Of course we need those things. We have always needed those things.
And that youth, that energy? Even in 2016 when Trump was on the line, stayed the fuck home. In 2012 - Stayed the fuck home. Who comes out to vote? The older folks. I don't like it either. But it is what it is.
I won't be a bit surprised if Warren gets the nomination. Heck I like Warren and think she has some decent ideas! She's not necessarily my favorite (and neither is Biden), but I have crazy respect for her and think she's great. I just have zero confidence that she can beat Trump. Every Democrat response to getting anyone other than Biden across the goal line involves "Well, if we just do amazingly herculean efforts and get higher voter turnout than we've ever seen and and and...."
2020 will be nothing like 2016. Everything has changed. Don’t underestimate the younger voters.
Please know I want more than anything for you to be right.
The flippancy of, "Old people vote so fuck the youths," is grating on me.
I will never forget standing on the grounds of the Old State Capitol building when Pres. Obama declared his candidacy. I won't forget voting for him either - I was 22.
My family ran in a very conservative, Catholic circle, and it pissed that group off to see that type of energy and vigor injected into an election cycle. They pooh-poohed like those who were excited for this moment and this person potentially becoming the leader of the free world were idiots. I bet they expected that the dumb kids would stay home.
I really won't stand for people acting like there's no value in candidates who get young people, minority groups, marginalized people, etc. excited to cast a vote. They already have so much against them with all of these bullshit voting restrictions that have gone into place. Don't throw up the middle finger and act like old white people should be catered to because they rigged the vote for themselves.
Seriously. The youth vote is a vicious cycle - old people are the only ones to vote, so the candidate that gets the olds is chosen. Young people don't vote for that person because they bring nothing to the table for them. People claim the youth don't vote so KOKO with the oldz.
Look. I know the third-party/bernie voters are considered to the basically worse than Trump in these parts. But, if the answer to that particular issue from 2016 is...i dunno...doing the exact same thing, then why would we expect different results. And I am not saying that it should be Bernie over Biden. But if the DNC pushes/favors Biden while other candidates garner more enthusiasm but are not as favored, we are going to see the same shit.
And the reason why the narrative is that "we need to get more people out to vote than ever before" is because the R's have gerrymandered the system to such a degree that the only way for the D's to win is to get out the vote overwhelmingly. Its not because we need that for a non-Biden candidate to win. We need it for ANY D to win.
Post by Patsy Baloney on Aug 28, 2019 21:37:16 GMT -5
Ok, sorry, I’ve been stewing a little bit more on the flippancy of “Well, my state is blue,” and, “Young people don’t vote, and my circle would vote for Biden.” Not to beat up on you, sparky, but you know that Illinois isn’t blue. Yes, federally it is, but by me, no way. I live in the land of the idiots that want to saw off Chicago and live in an agrarian-Handmaid’s Tale hybrid society where Avery Bourne denies women the right to an abortion while sobbing into a microphone about her husband reading books to her uterus and Rodney Davis puts on a new flannel and MAGA hat at every farm he visits while reading passages from the new Book of Trump added to the Bible.
I think what’s missing from this assessment of, “Well, I’m voting for Biden because he’s comfortable or polls better with old people or people won’t leave that bubble blank or...” is missing the impact this attitude will have on local and statewide elections. I want young people and black people and brown people and shift workers and new citizens etc. etc. to be excited and go vote in the presidential election because they will change the face of local and state governments, too. It is by the grace of Chicago that Illinois is now a beacon for women’s reproductive rights in the Midwest and is finally supporting education and all the other strides we’ve made recently. Imagine if that carried downstate.
Ok, sorry, I’ve been stewing a little bit more on the flippancy of “Well, my state is blue,” and, “Young people don’t vote, and my circle would vote for Biden.” Not to beat up on you, sparky, but you know that Illinois isn’t blue. Yes, federally it is, but by me, no way. I live in the land of the idiots that want to saw off Chicago and live in an agrarian-Handmaid’s Tale hybrid society where Avery Bourne denies women the right to an abortion while sobbing into a microphone about her husband reading books to her uterus and Rodney Davis puts on a new flannel and MAGA hat at every farm he visits while reading passages from the new Book of Trump added to the Bible.
