Support is breaking across generational lines more this year. I find that really interesting. The olds like Biden and the youngs like Bernie. The middles ( oh god, this is me) are kind of all over the place but seem to consolidate around Pete. This is probably why I’m struggling so much. I’m middle aged and want an experienced candidate who isn’t 100 years old.
I like Amy. I think she will start to take a beating that Warren took all summer/fall. She is unvetted especially by the misogynistic media. She will start getting torn down soon.
Which I don't think it is a terrible thing. We need to see how tough she is. But she probably will get more questions/concerns than any of the men have gotten thus far.
I actually do think she is a strong candidate. Maybe that is my bias as well because there has been a lot less hand wringing about her to date.
Bingo. I have been trying to find articles written by POC for this reason. I just can't imagine Sanders, Pete, or Klobuchar are at the top of their lists.
But Bernie does get decent support from POC. I'll have to gather stats after my meetings this morning, but I do know the age divide is stark. For example, Biden gets a ton of older black support, but Bernie gets a lot of young black support. Warren gets some support, and then among the rest, very little. And then there's Bloomberg and I still don't know wtf to think of him and his base right now.
The older POC support is what I am interested in. That is a pretty reliable block of voters. I am dying to know what they think.
I live in PA. We have a democratic governor who is in a second term. He just expanded a lot of voting rights - much longer early voting period, no roadblocks to request an absentee/mail-in ballot, etc. also, each county basically had to redo their voting system last year - my county has paper sheets you bubble in, then watch them scan it, then you get a little tear-off receipt. People are mad that it takes awhile, but it’s a solid paper trail. (But my county is blue anyway.)
I’m not sure if Tony Evers or Gretchen Whitmer have had time to implement better voting methods, honestly.
My precints does the bubble sheets with the tear off receipt (MI). I think that is uniform throughout the state, but i confess i am not sure if any precincts still use the punch card style ballot.
I’m also in MI. My precinct (and the other precincts in the area I have lived in the past few years) have the bubble sheets but no tear off receipt. I haven’t heard of any punch card ballots in the area, but I also don’t know if anyone still uses them in the state.
Sure, 20% is great for Amy but it’s still 3rd and she still has no traction with POC. The next two states lean heavily with black and Hispanic voters which she seems to have no play with. You can’t win the nomination with 3rd place or less in each state. Same for Pete.
I’m pretty sure it’s going to be Bernie. He does do better with POC this time around. He will probably eke out a narrow win in SC and NV and then it’s probably over. But he didn’t bring out the youth vote and he isn’t leading a GOTV Revolution if you look at the first two states. So that makes him an even scarier prospect in the general. His whole schtick is that he is going to bring new voters out. But he’s not.
Essentially I feel pretty dismal about it all. Thanks a lot New Fucking Hampshire. And you too Iowa.
Sure, 20% is great for Amy but it’s still 3rd and she still has no traction with POC. The next two states lean heavily with black and Hispanic voters which she seems to have no play with. You can’t win the nomination with 3rd place or less in each state. Same for Pete.
I’m pretty sure it’s going to be Bernie. He does do better with POC this time around. He will probably eke out a narrow win in SC and NV and then it’s probably over. But he didn’t bring out the youth vote and he isn’t leading a GOTV Revolution if you look at the first two states. So that makes him an even scarier prospect in the general. His whole schtick is that he is going to bring new voters out. But he’s not.
Essentially I feel pretty dismal about it all. Thanks a lot New Fucking Hampshire. And you too Iowa.
I blame Joe Biden TBH He should have never got into this race
Yes and all the mod candidates are canibilizing each other. With Warren on life support, Bernie becomes the last Prog standing and can just watch amy/Pete/Biden go after the same pool.
I agree with heyjude on this. The moderate vote is split up and Warren is not splitting the progressive vote. Bernie has the clearest path to victory. Or it's going to be a complete cluster at the convention. I'm trying to come to terms that he is going to be the nominee.
