will be next 😞

Belarus I could see since Russia considers it to be Russian territory, but Poland is a member of both NATO and the EU so that would be pretty audacious. 

(As an aside, the Belarusian dictator seems like a nutter, see: the border crisis he's manufactured with the EU.)

[Velar Fricative]

Yeah I think the small Baltic countries would be next before Poland.

[cattledogkisses]

Jan 24, 2022 9:57:17 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

This is a hot mess. I noticed that Putin enjoys going for the jugular right around Olympics time when the whole world is otherwise distracted.

Do I want military engagement? No. But I don't think we should ignore what's happening either.

Yep.

H got asked if he wanted to volunteer to deploy to Poland and he said no, but I'm wondering if it's going to come up again in the future.  And here I was thinking that with 5 years until retirement and the Afghanistan war over he'd be unlikely to deploy again...

[rubytue]

Jan 24, 2022 10:19:11 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

Jan 24, 2022 10:00:35 GMT -5 rubytue said:

There was someone on TV last night, I think the Secretary of State, who said “we don’t know what Putin is planning.” Really? 100,000 troops on the boarder and we don’t know?! WTH. Putin wants to restore the USSR, and if he succeeds here, I think Belorus and Poland will be next 😞

Belarus I could see since Russia considers it to be Russian territory, but Poland is a member of both NATO and the EU so that would be pretty audacious. 

(As an aside, the Belarusian dictator seems like a nutter, see: the border crisis he's manufactured with the EU.)

Oh, yes. I realize that Poland is nato and much more complicated. But 500 years of Russia thinking they are part of Russia. 

[wesleycrusher]

My nephew is in the army- he has been "on-call" to go to the Ukraine (that was the phrase he used) for the past few months if there was military action by Russia. Wonder if he'll be sent over now pre-emptively. Ugh.

[icedcoffee]

All 4 of my grandparents were born in Ukraine. We have a lot of family and friends there. I'm just so sad about this all. It's like groundhogs day.

[dulcemariamar]

The world is rightly distracted by a pandemic that I am sure that helped the Russians with whatever plan they have going on in their head.

As a sane person, I just can’t comprehend this. We have all being living in chaos the last two years. If there is even a hint that we are slowly getting out of this COVID mess, then I can’t even begin to think what it would mean if Putin actually goes forward with his plan. Can’t we all just have a minute before the next world crisis?

[basilosaurus]

Jan 24, 2022 13:54:11 GMT -5 dulcemariamar said:

The world is rightly distracted by a pandemic that I am sure that helped the Russians with whatever plan they have going on in their head.

As a sane person, I just can’t comprehend this. We have all being living in chaos the last two years. If there is even a hint that we are slowly getting out of this COVID mess, then I can’t even begin to think what it would mean if Putin actually goes forward with his plan. Can’t we all just have a minute before the next world crisis?

Meanwhile China is probably happy Russia is providing cover for their own shenanigans.

[AJL]

I am supporting a soldier in Lithuania right now. I wonder what this will mean for him and his unit.

[midwestmama]

Jan 24, 2022 10:46:34 GMT -5 rubytue said:

Jan 24, 2022 10:19:11 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

Belarus I could see since Russia considers it to be Russian territory, but Poland is a member of both NATO and the EU so that would be pretty audacious. 

(As an aside, the Belarusian dictator seems like a nutter, see: the border crisis he's manufactured with the EU.)

Oh, yes. I realize that Poland is nato and much more complicated. But 500 years of Russia thinking they are part of Russia. 

Regarding the bolded part, I read an article on apnews.com yesterday reflecting this perspective.  Russia still sees many of the former USSR and Warsaw Pact countries as still (or should still be) under their sphere of influence, while the Western world sees these countries as independent, sovereign nations.

I work for a company that has employees in Russia, Ukraine, and Poland.  I had an interesting conversation with an employee in Poland today (who is originally from a Russian-speaking region of Moldova).  When we moved Ukraine from part of our Europe region to our Russia region around a year ago, we had an unusual number of resignations come through from Ukrainian employees.  She thought it was most likely due to those employees not wanting to be "part of Russia" in any way.

[cattledogkisses]

US says they have intelligence that Russia is planning to stage and film an elaborate fake attack to justify an invasion of Ukraine.

"The United States has information that Russia is planning to stage fabricated attacks by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces as a pretext for a further invasion of Ukraine," Price said in a Thursday briefing to reporters.

"One possible option that the Russians are considering and which we made public today involves the production of a propaganda video — a video with graphic scenes of false explosions, depicting corpses, crisis actors pretending to be mourners and images of destroyed locations or military equipment, entirely fabricated by Russian intelligence."

www.npr.org/2022/02/03/1078045214/u-s-says-russia-is-planning-a-staged-attack-in-ukraine-to-justify-an-invasion

[cattledogkisses]

Russia has deployed warships with beach landing capability to the Black Sea, essentially surrounding Ukraine from both land and sea now.