I think what’s missing from this assessment of, “Well, I’m voting for Biden because he’s comfortable or polls better with old people or people won’t leave that bubble blank or...” is missing the impact this attitude will have on local and statewide elections. I want young people and black people and brown people and shift workers and new citizens etc. etc. to be excited and go vote in the presidential election because they will change the face of local and state governments, too. It is by the grace of Chicago that Illinois is now a beacon for women’s reproductive rights in the Midwest and is finally supporting education and all the other strides we’ve made recently. Imagine if that carried downstate.
This 👏👏👏
Beto didn’t win the senate race in 2018, but the down ballot effect in Texas was undeniable.
We need a Democratic candidate that people are excited about. It’s critical to winning state and local races.
Ok, sorry, I’ve been stewing a little bit more on the flippancy of “Well, my state is blue,” and, “Young people don’t vote, and my circle would vote for Biden.” Not to beat up on you, sparky, but you know that Illinois isn’t blue. Yes, federally it is, but by me, no way. I live in the land of the idiots that want to saw off Chicago and live in an agrarian-Handmaid’s Tale hybrid society where Avery Bourne denies women the right to an abortion while sobbing into a microphone about her husband reading books to her uterus and Rodney Davis puts on a new flannel and MAGA hat at every farm he visits while reading passages from the new Book of Trump added to the Bible.
I think what’s missing from this assessment of, “Well, I’m voting for Biden because he’s comfortable or polls better with old people or people won’t leave that bubble blank or...” is missing the impact this attitude will have on local and statewide elections. I want young people and black people and brown people and shift workers and new citizens etc. etc. to be excited and go vote in the presidential election because they will change the face of local and state governments, too. It is by the grace of Chicago that Illinois is now a beacon for women’s reproductive rights in the Midwest and is finally supporting education and all the other strides we’ve made recently. Imagine if that carried downstate.
In honor of my 7th grader’s reading list - stay gold ponybaloney!
Ok, sorry, I’ve been stewing a little bit more on the flippancy of “Well, my state is blue,” and, “Young people don’t vote, and my circle would vote for Biden.” Not to beat up on you, sparky, but you know that Illinois isn’t blue. Yes, federally it is, but by me, no way. I live in the land of the idiots that want to saw off Chicago and live in an agrarian-Handmaid’s Tale hybrid society where Avery Bourne denies women the right to an abortion while sobbing into a microphone about her husband reading books to her uterus and Rodney Davis puts on a new flannel and MAGA hat at every farm he visits while reading passages from the new Book of Trump added to the Bible.
I think what’s missing from this assessment of, “Well, I’m voting for Biden because he’s comfortable or polls better with old people or people won’t leave that bubble blank or...” is missing the impact this attitude will have on local and statewide elections. I want young people and black people and brown people and shift workers and new citizens etc. etc. to be excited and go vote in the presidential election because they will change the face of local and state governments, too. It is by the grace of Chicago that Illinois is now a beacon for women’s reproductive rights in the Midwest and is finally supporting education and all the other strides we’ve made recently. Imagine if that carried downstate.
In honor of my 7th grader’s reading list - stay gold ponybaloney!
Biden is electable only because people perceive him as electable.
Have you heard a single person give a reason for why they like Biden other than he’s electable? No! Because literally nobody actually prefers Biden.
This is a HUGE problem that’s going to catch up to him.
And it’s going to catch up to all of us if we let this electability myth continue unchecked. The fastest way to lose the election is nominating a candidate no one really likes or is excited about, and who is 10 to 1 most likely to have an epic scandal emerge before Election Day. Biden is a liability.
This makes me want to get a Warren bumper sticker or something
Ok, sorry, I’ve been stewing a little bit more on the flippancy of “Well, my state is blue,” and, “Young people don’t vote, and my circle would vote for Biden.” Not to beat up on you, sparky, but you know that Illinois isn’t blue. Yes, federally it is, but by me, no way. I live in the land of the idiots that want to saw off Chicago and live in an agrarian-Handmaid’s Tale hybrid society where Avery Bourne denies women the right to an abortion while sobbing into a microphone about her husband reading books to her uterus and Rodney Davis puts on a new flannel and MAGA hat at every farm he visits while reading passages from the new Book of Trump added to the Bible.
