Covid chat 2/1

[wanderingback]

The NYT morning summary had a nice positive news about vaccines. So just sharing as a reminder to remain optimistic
We can hang in there until more people get vaccinated....

(This isn't the whole review, just copying some of it, since it's not an article, can't share a link)
"Here’s the key fact: All five vaccines with public results have eliminated Covid-19 deaths. They have also drastically reduced hospitalizations. “They’re all good trial results,” Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “It’s great news.”

Many people are instead focusing on relatively minor differences among the vaccine results and wrongly assuming that those differences mean that some vaccines won’t prevent serious illnesses. It’s still too early to be sure, because a few of the vaccine makers have released only a small amount of data. But the available data is very encouraging — including about the vaccines’ effect on the virus’s variants.

“The vaccines are poised to deliver what people so desperately want: an end, however protracted, to this pandemic,” as Julia Marcus of Harvard Medical School recently wrote in The Atlantic.

Why is the public understanding more negative than it should be? Much of the confusion revolves around the meaning of the word “effective.”"

What do we care about?
In the official language of research science, a vaccine is typically considered effective only if it prevents people from coming down with any degree of illness. With a disease that’s always or usually horrible, like ebola or rabies, that definition is also the most meaningful one.

But it’s not the most meaningful definition for most coronavirus infections.

Whether you realize it or not, you have almost certainly had a coronavirus. Coronaviruses have been circulating for decades if not centuries, and they’re often mild. The common cold can be a coronavirus. The world isn’t going to eliminate coronaviruses — or this particular one, known as SARS-CoV-2 — anytime soon.

Yet we don’t need to eliminate it for life to return to normal. We instead need to downgrade it from a deadly pandemic to a normal virus. Once that happens, adults can go back to work, and children back to school. Grandparents can nuzzle their grandchildren, and you can meet your friends at a restaurant.

As Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told me this weekend: “I don’t actually care about infections. I care about hospitalizations and deaths and long-term complications.”

The data
By those measures, all five of the vaccines — from Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson — look extremely good. Of the roughly 75,000 people who have received one of the five in a research trial, not a single person has died from Covid, and only a few people appear to have been hospitalized. None have remained hospitalized 28 days after receiving a shot.

To put that in perspective, it helps to think about what Covid has done so far to a representative group of 75,000 American adults: It has killed roughly 150 of them and sent several hundred more to the hospital. The vaccines reduce those numbers to zero and nearly zero, based on the research trials.

Zero isn’t even the most relevant benchmark. A typical U.S. flu season kills between five and 15 out of every 75,000 adults and hospitalizes more than 100 of them.

[georgeglass]

In a similar vein- 

[meganew]

I love my NYT morning email, and this one set the day off on such a great start. That, and seeing an epidemiologist I follow (who has been very careful and cautious) talking about possibly traveling to see her family in California this summer by plane. I feel more optimistic every day.

[breezy8407]

I also get the NYT email, and read it before I get out of bed. It was a positive way to start the day.

MIL and FIL are getting their first doses on Wednesday! My mom got her second dose last week, so she is fully vaccinated.

[abs]

I read that email, too, and it was exactly what I needed. I feel like despite all the good news lately everything has been doom and gloom and it was nice to read something that seemed so filled with reasonable expectations. I truly think within a few months things will look a lot different. Hang in there everyone!

ETA:  I will also add that I am starting to feel a lot more optimistic because people I actually know are starting to get the vaccine.  My stepdad got his first dose two weeks ago, my mom gets her first dose tomorrow, and my MIL is scheduled for next week.  It seems like the speed is starting to pick up and I truly hope by March we can move on to the next tier.

[cattledogkisses]

My grandparents are scheduled for their first doses on the 10th. I will feel so much better when they’re vaccinated. They went to the funeral of a family member who died on Friday so now I get to worry about them for two weeks.

Meanwhile H has some college students who, even though the university canceled spring break, are still planning to take a week off from classes to go to Florida because “it’s their senior year and they deserve this.” Stupid selfish idiots.

[was5]

All of the older/higher risk people in my life have received their first shot. MIL, 2 aunts and 2 uncles (plus a co-worker) all received their first dose (eta) in Michigan last week. Most are 75+, one might just be 71. My dad and step mom are due for their second dose soon. They are in TX. Dad is only 70 but he has a lot of health complications so I'm happy he was able to get his relatively early.