But honestly, I'm not convinced anyone could beat Trump. He has a huge head start in this race. All the democratic money is being split amongst these candidates fighting for the nomination and all the republican money is being directed towards one candidate. I kind of hate the length of the primary process and the length of the presidential race. People shouldn't be running for President for a year and a half. But that's a whole other thread.
The economy is too strong at this point for anyone to beat the incumbent in my opinion and it sucks.
Now I’m curious about NH people. What’s the story?
I know NE has its pockets of conservatism but NH was pretty much the only red NE state in most of my life. They seem to have an independent streak. Not too long ago they made history having an all-female governor, US Representatives and Senators, I believe. They don’t seem to like seat belts.
And that is my knowledge of NH in a nutshell. I’ve been there once though.
Don’t forget helmets! I see too many motorcycle riders pull over at the border to take their helmets off. And, subsequently, too many reports of fatalities in motorcycle accidents.
I’m not surprised Bernie won here. Disappointed, but not surprised.
Post by cattledogkisses on Feb 12, 2020 9:55:20 GMT -5
I can’t find it now, but someone had posted awhile ago that Biden had strong support with black voters, and that’s giving me pause with regards to wishing he would drop out.
Today I kind of wish I was a Bernie bro/babe so I could feel some hope/excitement...alas...
Yeah. Even Rachel Bitecofer, of the optimistic electoral map, said Bernie will be the most challenging. He’ll ultimately depress turnout in key demographics.
I am terrified Bernie gets the nom and has another heart attack before Nov
That's a scenario I hadn't thought about. What happens if the nominee dies before the election? Does the DNC replace them with the runner up?
The real constitutional crisis is if he dies between the election and the inauguration. There's no mechanism in the constitution for swearing in the VP-elect, although obviously that's what the DNC will push for and Trump will use as an excuse to stay in office.
Today I kind of wish I was a Bernie bro/babe so I could feel some hope/excitement...alas...
Yeah. Even Rachel Bitecofer, of the optimistic electoral map, said Bernie will be the most challenging. He’ll ultimately depress turnout in key demographics.
We had a conversation with a moderate colleague last week who I thought had some sense, but he said he would vote Trump over Bernie. I don't think he is alone.
Well I feel pretty defeated tonight and see no victories for anyone. What a mess.
And why the excitement for Amy? Coming in third in the whitest state means almost nothing. You think this will carry her in NV and SC? Also I heard her speech tonight. It moves no mountains.
She has no ground game in any other state. Warren's campaign director sent out an announcement right as polls were closing last night that they have hope for strong finishes in the upcoming states, especially on Super Tuesday, and that this has always been a 50 state + 7 territory strategy for them. 55 locations to go! She has tons of boots on the ground (and I suspect she'll do okay in NV because Harry Reid is endorsing her, as well as Super Tuesday - AS LONG AS the "disappointing" finishes in IA and NH don't turn people away from her and towards Bernie or Amy), while Amy, and to a certain extent Pete, are scrambling to get people to NV and SC, let alone the Super Tuesday states, some of which are already early voting.
That said, Amy is a distant second choice for me. It's infuriating that she's doing so well while Harris had to drop out 2+ months ago, partially based on Berners yelling about Harris's prosecutorial record, while Klobuchar has the same, or worse, in her background. My H was lamenting that Harris and Booker are both gone from the race and we're left with Amy and Pete, basically.
BUT my H and I also agree - we like Bernie's more liberal ideas better than Amy's moderation, but Amy would be, by far, a more effective president. As a result, she's a distant second choice for me, after Warren. Plus, I'm just sick of all old white men at the moment.
That's a scenario I hadn't thought about. What happens if the nominee dies before the election? Does the DNC replace them with the runner up?
The real constitutional crisis is if he dies between the election and the inauguration. There's no mechanism in the constitution for swearing in the VP-elect, although obviously that's what the DNC will push for and Trump will use as an excuse to stay in office.
