Fuck. He's going to win, isn't he?

[katietornado]

[heyjude]

Can this fucking election be over already?! Jeeze I am so fucking anxious about it.

::::Howard Dean Scream::::

[mbcdefg]

Oct 31, 2016 8:38:22 GMT -5 laurack said:

I see why realtors might struggle right now to move properties in certain areas. If I drove up to an open house and saw any of that I would be out of there. We wouldn't even park the car.

We had an appointment in a somewhat well-to-do town (moreso than ours, anyway) this weekend. We've been tossing around the idea of looking for a new house and during our drive through the town we kept saying, "Oh, this place looks really nice! Maybe we ought to start looking here."

Then we kept passing a bunch of Trump signs on the road - including one HUGE sign on a realtor office's lawn - and simultaneously said, "Nope." 

[froggy76]

Oct 30, 2016 22:22:11 GMT -5 katietornado said:

Oct 30, 2016 22:01:12 GMT -5 OscarQ said:

There is one scheduled event in PA this week (as of now and the campaign schedule I could find). I'm taking that as a good sign. Their internal polling would tell them by now if they needed to sure up PA. If PA is still inside the firewall, we're good.

And I have never felt comfortable about PA from the start (is it Lauren or Katie comes in after I do my chicken little dance about PA to remind us all of the last time PA did not go blue?) so if I'm not worrying. Not yet at least.

Hahaha.  PA last went blue in 1988 to elect George HW Bush, but like the whole country did that too, so...

The Western PA blue collar white people are really throwing me off though.  Even scarier are the Scrantonians; those guys went blue in 2012, and they seem to be trending Trump this year.  But Trump voters are less likely to vote in general, so it's a really hard thing to work into a poll correctly.

However.  Trump has cratered completely with Philly and the populous Philly suburbs.  Not even Ivanka can save him there.  Or Melania (she's giving a speech in the Philly burbs on Thursday).

Given the polling lead HRC has now, I feel comfortable with PA, and I'm more than happy for Trump to waste his time there.  I trust that HRC's data operation is far more robust than is Trump's.  They flat out told interviewers that their numbers look like 538's, so why they'd send him to Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Michigan is just beyond me.

I'm still nervous about PA. I'm in the Philly 'burbs, which everyone is saying is totally wrapped up for Clinton. Yet, on my 6-mile drive to work each day I see probably 20 Trump signs and less than half as many Clinton signs. And the more I drive around the more noticeable the discrepancy is. There is a lot of Trump support here, even though news articles keep claiming that there isn't. And we have no early voting, so everything hinges on GOTV efforts on the 8th.

[ESF]

So these reports on early voting, how do they work? Are counties releasing information based on voter registration? Is the information coming from polling companies? I don't understand.

[cinderbella]

I just got my Xanax refilled. The timing of this is not a coincidence.

[elleblue]

Stop paying attention to the signs, people! The Hillary campaign hasn't focused on yard signs at all but she still gets the votes. Remember all the visible support for Bernie that translated to what, some 2 million more votes for Hillary? Trump voters are loud and in your face while a decent segment of Hillary voters are legitimately afraid of being "out" about their support for her. This election is ugly and the rhetoric espoused by the Trump campaign definitely makes me uncomfortable with putting out signs or having a magnet on my car - and I'm not even in an area where there's a huge amount of visible support for Trump, so I can only imagine what people in other areas feel like.

Also, truth be told, it was just how I was raised. My parents kept their political opinions to themselves for the most part, although they were quite passionate, because their jobs were of the type that visible politicking was discouraged.

[katietornado]

Oct 31, 2016 11:10:44 GMT -5 ESF said:

So these reports on early voting, how do they work? Are counties releasing information based on voter registration? Is the information coming from polling companies? I don't understand.

Different states do it differently.  NYT is doing an in-depth analysis of NC because of the amount of info NC provides: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Nevada also releases a lot of detail.

Other states with early voting, the information comes from exit polls and demographic analyses.

[heyjude]

Im pretty sure HRC will win. But I'm pretty terrified about what's in store for her and the administration over the next 4 years.

Never underestimate the abject hatred men in power have for a woman who reaches too high with opinions they don't like.

[wakka]

Oct 30, 2016 23:13:37 GMT -5 pantsparty said:

I've basically tuned out all election news going forward. I'm not giving it any more of my time or emotions. Of course, I'll look at any breaking news stories, but trying to analyze poll data at this point is just going to be a fucking waste of time. I'm voting, and on November 8th what will be will be. I refuse to get whipped into a frenzy at this point.

I keep saying this and then not doing it at all.