They insist it’s just a military exercise though, so I’m sure there’s nothing to see here. /s

[basilosaurus]

Concerning doesn't begin to describe. Although, that's a Susan Collins word about overthrowing democracy, so maybe it's apt.

[mbcdefg]

The Biden administration on Friday escalated its dire warnings about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying it could take place within days, even as emergency diplomatic efforts continued. Adding to the sense of crisis, officials said Biden ordered another 3,000 U.S. troops to Poland.

The White House said it still didn’t know if Russian President Vladimir Putin had made a decision to invade, but it said Putin has assembled all the elements to do so quickly and told Americans in Ukraine to leave within the next 48 hours.

apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-boris-johnson-joe-biden-europe-moscow-4d1e75eb68e1396bef885425c65039fb

[basilosaurus]

Feb 9, 2022 11:50:39 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

Russia has deployed warships with beach landing capability to the Black Sea, essentially surrounding Ukraine from both land and sea now.

They insist it’s just a military exercise though, so I’m sure there’s nothing to see here. /s

And have apparently blocked Ukrainians? Isn't seize act of war?

[Velar Fricative]

The US is temporarily closing its embassy in Kyiv and relocating operations to Lviv, a city in western Ukraine closer to Poland.

www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/ukraine-asks-for-meeting-with-russia-as-us-warns-invasion-imminent.html

[womet]

Ukraine's president is saying Russia will be attacking them on Wednesday: www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-president-says-told-russia-will-attack-wednesday-rcna16185

[heat40]

Feb 14, 2022 14:42:42 GMT -5 womet said:

Ukraine's president is saying Russia will be attacking them on Wednesday: www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-president-says-told-russia-will-attack-wednesday-rcna16185

And now they’re saying he was being sarcastic or joking.

[heat40]

I’m kind of terrified of all of this. The US is aggressively in defense mode, Ukraine seems to be not as scared. And Russia keeps moving pieces closer and closer to invasion.

I don’t know what to make of it all, but I am scared.

[AJL]

Feb 14, 2022 15:07:44 GMT -5 heat40 said:

Feb 14, 2022 14:42:42 GMT -5 womet said:

Ukraine's president is saying Russia will be attacking them on Wednesday: www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-president-says-told-russia-will-attack-wednesday-rcna16185

And now they’re saying he was being sarcastic or joking.

I was going to say that seemed oddly specific.

[AJL]

Feb 14, 2022 15:10:12 GMT -5 heat40 said:

I’m kind of terrified of all of this. The US is aggressively in defense mode, Ukraine seems to be not as scared. And Russia keeps moving pieces closer and closer to invasion.

I don’t know what to make of it all, but I am scared.

Well, if you think about it Ukraine has been under threat of "annexation" by Russia for decades. They've had heated skirmishes for the last ten years or so. The U.S. likes to swoop in like an Avenger. Of course that's really simpllying things. But the US considers itself an ally with Ukraine against big bad, former CCCP Russia.

I'm worried because I have a service member in eastern Europe that could be pulled into the fray if the US decides to militarily defend Ukraine.

[underwaterrhymes]

It looks like Ukraine is under a cyber attack right now. Several critical sites are down. This was projected to happen in advance of an invasion.

www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-reports-cyber-attack-defence-ministry-website-banks-tass-2022-02-15/

[rubytue]

Every time I see this post bumped, I think “it must have happened while I was in a meeting”

[noodleoo]

Feb 15, 2022 15:30:30 GMT -5 rubytue said:

Every time I see this post bumped, I think “it must have happened while I was in a meeting”

Me too. When I see it I say "are we at war yet?" in my head.

[rubytue]

Feb 15, 2022 15:31:54 GMT -5 noodleoo said:

Feb 15, 2022 15:30:30 GMT -5 rubytue said:

Every time I see this post bumped, I think “it must have happened while I was in a meeting”

Me too. When I see it I say "are we at war yet?" in my head.

And this time, per underwaterrhymes’s post, maybe it did. I mean, it’s make sense that the cyber attack people took down the defense ministry as a first act of war. *sighsob*

[basilosaurus]

Feb 15, 2022 15:35:23 GMT -5 rubytue said:

Feb 15, 2022 15:31:54 GMT -5 noodleoo said:

Me too. When I see it I say "are we at war yet?" in my head.

And this time, per underwaterrhymes ’s post, maybe it did. I mean, it’s make sense that the cyber attack people took down the defense ministry as a first act of war. *sighsob*

I'm torn with ambivalence. I'm completely powerless, but it's also a very real situation. I'm just ostriching over here.