I think what’s missing from this assessment of, “Well, I’m voting for Biden because he’s comfortable or polls better with old people or people won’t leave that bubble blank or...” is missing the impact this attitude will have on local and statewide elections. I want young people and black people and brown people and shift workers and new citizens etc. etc. to be excited and go vote in the presidential election because they will change the face of local and state governments, too. It is by the grace of Chicago that Illinois is now a beacon for women’s reproductive rights in the Midwest and is finally supporting education and all the other strides we’ve made recently. Imagine if that carried downstate.
This 👏👏👏
Beto didn’t win the senate race in 2018, but the down ballot effect in Texas was undeniable.
We need a Democratic candidate that people are excited about. It’s critical to winning state and local races.
It’s also critical to maintaining the freaking House, which is something that not nearly enough people are worrying about. If the top of the ticket sucks we are going to lose seats there. Whether we lose enough seats to lose the chamber I’m not sure, but it’s not something to be blasé about.
And it’s going to catch up to all of us if we let this electability myth continue unchecked. The fastest way to lose the election is nominating a candidate no one really likes or is excited about, and who is 10 to 1 most likely to have an epic scandal emerge before Election Day. Biden is a liability.
This makes me want to get a Warren bumper sticker or something
I have the mint green one. It’s purty. They also have magnets now!
I think it’s fair to be concerned about Warren increasing turnout. But I think if she can’t excite voters, I don’t see how Biden would be any different.
Sadly, I think that Biden calms people. Biden ain't great, but he would signify to an unfortunate number of voters "things returning to normal."
I just have a bunch of people in my sphere who left that line blank on their ballots in 2016 that have stated over and over they'd go Biden, but nobody else. They'd leave the item blank again.
I honestly don't give a shit about those people? Those aren't the people we need to convince. Those aren't the people who are going to get us over the hump. It's like trying to convince 800 white coal miners in PA to vote for the Dem. WHY?!
My mom was someone who voted for Obama in 2012 (though she rarely votes for Democrats, the debate over birth control and abortion at the time put her over the edge) and then left the president selection blank in 2016. She's a 65 year old white woman who lives in upstate NY. Why do I give a shit what she thinks or who she would vote for? She might vote for Biden, too. She's someone who votes in every election, so I'm not worried about needing people like her to turnout. She's going to sit back and start collecting social security in 2 years. She's currently very skeptical of the public school system. She's not exactly the future of Democrats (especially since she isn't even a Democrat). What we need is to capture all the younger people who were excited about Bernie, but didn't vote for whatever reason. People who weren't at all excited about the 2016 election and didn't vote. People who were too young to vote. People who just became citizens and can now vote. People who have been disenfranchised and couldn't vote in 2016 (though that's likely still an issue). I don't know how many other ways we can explain the demographics.
Also, we don't need "herculean efforts" to get unprecedented turnout. The 2018 midterms were the highest turnout midterms since 1914. Based solely on THE MOST RECENT ELECTION our turnout will be great.
I have a friend who goes on and on about how “her dad isn’t going to vote for Warren but might vote for Biden.” I don’t give a fuck about your 65 year old white dad. I just don’t. I also don’t give a fuck if my white dad says “We won’t elect a woman.” These people are not our future of the party. If it ends up being Biden, cool. BUt I am not going to base my primary vote and efforts because I am scared of what my dad thinks.
2018 was not won with white middle of the US men. It was won with women, diversity etc. That is our future. That is where our energy and focus should be.
I live in Houston and have not seen any support showing for Biden at all. I do travel in very liberal circles, so I do not know that is really reflective of the whole city. I think what we need is energy, youth, diversity, and a platform that includes social justice to get people out and motivated to vote.
There was recently a proposal to cut all funding from meals on wheels, and due to a petition, this did not go through. There are plenty of people in Texas who are liberal, but they are often written off as living in a conservative state.