[elleblue]

Oct 31, 2016 11:23:42 GMT -5 heyjude said:

Im pretty sure HRC will win. But I'm pretty terrified about what's in store for her and the administration over the next 4 years.

Never underestimate the abject hatred men in power have for a woman who reaches too high with opinions they don't like.

I'm worried about this too. It feels like having Obama as our president riled people up and continuing on with Hillary will put many over the edge. Racism spilling into sexism, leaving some frenzied and metaphorically foaming at the mouth. 

[satsuma]

All of my frequented sites on Chrome are 538, The Atlantic, Vox...just all political stuff. For my own sanity, I really need to take a break but I keep checking them out of habit. This election has me freaked out. I agree, though, even if Hillary wins we're in for a frustrating 4 years.

[killercupcake]

Oct 31, 2016 10:52:40 GMT -5 katietornado said:

Lol. I love Ralston.

[debatethis]

Oct 30, 2016 22:46:02 GMT -5 runforrest said:

Oct 30, 2016 21:16:00 GMT -5 lilibet said:

I've driven past 3 Hillary for Prison signs this weekend. One yard had a giant sign that was clearly painted by hand with some manifesto on how HRC is ruining the world. I couldn't read it all as we drove past(and wouldn't have anyway). I'm just so entirely over this whole election. I'm pretty sure he's going to win my area but thankfully Chicago always pulls IL to the Democrats.

If it makes you feel any better, I'm just north of Evanston and all I've seen are Clinton signs.

DH works in Evanston and we're north of there as well. We've started seeing Clinton signs come out of the woodwork. I did see one (unfortunately new neighbor) person in a Trump shirt yesterday when we were trick or treating but whatever.

[jojoandleo]

Oct 31, 2016 11:24:10 GMT -5 wakka said:

Oct 30, 2016 23:13:37 GMT -5 pantsparty said:

I've basically tuned out all election news going forward. I'm not giving it any more of my time or emotions. Of course, I'll look at any breaking news stories, but trying to analyze poll data at this point is just going to be a fucking waste of time. I'm voting, and on November 8th what will be will be. I refuse to get whipped into a frenzy at this point.

I keep saying this and then not doing it at all.

It's also like when I promise not to fight strangers on my friends' FB posts and then immediately am like, "GOD YOU ARE SO STUPID, COMPLETE STRANGER!"  Self-control, I lack it.

[lulu13]

According to Survey Monkey just released on MSNBC there has been 0 change in her overall lead. She's still up by 6.

[katietornado]

Two surveys out today conducted entirely post Comey show no change.

[bowies]

I was behind a car in traffic yesterday that had a Fuck Donald Trump bumper sticker. Old white guy driving it. Faith in humanity ticked up a notch.

[cinnamoncox0]

Oct 31, 2016 9:23:28 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

I just do not understand what the fuck is wrong with people that they are proud and happy to have on display "hillary for prison" signs and are "proud" to be deplorable and will vote for Trump no matter what. This isn't an election for a local dog catcher. This is the Presidential election and the world is watching. God dammit i hate this year.

A local police officers association just the other day posted on their Facebook a big life sized Hillary (likely one of them dressed for Halloween) in an orange jumpsuit with handcuffs on and posted the pics to their Facebook all of them laughing.
They got grief for it but it made me sick that public figures like that buy into the nonsense and immaturity.
I expect it from the ignorant. I would think a police association would have better judgement but they felt ok doing this and posting about it.
(In MA)

[mbcdefg]

Oct 31, 2016 15:30:58 GMT -5 cinnamoncox0 said:

Oct 31, 2016 9:23:28 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

I just do not understand what the fuck is wrong with people that they are proud and happy to have on display "hillary for prison" signs and are "proud" to be deplorable and will vote for Trump no matter what. This isn't an election for a local dog catcher. This is the Presidential election and the world is watching. God dammit i hate this year.

A local police officers association just the other day posted on their Facebook a big life sized Hillary (likely one of them dressed for Halloween) in an orange jumpsuit with handcuffs on and posted the pics to their Facebook all of them laughing.
They got grief for it but it made me sick that public figures like that buy into the nonsense and immaturity.
I expect it from the ignorant. I would think a police association would have better judgement but they felt ok doing this and posting about it.
(In MA)

Every police officer I know hates Hillary. Every single one. 

[L From The D]

I saw my first "Hillary for Prison" bumper sticker today and it made me feel sick. Ugh, one more week!!

[Nonny]

Oct 31, 2016 11:20:58 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Stop paying attention to the signs, people!

QFT, and because it bears repeating.

