October Politics

[msmerymac]

Oct 17, 2022 14:38:13 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Oct 17, 2022 13:58:52 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

I saw this. I feel like now we have to lump in Gen X with Boomers now given this graph...


DON'T KILL ME GEN X PLEASE!!!

This is a poll of just 792 people.

We need to be worried, yes, and we need to vote.

But this is some bullshit from the NYT.

Considering you only need a sample size of around 1400 to be representative of the entire US, I'm completely unsurprised that 792 people could be representative of the voting population. Also, size isn't necessarily the determining factor of whether or not a sample is truly representative. 

[msmerymac]

Oct 17, 2022 17:19:42 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Oct 17, 2022 14:38:13 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

This is a poll of just 792 people.

We need to be worried, yes, and we need to vote.

But this is some bullshit from the NYT.

Considering you only need a sample size of around 1400 to be representative of the entire US, I'm completely unsurprised that 792 people could be representative of the voting population. Also, size isn't necessarily the determining factor of whether or not a sample is truly representative. 

To follow up, 792 people, assuming a voter-eligible population of around 180 million, would equate to about a 90% confidence interval and 3% margin of error. 

www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

[kiminky]

Oct 17, 2022 17:05:34 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Oct 15, 2022 21:23:22 GMT -5 sent said:

I drove barely over the border into PA today. I was stopped at a traffic light and noticed a random "Oz for Senate" sign on the ground. It felt out of place. He's from New Jersey! I hope the people of PA are smarter than this.

I really do NOT see many Oz signs here. And I've driven into Pennsyltucky on several occasions over the last 6 or so months and they are rare. 

Mastriano signs are not rare, though Shapiro holds a 9%-15% lead over him. Even averaging the GOP's poll bias over the last 3 election cycles, which would give them maybe a 4% boost, Mastriano is very, very, very unlikely to win. *knock on wood* Oz/Fetterman is tightening, but a lot of MAGAts are either holding their noses to vote for him or skipping that race. There's not a lot of enthusiasm.

Why is it called "Pennsyltucky"?

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2022 17:53:16 GMT -5 kiminky said:

Oct 17, 2022 17:05:34 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

I really do NOT see many Oz signs here. And I've driven into Pennsyltucky on several occasions over the last 6 or so months and they are rare. 

Mastriano signs are not rare, though Shapiro holds a 9%-15% lead over him. Even averaging the GOP's poll bias over the last 3 election cycles, which would give them maybe a 4% boost, Mastriano is very, very, very unlikely to win. *knock on wood* Oz/Fetterman is tightening, but a lot of MAGAts are either holding their noses to vote for him or skipping that race. There's not a lot of enthusiasm.

Why is it called "Pennsyltucky"?

From Wikipedia:

Pennsyltucky is a slang portmanteau of the state names Pennsylvania and Kentucky. It is used to characterize—usually humorously, but sometimes deprecatingly—the rural part of the U.S. state of Pennsylvania outside the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, more specifically applied to the local people and culture of its mountainous central Appalachian region. The term is used more generally to refer to the Appalachian region, particularly its central core, which runs from Pennsylvania to Kentucky, and its people.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsyltucky

[mrsslocombe]

Oct 17, 2022 17:53:16 GMT -5 kiminky said:

Oct 17, 2022 17:05:34 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

I really do NOT see many Oz signs here. And I've driven into Pennsyltucky on several occasions over the last 6 or so months and they are rare. 

Mastriano signs are not rare, though Shapiro holds a 9%-15% lead over him. Even averaging the GOP's poll bias over the last 3 election cycles, which would give them maybe a 4% boost, Mastriano is very, very, very unlikely to win. *knock on wood* Oz/Fetterman is tightening, but a lot of MAGAts are either holding their noses to vote for him or skipping that race. There's not a lot of enthusiasm.

Why is it called "Pennsyltucky"?

The middle of the state is pretty rural and very conservative. Tim Russert once described PA as "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between." In my lifetime I have seen a little bit of a shift towards the Democrats in my hometown as the suburban areas around Lancaster and Harrisburg have developed and the community has become more diverse. 

When my high school held our mock election in 2000 Al Gore got 7 votes. Out of 300+. 

[kiminky]

Oct 17, 2022 18:26:49 GMT -5 @villainv said:

Oct 17, 2022 17:53:16 GMT -5 kiminky said:

Why is it called "Pennsyltucky"?

From Wikipedia:

Pennsyltucky is a slang portmanteau of the state names Pennsylvania and Kentucky. It is used to characterize—usually humorously, but sometimes deprecatingly—the rural part of the U.S. state of Pennsylvania outside the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, more specifically applied to the local people and culture of its mountainous central Appalachian region. The term is used more generally to refer to the Appalachian region, particularly its central core, which runs from Pennsylvania to Kentucky, and its people.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsyltucky

Thanks for that. I also see per Wikipedia it can used as a pejorative or "affectionately". Huh.