Instead of trying to appeal to everyone, we need politicians who do make broad proposals. Of course, that can cause a different problem if these things can not get off the ground. I think to motivate voters, you need to tell them what you are offering and attempting to do. This offer can not be vague, like "I am better than Trump." Honestly, I think a turnip is better than him, but instead, we need people out there saying, I am campaigning for $15/hr, women's access to healthcare, a path to citizenship, or whatever they want their pet project to be. One reason Bernie has support is that he is out there shouting about what he wants. Given his track record and age, I do not believe he has the skill to get it done, but at least he is saying something, and saying it often. Other candidates do have some issues they want to work on, but they are not out there blasting it on social media to everyone who does not even want to hear about it.
Of course we need those things. We have always needed those things.
And that youth, that energy? Even in 2016 when Trump was on the line, stayed the fuck home. In 2012 - Stayed the fuck home. Who comes out to vote? The older folks. I don't like it either. But it is what it is.
I won't be a bit surprised if Warren gets the nomination. Heck I like Warren and think she has some decent ideas! She's not necessarily my favorite (and neither is Biden), but I have crazy respect for her and think she's great. I just have zero confidence that she can beat Trump. Every Democrat response to getting anyone other than Biden across the goal line involves "Well, if we just do amazingly herculean efforts and get higher voter turnout than we've ever seen and and and...."
Well jeez, don't do your part to get out and vote against the old folks or anything.
Seriously, it's great you think your vote doesn't matter. But it does. Demographics matter, statistics matter. I'm in NY, I get it. But you better be damn sure that I'm making my choice known.
Also re: my "coal miners in PA" comment - Obama won Lehigh county in 2012 (probably in 2008 too), which is "suburban" Allentown. Clinton lost it in 2016. Allentown is only about 100,000 people, about the same size as, say, Syracuse NY, Fargo ND, Athen GA, Peoria IL, Charleston SC. It kind of reminds me of the rust belt - it's a city that was developed because it's on the Lehigh river, and used to be instrumental in getting anthracite coal from the poconos down to the Delaware river. It's about 20 minutes from Bethlehem, PA, too. So lots of old manufacturing and blue collar industry that isn't there anymore.
But you know what? It's the fastest-growing city in PA, with a revitalized downtown - and they are now represented in congress, as of the 2018 election, by a woman who is a Democrat. Things are changing. The jobs and businesses that are thriving are different now. Imagine inspiring THAT area to turn blue again. A small city with a substantial millenial population and people who are starting to care about their community. Not the people in their 50s and older who think burning billion-year-old rocks is the way of the future.
Of course we need those things. We have always needed those things.
And that youth, that energy? Even in 2016 when Trump was on the line, stayed the fuck home. In 2012 - Stayed the fuck home. Who comes out to vote? The older folks. I don't like it either. But it is what it is.
I won't be a bit surprised if Warren gets the nomination. Heck I like Warren and think she has some decent ideas! She's not necessarily my favorite (and neither is Biden), but I have crazy respect for her and think she's great. I just have zero confidence that she can beat Trump. Every Democrat response to getting anyone other than Biden across the goal line involves "Well, if we just do amazingly herculean efforts and get higher voter turnout than we've ever seen and and and...."
2020 will be nothing like 2016. Everything has changed. Don’t underestimate the younger voters.
The shooting in Parkland happened in 2018 and that definitely changed everything for a lot of younger voters. I'm part of Moms Demand Action and the number of younger people who show up to gun regulation type events is consistently high and they are doing the work all by themselves, especially in high schools and college campuses. They know that the path to change goes through Congress and the White House and the local legislators. Absolutely do not underestimate them. March For Our Lives is a movement, not a moment.
Post by cattledogkisses on Aug 29, 2019 16:06:08 GMT -5
I'm still pissed off at the people I know who voted independent in 2016 because they thought it was more important to be able to sit on their high horse and feel morally superior because HRC didn't perfectly align with their values, rather than focusing on keeping Trump out of the White House, so no, I'm not going to do that. Even if the candidate is Bernie or Biden.
That said, up until the nominee is decided, I'm going to vote and campaign for my top choice(s), and not put too much stock in polling (especially at this early stage!).