I assume it will be several months before H and I will get the vaccine, but I am hopeful that we are turning a corner.

[cattledogkisses]

I know there was some discussion about this a few weeks ago, but IMO we really do need to do something about vaccine messaging. H was talking with a friend of ours yesterday who said they’re not planning to get vaccinated because “you still have to wear a mask and socially distance after you’re vaccinated so it doesn’t seem like there’s much of a point to get vaccinated.”

If people don’t feel like there are tangible benefits to getting vaccinated, especially with so much misinformation floating around about fictitious harmful effects of the vaccine, then I think that’s going to push some people to the side of not getting vaccinated.

[cap]

Feb 1, 2021 9:55:35 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

I know there was some discussion about this a few weeks ago, but IMO we really do need to do something about vaccine messaging. H was talking with a friend of ours yesterday who said they’re not planning to get vaccinated because “you still have to wear a mask and socially distance after you’re vaccinated so it doesn’t seem like there’s much of a point to get vaccinated.”

If people don’t feel like there are tangible benefits to getting vaccinated, especially with so much misinformation floating around about fictitious harmful effects of the vaccine, then I think that’s going to push some people to the side of not getting vaccinated.

The answer to that is "We WILL be able to stop wearing masks and socially distancing once enough people get vaccinated!"

[aurora]

Thanks for that optimism. I heard something similar on a podcast yesterday and it's definitely good to remember that these vaccines are game-changing, even if not rolling out as quickly as we'd like.

[aurora]

Feb 1, 2021 9:57:18 GMT -5 cap said:

Feb 1, 2021 9:55:35 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

I know there was some discussion about this a few weeks ago, but IMO we really do need to do something about vaccine messaging. H was talking with a friend of ours yesterday who said they’re not planning to get vaccinated because “you still have to wear a mask and socially distance after you’re vaccinated so it doesn’t seem like there’s much of a point to get vaccinated.”

If people don’t feel like there are tangible benefits to getting vaccinated, especially with so much misinformation floating around about fictitious harmful effects of the vaccine, then I think that’s going to push some people to the side of not getting vaccinated.

The answer to that is "We WILL be able to stop wearing masks and socially distancing once enough people get vaccinated!"

And hopefully we'll also soon have some answers as to how much the vaccines reduce transmission so that we can make science-based policy decisions on masking, etc.

[taratru]

CO's governor said teachers are moving up the priority line...starting February 8. I really want to be hopeful.

[Vespasia]

Just got my second dose. They're playing music in the vaccination area and seem to have picked all the classic jams. There was something surreal about getting vaccinated against a deadly pandemic while listening to Journey.

[Susie]

I read that NYT email this morning too. Great way to start the week.

[cap]

Feb 1, 2021 10:06:08 GMT -5 Vespasia said:

Just got my second dose. They're playing music in the vaccination area and seem to have picked all the classic jams. There was something surreal about getting vaccinated against a deadly pandemic while listening to Journey.

Was it "Don't Stop Believin'"? (not for the lyrics, but the title!)

[waverly]

I have a question for work. Once employees are fully vaccinated, do they still need to quarantine for an exposure etc.?

I know in the last post some schools have stated that teachers do not have to quarantine. However, I am waiting to hear something more official on this from the CDC or my state or local health department or others in my industry (which is not schools).

[lilypad1126]

I found out last night my 95 yo grandma is fully vaccinated! I'm so relieved. She lives in an assisted living facility so this was necessary. And, once my mom is fully vaccinated (which happens next week) and quarantines for 2 weeks, she'll then be able to go see grandma in person. First time grandma's had in person visitors since March 10th last year! I know this is a huge relief to everyone in my family.

I'm feeling like I'll never be vaccinated, but I'm trying to just be happy that my more at risk family members are safer now.

[georgeglass]

Feb 1, 2021 10:30:30 GMT -5 waverly said:

I have a question for work. Once employees are fully vaccinated, do they still need to quarantine for an exposure etc.?

I know in the last post some schools have stated that teachers do not have to quarantine. However, I am waiting to hear something more official on this from the CDC or my state or local health department or others in my industry (which is not schools).