[underwaterrhymes]

Oct 17, 2022 17:23:12 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Oct 17, 2022 17:19:42 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Considering you only need a sample size of around 1400 to be representative of the entire US, I'm completely unsurprised that 792 people could be representative of the voting population. Also, size isn't necessarily the determining factor of whether or not a sample is truly representative. 

To follow up, 792 people, assuming a voter-eligible population of around 180 million, would equate to about a 90% confidence interval and 3% margin of error. 

www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

It’s a 32 point swing in one month for Independent women voters, which I think is HIGHLY unlikely.

Vote. Encourage others to vote. Expect shenanigans between now and November. Don’t let your guard down.

But I stand by my “this article and poll are bullshit” stance.

[underwaterrhymes]

I want to emphasize again that I am SUPER worried about the election. But it’s not because I think more people will vote for Republicans. It’s because of voter suppression and sneaky tactics from the GOP and certain media outlets that either makes voters think it’s hopeless to vote or persuades unmotivated voters to stay home.

[basilosaurus]

Oct 17, 2022 17:53:16 GMT -5 kiminky said:

Oct 17, 2022 17:05:34 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

I really do NOT see many Oz signs here. And I've driven into Pennsyltucky on several occasions over the last 6 or so months and they are rare. 

Mastriano signs are not rare, though Shapiro holds a 9%-15% lead over him. Even averaging the GOP's poll bias over the last 3 election cycles, which would give them maybe a 4% boost, Mastriano is very, very, very unlikely to win. *knock on wood* Oz/Fetterman is tightening, but a lot of MAGAts are either holding their noses to vote for him or skipping that race. There's not a lot of enthusiasm.

Why is it called "Pennsyltucky"?

Someone's never watched orange is the new black

[mrsukyankee]

Oct 17, 2022 16:29:24 GMT -5 pugz said:

I just ignore polling at this point.

But all the average person seems to really care about now is the price of groceries and other goods.

And what they can't see is that this isn't a democrat thing - it's a worldwide thing (and it's happening in England which has a right wing gov't who are going to make it worse). Ugh!!!

[SwimDeep]

Wrong thread

[underwaterrhymes]

More on why the NYT poll was flawed:

[mrsd2006]

**TW**
www.yahoo.com/entertainment/trump-deposed-next-week-defamation-175947159.html

TFG will have to testify today. This should be interesting.

[mrsukyankee]

Suella Braverman forced to resign as UK home secretary


Suella Braverman has been forced to resign as UK home secretary, throwing Liz Truss’s premiership into further chaos and angering the Tory right.



The Guardian was first to reveal that Braverman was departing, with Grant Shapps, the former transport secretary who strongly backed Rishi Sunak in the Conservative leadership race, set to replace her.



The departed home secretary admitted that she had sent an official document – a draft written statement on migration that was due for imminent publication – from her personal email to a fellow MP as part of policy engagement, which is against the rules.



However, her departure is a further serious blow to Truss’s authority, coming as a growing number of Tory MPs threatened to rebel in a fracking vote tabled by Labour even though they could lose the Tory whip, after the government made it a confidence issue.


I'm beyond happy with this as SB was a horrible, horrible human being. Here's a quote from her: “I would love to have a front page of The Telegraph with a plane taking off to Rwanda, that’s my dream, it’s my obsession,” (talking about asylum seekers)

[mrsd2006]

Bannon sentenced to 4 months in prison

Graham must testify in GA
www.politico.com/news/2022/10/20/georgia-lindsey-graham-testify-00062831

[mrsukyankee]

Rishi Sunak is officially our new PM as he has met with the King.

[sakoro]

Oct 19, 2022 11:54:06 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

Suella Braverman forced to resign as UK home secretary


Suella Braverman has been forced to resign as UK home secretary, throwing Liz Truss’s premiership into further chaos and angering the Tory right.




I'm beyond happy with this as SB was a horrible, horrible human being. Here's a quote from her: “I would love to have a front page of The Telegraph with a plane taking off to Rwanda, that’s my dream, it’s my obsession,” (talking about asylum seekers)

And she’s back! Amazing that these folks had immigrant parents or grandparents themselves.

[mrsukyankee]

Oct 26, 2022 7:05:19 GMT -5 sakoro said:

Oct 19, 2022 11:54:06 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

Suella Braverman forced to resign as UK home secretary


Suella Braverman has been forced to resign as UK home secretary, throwing Liz Truss’s premiership into further chaos and angering the Tory right.




I'm beyond happy with this as SB was a horrible, horrible human being. Here's a quote from her: “I would love to have a front page of The Telegraph with a plane taking off to Rwanda, that’s my dream, it’s my obsession,” (talking about asylum seekers)

And she’s back! Amazing that these folks had immigrant parents or grandparents themselves.

This is the worse decision he's made. She was forced to resign as she broke the Ministerial Code. Someone who has done that should NOT be allowed to come back to work again in the cabinet. It's angering a LOT of people.