I guess she didn't realize how unpopular her unpopular opinion really was. She missed the opportunity to learn that Bernie Sanders is a straight white male. Who knew?
I wasnt sure if this counts as @ content but wanted to add an anecdote. My stepdaughters are 16 and 18. They wanted to watch the democratic primary debates with us, SD18 was texting with her best friend the whole time who is volunteering for Harris (or plans to, I'm not sure if she has already started).
A little bit after Mayor Pete started running, I was talking about him and she actually told ME about the issues with his police force (the issues before the shooting in South Bend, this was way before that). SD16 turns 18 about 3 weeks after the election and she mentions how pissed she is about it every few weeks. According to her, the kids at school talk about politics fairly frequently. Wayyyyyy more than I did with my friends at their age. We are in Michigan too!
Anyway, just wanted to share about some youths I personally know that are hopefully going to save the planet from the baby boomers.
Post by downtoearth on Aug 30, 2019 9:49:09 GMT -5
Did you guys hear this today on NPR? It talked about how passionate Biden supporters are for him... at least his die-hard ones. mcsangel2, you sound way more reluctant than these people interviewed.
Of course I'm reluctant! I think there are like two people on this board who actually WANT Biden to be the nominee, first choice, all things being equal. I love Warren, but my first priority is to get someone who has the best odds of beating Trump. I didn't say no one else but Biden could beat him (though a lot of people think that way), I said it looks like Biden has the *best* odds.
Of course I'm reluctant! I think there are like two people on this board who actually WANT Biden to be the nominee, first choice, all things being equal. I love Warren, but my first priority is to get someone who has the best odds of beating Trump. I didn't say no one else but Biden could beat him (though a lot of people think that way), I said it looks like Biden has the *best* odds.
If I really thought that Biden had the best odds, I'd be all in. For the reasons mentioned in this thread, I don't.
Did you see this article? In a head to head match up, Biden beats trump by the highest percentage, but several other candidates do really well too. Keep in mind for people that don't follow politics closely, they probably don't know much about the other candidates at this point. That will change as time goes on and the number of candidates dwindles.
Of course I'm reluctant! I think there are like two people on this board who actually WANT Biden to be the nominee, first choice, all things being equal. I love Warren, but my first priority is to get someone who has the best odds of beating Trump. I didn't say no one else but Biden could beat him (though a lot of people think that way), I said it looks like Biden has the *best* odds.
If I really thought that Biden had the best odds, I'd be all in. For the reasons mentioned in this thread, I don't.
Did you see this article? In a head to head match up, Biden beats trump by the highest percentage, but several other candidates do really well too. Keep in mind for people that don't follow politics closely, they probably don't know much about the other candidates at this point. That will change as time goes on and the number of candidates dwindles.
If I really thought that Biden had the best odds, I'd be all in. For the reasons mentioned in this thread, I don't.
Did you see this article? In a head to head match up, Biden beats trump by the highest percentage, but several other candidates do really well too. Keep in mind for people that don't follow politics closely, they probably don't know much about the other candidates at this point. That will change as time goes on and the number of candidates dwindles.
Also national polls are exceptionally worthless at this point.
EXCEPTIONALLY.
I cannot reinforce enough how much every single primary in every single poll early on the person who is the most known quantity has the most support. This is true in local and state races as much as it is in national ones. Name recognition is THE biggest predictor of early success in polls, and while it is a factor in elections as well, it is much less-so if other candidates run their campaigns well and get their messages out there. Viable candidates with less name recognition tend to accrue more support as time goes on in the campaign (sometimes quite rapidly as we have seen with Harris and Warren so far in this presidential primary) and the inverse is true for the candidates with better name recognition - their attrition tends to speed up as people who preferred them based on their "known quantity" status drop off to support other candidates they're getting to know better and actually prefer.
But it's circular logic. If you sit there and insist that these early polls are predictive, you will be part of making that so. If you don't want Biden as the nominee DON'T DO THAT. This is not a done deal and none of this is static, it's based on a bazillion factors that will change and change again before election day 2020 rolls around more than a year from now.