If this fucking happens we have to do Weekend at Bernie's in real life with a real actual Bernie in order to save this country. Then he can officially "die" after the swearing-in and we get our new president who better not fucking be Tulsi Gabbard.
That's a scenario I hadn't thought about. What happens if the nominee dies before the election? Does the DNC replace them with the runner up?
The real constitutional crisis is if he dies between the election and the inauguration. There's no mechanism in the constitution for swearing in the VP-elect, although obviously that's what the DNC will push for and Trump will use as an excuse to stay in office.
“...about one in five people who have had a heart attack will be readmitted to the hospital for a second one within five years. Each year, there are about 335,000 recurrent heart attacks in the United States.” American Heart Association
Post by Velar Fricative on Feb 12, 2020 10:23:53 GMT -5
The wild card is still Bloomberg. I know he says he'll support any D at least financially, but I think the reason he got into this race is because he realized Bernie had a strong shot. So even if he doesn't win the nomination, he's probably spending a shitload of money to prevent Bernie from getting the nomination. All that to say, I have no idea what the fuck is going to happen in the coming weeks. It does help that we're not going immediately into Nevada or South Carolina and hopefully the regroup period and the fact that America has little collective memory means someone else will gather more momentum.
The real constitutional crisis is if he dies between the election and the inauguration. There's no mechanism in the constitution for swearing in the VP-elect, although obviously that's what the DNC will push for and Trump will use as an excuse to stay in office.
If this fucking happens we have to do Weekend at Bernie's in real life with a real actual Bernie in order to save this country. Then he can officially "die" after the swearing-in and we get our new president who better not fucking be Tulsi Gabbard.
So, Pete is not my first choice but I am a little curious why he is always glossed over as being nothing more than white male privilege. He has that, yes, but he's also gay, which means he hasn't benefited from being white and male the same way as most. I think having a gay man doing this well is actually pretty amazing. He is the same age as me, and we both are from the midwest, and I know he grew up in a world very different from what it is today where he probably was not loved and accepted by his peers and probably struggled a lot to find his place in the world (not that kids today necessarily have it easy, but 20+ years ago I witnessed first hand just how hard it was and I'm glad we've had a lot of progress there). To have a kid like that grow up to run for President and actually have a true shot at becoming the nominee - that's big, even if we aren't in love with him otherwise.
Well I feel pretty defeated tonight and see no victories for anyone. What a mess.
And why the excitement for Amy? Coming in third in the whitest state means almost nothing. You think this will carry her in NV and SC? Also I heard her speech tonight. It moves no mountains.
She has no ground game in any other state. Warren's campaign director sent out an announcement right as polls were closing last night that they have hope for strong finishes in the upcoming states, especially on Super Tuesday, and that this has always been a 50 state + 7 territory strategy for them. 55 locations to go! She has tons of boots on the ground (and I suspect she'll do okay in NV because Harry Reid is endorsing her, as well as Super Tuesday - AS LONG AS the "disappointing" finishes in IA and NH don't turn people away from her and towards Bernie or Amy), while Amy, and to a certain extent Pete, are scrambling to get people to NV and SC, let alone the Super Tuesday states, some of which are already early voting.
That said, Amy is a distant second choice for me. It's infuriating that she's doing so well while Harris had to drop out 2+ months ago, partially based on Berners yelling about Harris's prosecutorial record, while Klobuchar has the same, or worse, in her background. My H was lamenting that Harris and Booker are both gone from the race and we're left with Amy and Pete, basically.
BUT my H and I also agree - we like Bernie's more liberal ideas better than Amy's moderation, but Amy would be, by far, a more effective president. As a result, she's a distant second choice for me, after Warren. Plus, I'm just sick of all old white men at the moment.
Thank you for this. It is making me feel better about everything.
I saw something where at least one of the big unions in Nevada is warning members that Bernie would throw out their union health plan. That's an angle I hadn't really thought about and gives me some hope that Bernie will underperform there.
Not that it matters, but I would be curious to know how Harris would be doing if she was still in it. If I remember correctly, she was polling ahead of Amy when she dropped out. I wonder if there would have been a similar surge had she stuck around.