[ellipses84]

Oct 17, 2022 19:32:46 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I want to emphasize again that I am SUPER worried about the election. But it’s not because I think more people will vote for Republicans. It’s because of voter suppression and sneaky tactics from the GOP and certain media outlets that either makes voters think it’s hopeless to vote or persuades unmotivated voters to stay home.

This is my biggest worry too. If we can’t do more for voter rights, voter suppression and gerrymandering will be even worse in the upcoming elections. It’s baffling that the polling is so close considering roevwade, the environment, equal rights issues, and that the Rs have publicly stated they are going to gut social security! Even middle to upper-middle class boomers I know are, or are planning to, rely on some social security and Medicaid during retirement. Talk to you friends and family, everyone. Let them know the financial and social impact of voting R is going to hurt way more than gas prices right now.

[mrsukyankee]

All hell is breaking loose in the UK, including national secrets potentially shared through Liz Truss's phone, which was hacked (AND SUPPRESSED BY THOSE IN POWER SO SHE COULD BECOME PM!!!) to our Home Secretary sharing information that she shouldn't with a far right MP & his group (which is why she was forced to resign and which is why SHE SHOULDN'T HAVE BEEN BROUGHT BACK INTO POWER). This Tory gov't is a fucking nightmare.

Link 1

Link 2

[mrsukyankee]

And, our anti-immigrant rhetoric from the right wing Tory gov't is now leading to worse actions by people in England:

link


Man kills himself after throwing petrol bombs at Dover immigration centre, witness says

[basilosaurus]

Are political ads particularly egregiously lying now? Or is it my lack of exposure for years that makes it so jarring now?

Brought to you by 5 ads in a row while I'm awaiting my flight. One said Stacy Abrams wants abortions at 40 weeks. Another was pro-Walker, and it basically just listed every totally false faux news talking point. That Biden's trashed the economy with "in recession" -- washington post text block. That he's opened the borders to "illegals" with a picture at a border checkpoint that could be anywhere. It's so ridiculous as to seem parody.

[carmenere]

Oct 30, 2022 14:26:20 GMT -5 basilosaurus said:

Are political ads particularly egregiously lying now? Or is it my lack of exposure for years that makes it so jarring now?

Brought to you by 5 ads in a row while I'm awaiting my flight. One said Stacy Abrams wants abortions at 40 weeks. Another was pro-Walker, and it basically just listed every totally false faux news talking point. That Biden's trashed the economy with "in recession" -- washington post text block. That he's opened the borders to "illegals" with a picture at a border checkpoint that could be anywhere. It's so ridiculous as to seem parody.

If you’re asking whether the GOP being shameless and detached from reality is a new thing…the answer is no.

[erbear]

Oct 30, 2022 14:26:20 GMT -5 basilosaurus said:

Are political ads particularly egregiously lying now? Or is it my lack of exposure for years that makes it so jarring now?

Brought to you by 5 ads in a row while I'm awaiting my flight. One said Stacy Abrams wants abortions at 40 weeks. Another was pro-Walker, and it basically just listed every totally false faux news talking point. That Biden's trashed the economy with "in recession" -- washington post text block. That he's opened the borders to "illegals" with a picture at a border checkpoint that could be anywhere. It's so ridiculous as to seem parody.

If the “Citizens for Sanity” are any indication, yes. It would be funny if I didn’t think people believed this bullshit.

[underwaterrhymes]

Lula defeated Bolsonaro!

apnews.com/article/jair-bolsonaro-religion-caribbean-voting-ed2130a095ca42ff1be324a3dea9f355

[Jalapeñomel]

Has anyone here encountered voting intimidation or weird stuff happening at the polls IRL?

[RitzyHeifer]

Nov 1, 2022 19:43:06 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

Has anyone here encountered voting intimidation or weird stuff happening at the polls IRL?

When I went to vote on campus, there was a large group of folks holding campaign signs (yard signs, which was a little weird … like were they pretending they were just out placing signs in the middle of the concrete sidewalks?) They were just far enough from the polling place to be legal, I assume, and saying things like “make the right choice for America” and “protect our state”. 

I’ll let you guess the party affiliation of the group. I might have found it intimidating to walk thru them to get into the polling place if I were younger or not white… the main populations using the campus polling place.

[TR]

Nov 1, 2022 19:43:06 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

Has anyone here encountered voting intimidation or weird stuff happening at the polls IRL?

Nope. The only thing I’ve seen here in past elections (didn’t encounter it this time) is people standing the legal distance away holding signs. And both sides. I actually volunteered for the local Democrats group as a poll greeter. We had cardboard cutouts of Biden & Harris and a table with candy.

[Bernadine]

Nov 1, 2022 19:43:06 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

Has anyone here encountered voting intimidation or weird stuff happening at the polls IRL?

We had a woman barred from electioneering- she was shouting in people’s faces and following them up to the door. This happened like 2 days ago. Of course, she was republican.

[carmenere]

Netanyahu is back 😡

amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/02/middleeast/what-netanyahus-return-means-mime-intl/index.html