I live in the bluest of blue areas outside of Seattle and I've seen exactly zero HRC lawn signs, but have a shitton of Gary Johnson signs. No way is Gary Johnson going to win King County, WA.  Signs mean nothing.

[katietornado]

8 days before the 2012 election, Barack Obama had a 79% chance of winning, per 538. Just like HRC today.

[snlhillary]

Oct 31, 2016 17:24:31 GMT -5 katietornado said:

8 days before the 2012 election, Barack Obama had a 79% chance of winning, per 538. Just like HRC today.

[snlhillary]

Oct 31, 2016 17:43:20 GMT -5 @mx said:

Oct 31, 2016 11:20:58 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Stop paying attention to the signs, people! The Hillary campaign hasn't focused on yard signs at all but she still gets the votes. Remember all the visible support for Bernie that translated to what, some 2 million more votes for Hillary? Trump voters are loud and in your face while a decent segment of Hillary voters are legitimately afraid of being "out" about their support for her. This election is ugly and the rhetoric espoused by the Trump campaign definitely makes me uncomfortable with putting out signs or having a magnet on my car - and I'm not even in an area where there's a huge amount of visible support for Trump, so I can only imagine what people in other areas feel like.

Also, truth be told, it was just how I was raised. My parents kept their political opinions to themselves for the most part, although they were quite passionate, because their jobs were of the type that visible politicking was discouraged.

My H always says "yard signs don't vote."

One time I agree with DT.

[Deleted]

Oct 31, 2016 17:43:20 GMT -5 @mx said:

Oct 31, 2016 11:20:58 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Stop paying attention to the signs, people! The Hillary campaign hasn't focused on yard signs at all but she still gets the votes. Remember all the visible support for Bernie that translated to what, some 2 million more votes for Hillary? Trump voters are loud and in your face while a decent segment of Hillary voters are legitimately afraid of being "out" about their support for her. This election is ugly and the rhetoric espoused by the Trump campaign definitely makes me uncomfortable with putting out signs or having a magnet on my car - and I'm not even in an area where there's a huge amount of visible support for Trump, so I can only imagine what people in other areas feel like.

Also, truth be told, it was just how I was raised. My parents kept their political opinions to themselves for the most part, although they were quite passionate, because their jobs were of the type that visible politicking was discouraged.

My H always says "yard signs don't vote."

Let's not forget that the Trump campaign has spent more money on HATS than it has on polling. HATS, people, HATS. Meanwhile, HRC's team is spending money targeting voters.

Fun fact: I've been getting more DNC mail than H has even though we have voted almost in lockstep for our entire marriage. He did some digging with his contacts and found out it's because I'm considered less likely to vote than him for 2 reasons:

1) We both voted in our state 2008, as well as in the 2010 midterms and 2012 recall election. However, I moved shortly before the 2012 election, so I don't show up in state voter files as having voted that year. I did vote that year, but in another state, and voter files are generally maintained on a state level. H did vote in our state in 2012 because he was still living here at that time. So basically the DNC thinks H is a sure bet to vote based on his vote history. But the DNC thinks I'm inclined to vote because I have voted but may need extra reminders because I "didn't vote" in the last presidential election.

2) I changed my name in 2015. Since I had moved away and moved back, I just registered as a new voter in for the 2016 primary instead of changing my name on my existing voter file. So the DNC thinks I'm a new voter who voted for the first time in the 2016 primaries and they want to make sure I show up in November.

That is a highly sophisticated data operation.

Trump, meanwhile, is spending his money on HATS.

[Pom]

Oct 31, 2016 15:23:45 GMT -5 bowies said:

I was behind a car in traffic yesterday that had a Fuck Donald Trump bumper sticker. Old white guy driving it. Faith in humanity ticked up a notch.

I need one of those since I'm a crabby, middle-aged nasty woman.

[katietornado]

Everyone freaking out: listen to today's 538 elections podcast. You'll feel better. Trump might be catching up but winning these states he needs to win is an extremely heavy lift. Nearly impossible.

[katfco]

Oct 31, 2016 15:42:22 GMT -5 Nonny said:

Oct 31, 2016 11:20:58 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Stop paying attention to the signs, people!

QFT, and because it bears repeating.

I live in the bluest of blue areas outside of Seattle and I've seen exactly zero HRC lawn signs, but have a shitton of Gary Johnson signs. No way is Gary Johnson going to win King County, WA.  Signs mean nothing.

Yes!  I spent the weekend volunteering at the local Hillary office, and we had so many people who wanted signs and pins, but we were all out. Signs are great, but votes are what count. 

[taratru]

My friend is a cop, and a lifelong R, and she asked me about Hillary the other day. Today she told me she's voting for her. I was so happy.