I think what is happening with Bernie is exactly why we ended up with Trump. There were a lot of republicans that hated him, but they were splitting the vote between the more "normal" candidates. (In quotes, because as normal as a Republican can be in my book). It allowed Trump to end up at the top of the pack, just like Bernie. I guess the optimistic point of view is that we never thought Trump could win in the general and he did. So, maybe there is hope for Bernie. Since I'm a pessimist, I don't actually believe this is the case.
Still, it is early so I'm not going to write off anything yet.
So, Pete is not my first choice but I am a little curious why he is always glossed over as being nothing more than white male privilege. He has that, yes, but he's also gay, which means he hasn't benefited from being white and male the same way as most. I think having a gay man doing this well is actually pretty amazing. He is the same age as me, and we both are from the midwest, and I know he grew up in a world very different from what it is today where he probably was not loved and accepted by his peers and probably struggled a lot to find his place in the world (not that kids today necessarily have it easy, but 20+ years ago I witnessed first hand just how hard it was and I'm glad we've had a lot of progress there). To have a kid like that grow up to run for President and actually have a true shot at becoming the nominee - that's big, even if we aren't in love with him otherwise.
Imagine a black female mayor of a small city saying the exact things he does. Is she the front runner of the Democratic nomination?
So, Pete is not my first choice but I am a little curious why he is always glossed over as being nothing more than white male privilege. He has that, yes, but he's also gay, which means he hasn't benefited from being white and male the same way as most. I think having a gay man doing this well is actually pretty amazing. He is the same age as me, and we both are from the midwest, and I know he grew up in a world very different from what it is today where he probably was not loved and accepted by his peers and probably struggled a lot to find his place in the world (not that kids today necessarily have it easy, but 20+ years ago I witnessed first hand just how hard it was and I'm glad we've had a lot of progress there). To have a kid like that grow up to run for President and actually have a true shot at becoming the nominee - that's big, even if we aren't in love with him otherwise.
Imagine a black female mayor of a small city saying the exact things he does. Is she the front runner of the Democratic nomination?
Doubtful, which is where I do think Pete does benefit. Elizabeth and Amy both benefit from their whiteness too, even though being a woman puts them at a disadvantage. It's not coincidence that everyone left in the race is white. I just think Pete is not exactly the same as all the other white men who have run before. He's breaking a glass ceiling that previously existed for an LGBTQ person. I guess it is frustrating that the first LGBTQ person to do that is a white male and I imagine it would still be hard for a woman, POC of either any gender, or trans person to get this far... but I do think it's significant nonetheless.
So, Pete is not my first choice but I am a little curious why he is always glossed over as being nothing more than white male privilege. He has that, yes, but he's also gay, which means he hasn't benefited from being white and male the same way as most. I think having a gay man doing this well is actually pretty amazing. He is the same age as me, and we both are from the midwest, and I know he grew up in a world very different from what it is today where he probably was not loved and accepted by his peers and probably struggled a lot to find his place in the world (not that kids today necessarily have it easy, but 20+ years ago I witnessed first hand just how hard it was and I'm glad we've had a lot of progress there). To have a kid like that grow up to run for President and actually have a true shot at becoming the nominee - that's big, even if we aren't in love with him otherwise.
He's young and his only elected experience is being the mayor of a tiny town. Only a white guy could possibly have gotten the attention he's gotten. Case in point - ever heard of Wayne Messam? He's a black man who is the mayor of a city in Florida that is bigger than South Bend, who was also running for the Dem nomination. He dropped out today. And then there's Castro and Booker, who served as mayors of much larger cities, have comparable if not more impressive academic credentials, and had additional experience on the national stage, both of whom were dismissed by the media.
I don't want to make light of his experiences and struggles as a gay man. Yes, he's had his challenges and I think it's really incredible to see a gay person winning states and commanding respect. It makes me proud to be part of this party,but I can feel that and feel deeply saddened by what his victory says about everyone else in the race.