We still have not gotten clear guidance on this. It's possible our local health dept is still deciding.

[pugz]

My FIL gets his second shot this week but MIL is just shy of 70 and hasn’t gotten her first yet. Hopefully appts will open up soon to her age group.

[Vespasia]

Feb 1, 2021 10:23:43 GMT -5 cap said:

Feb 1, 2021 10:06:08 GMT -5 Vespasia said:

Just got my second dose. They're playing music in the vaccination area and seem to have picked all the classic jams. There was something surreal about getting vaccinated against a deadly pandemic while listening to Journey.

Was it "Don't Stop Believin'"? (not for the lyrics, but the title!)

Sadly, no. That would have been very appropriate!

[lacey]

Can I ask the stupidest of questions? Is it true that in order to transmit Coronavirus you need to have the virus, as would be detected in the anti body titers?

If Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 95% effective would they not decrease the transmission by that amount as well since those people are not getting the virus at all and therefore not able to transmit it?

Is the discussion on vaccinated individuals ability to transmit the virus limited to the 5% who are still catching Covid and therefore able to transmit it (potentially in asymptomatic cases)?

[meganew]

Feb 1, 2021 11:25:49 GMT -5 lacey said:

Can I ask the stupidest of questions? Is it true that in order to transmit Coronavirus you need to have the virus, as would be detected in the anti body titers?

If Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 95% effective would they not decrease the transmission by that amount as well since those people are not getting the virus at all and therefore not able to transmit it?

Is the discussion on vaccinated individuals ability to transmit the virus limited to the 5% who are still catching Covid and therefore able to transmit it (potentially in asymptomatic cases)?

I think it’s not that 95% didn’t get the virus (we don’t have that data), it’s that 95% didn’t get any symptoms of Covid after vaccination. It’s very possible that they didn’t get Covid at all, but we weren’t testing trial participants for active Covid infections.

At least that’s my understanding.

[waverly]

There is a lot of unknown, so I don't think any questions are dumb lacey .

I have a couple more vaccine ones of my own. 1. If a person is fully vaccinated, do they have a recommendation on the type of mask they wear? I know they are suggesting double masking, N95 type, or masks with filters now. So I was just curious if being vaccinated affected that.

2. I work 4 days a week in person with the public and also sharing an office (not 6 feet apart). Once vaccinated, would you start transitioning your schedule to 5 days a week? We are an in-person type organization because we serve the public and in normal times hundreds of people a day. The company policy was if you could to work 1 day a week from home to try to discourage the spread of Covid. 

[RoxMonster]

I was able to make a vaccine appointment for myself at Kroger tomorrow night! So excited!

[lacey]

Feb 1, 2021 11:31:42 GMT -5 meganew said:

Feb 1, 2021 11:25:49 GMT -5 lacey said:

Can I ask the stupidest of questions? Is it true that in order to transmit Coronavirus you need to have the virus, as would be detected in the anti body titers?

If Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 95% effective would they not decrease the transmission by that amount as well since those people are not getting the virus at all and therefore not able to transmit it?

Is the discussion on vaccinated individuals ability to transmit the virus limited to the 5% who are still catching Covid and therefore able to transmit it (potentially in asymptomatic cases)?

I think it’s not that 95% didn’t get the virus (we don’t have that data), it’s that 95% didn’t get any symptoms of Covid after vaccination. It’s very possible that they didn’t get Covid at all, but we weren’t testing trial participants for active Covid infections.

At least that’s my understanding.

That was my understanding as well, but then I started reading a summary of the Pfizer trial and it seemed like the 95% effectively was based on something that happened 7 days post second vaccine dose. And this is where I definitely got lost - was it a symptom check? Was it titers? And then the participants do daily electronic journal symptom updates for months - so I understand how that is not catch asymptomatic cases. But I don’t think the effectivity is calculate based on the e-journal updates from what I read. But I can definitely be wrong here.

[anodyne]

The U.S. could soon have its first over-the-counter, at-home COVID test:

• Results to your smartphone in 15 minutes
• 95% accuracy

The test kits will be able to detect the virus through a self performed test in 15 mins & with 95% accuracy. The government is awarding the company $230M to scale up manufacturing with 8.5M tests guaranteed to U.S.

[wanderingback]

Feb 1, 2021 10:30:30 GMT -5 waverly said:

I have a question for work. Once employees are fully vaccinated, do they still need to quarantine for an exposure etc.?

I know in the last post some schools have stated that teachers do not have to quarantine. However, I am waiting to hear something more official on this from the CDC or my state or local health department or others in my industry (which is not schools).

Our health department hasn't changed guidance yet. We've kept track of who has been vaccinated, so that when guidance does change we can follow it. 

[wanderingback]

Feb 1, 2021 10:43:52 GMT -5 lilypad1126 said:

I found out last night my 95 yo grandma is fully vaccinated! I'm so relieved. She lives in an assisted living facility so this was necessary. And, once my mom is fully vaccinated (which happens next week) and quarantines for 2 weeks, she'll then be able to go see grandma in person. First time grandma's had in person visitors since March 10th last year! I know this is a huge relief to everyone in my family.

I'm feeling like I'll never be vaccinated, but I'm trying to just be happy that my more at risk family members are safer now.

Yay so exciting!

My 103 year old grandma will be getting her 2nd vaccine soon.
I don't want to jinx anything, but she survived the 1918 pandemic and hopefully she'll survive this one too as she still does have quality of life!

[rubytue]

In vaccine rollout debacle news, MD is such crap. We are officially in 1c. But my county is all “not that 1c, and even not that 1b either.” Just age. None of the other things in b or c count. I’m kinda glad I’m not in b any more, just for the stress impact of nit being able to find or get a vaccine. So, it’s still moving goal posts. I was annoyed enough when they changed the categories after they started 1a. But it’s still changing.

[erbear]

Feb 1, 2021 8:06:52 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

The NYT morning summary had a nice positive news about vaccines. So just sharing as a reminder to remain optimistic
We can hang in there until more people get vaccinated....

(This isn't the whole review, just copying some of it, since it's not an article, can't share a link)
"Here’s the key fact: All five vaccines with public results have eliminated Covid-19 deaths. They have also drastically reduced hospitalizations. “They’re all good trial results,” Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “It’s great news.”

Many people are instead focusing on relatively minor differences among the vaccine results and wrongly assuming that those differences mean that some vaccines won’t prevent serious illnesses. It’s still too early to be sure, because a few of the vaccine makers have released only a small amount of data. But the available data is very encouraging — including about the vaccines’ effect on the virus’s variants.

“The vaccines are poised to deliver what people so desperately want: an end, however protracted, to this pandemic,” as Julia Marcus of Harvard Medical School recently wrote in The Atlantic.

Why is the public understanding more negative than it should be? Much of the confusion revolves around the meaning of the word “effective.”"

What do we care about?
In the official language of research science, a vaccine is typically considered effective only if it prevents people from coming down with any degree of illness. With a disease that’s always or usually horrible, like ebola or rabies, that definition is also the most meaningful one.

But it’s not the most meaningful definition for most coronavirus infections.

Whether you realize it or not, you have almost certainly had a coronavirus. Coronaviruses have been circulating for decades if not centuries, and they’re often mild. The common cold can be a coronavirus. The world isn’t going to eliminate coronaviruses — or this particular one, known as SARS-CoV-2 — anytime soon.

Yet we don’t need to eliminate it for life to return to normal. We instead need to downgrade it from a deadly pandemic to a normal virus. Once that happens, adults can go back to work, and children back to school. Grandparents can nuzzle their grandchildren, and you can meet your friends at a restaurant.

As Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told me this weekend: “I don’t actually care about infections. I care about hospitalizations and deaths and long-term complications.”

The data
By those measures, all five of the vaccines — from Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson — look extremely good. Of the roughly 75,000 people who have received one of the five in a research trial, not a single person has died from Covid, and only a few people appear to have been hospitalized. None have remained hospitalized 28 days after receiving a shot.

To put that in perspective, it helps to think about what Covid has done so far to a representative group of 75,000 American adults: It has killed roughly 150 of them and sent several hundred more to the hospital. The vaccines reduce those numbers to zero and nearly zero, based on the research trials.

Zero isn’t even the most relevant benchmark. A typical U.S. flu season kills between five and 15 out of every 75,000 adults and hospitalizes more than 100 of them.

I just read that and cried. Thank you for sharing this - it's hopeful and optimistic, and we need that.