Can you honestly say that you don't see how he can be the beneficiary of privilege if he were to win? Are you not bothered by the idea of a small town mayor on the helm, with someone like Harris, a prosecutor, head of one of the largest state agencies in the country, and a sitting senator, to be his sidekick, promoting his experience and readiness for office?
Yeah. Even Rachel Bitecofer, of the optimistic electoral map, said Bernie will be the most challenging. He’ll ultimately depress turnout in key demographics.
We had a conversation with a moderate colleague last week who I thought had some sense, but he said he would vote Trump over Bernie. I don't think he is alone.
I've always been a bit to the left of essentially every candidate the Dems have run in my lifetime, and even I would have to hold my nose if we're talking about a Bernie/Tulsi ticket. The DNC better have a good strategy for GOTV, and try to get Bernie to pick an appropriate running mate, if he's the nominee. Sanders/Harris, Sanders/Abrams, Sanders/Warren, Sanders/Duckworth, Sanders/Cortez Masto. SOMETHING decent.
I like Amy. I think she will start to take a beating that Warren took all summer/fall. She is unvetted especially by the misogynistic media. She will start getting torn down soon.
Which I don't think it is a terrible thing. We need to see how tough she is. But she probably will get more questions/concerns than any of the men have gotten thus far.
I actually do think she is a strong candidate. Maybe that is my bias as well because there has been a lot less hand wringing about her to date.
I am worried about her skeletons, but (perhaps naively) I am not worried about how tough she is. I see her withstanding the BS that is thrown at her and throwing it back. Maybe I am wrong, but leaving her other issues aside for this comment only, I think she is pretty tough.
So, Pete is not my first choice but I am a little curious why he is always glossed over as being nothing more than white male privilege. He has that, yes, but he's also gay, which means he hasn't benefited from being white and male the same way as most. I think having a gay man doing this well is actually pretty amazing. He is the same age as me, and we both are from the midwest, and I know he grew up in a world very different from what it is today where he probably was not loved and accepted by his peers and probably struggled a lot to find his place in the world (not that kids today necessarily have it easy, but 20+ years ago I witnessed first hand just how hard it was and I'm glad we've had a lot of progress there). To have a kid like that grow up to run for President and actually have a true shot at becoming the nominee - that's big, even if we aren't in love with him otherwise.
He's young and his only elected experience is being the mayor of a tiny town. Only a white guy could possibly have gotten the attention he's gotten. Case in point - ever heard of Wayne Messam? He's a black man who is the mayor of a city in Florida that is bigger than South Bend, who was also running for the Dem nomination. He dropped out today. And then there's Castro and Booker, who served as mayors of much larger cities, have comparable if not more impressive academic credentials, and had additional experience on the national stage, both of whom were dismissed by the media.
I don't want to make light of his experiences and struggles as a gay man. Yes, he's had his challenges and I think it's really incredible to see a gay person winning states and commanding respect. It makes me proud to be part of this party,but I can feel that and feel deeply saddened by what his victory says about everyone else in the race.
Can you honestly say that you don't see how he can be the beneficiary of privilege if he were to win? Are you not bothered by the idea of a small town mayor on the helm, with someone like Harris, a prosecutor, head of one of the largest state agencies in the country, and a sitting senator, to be his sidekick, promoting his experience and readiness for office?
Well, I don't think I said any of your third paragraph in my post, so no. Of course he benefits from white privilege, but it's more nuanced than that, that's all I'm trying to point out.
I've always been team Warren and Harris, and I'm pissed that Harris isn't in the race. I don't plan to vote for Pete in the primary. I don't think he has the experience or the life experience to be President. Being the same age as me makes me feel even less confident in him, lol. I can barely run my own life much of the time so the idea of a peer having that big of a job sounds nuts.
This surprises me not at all. NH people are quite a unique demographic among New Englanders and they were never going to go for Warren. I'm not worrying for her until we see what happens on Super Tuesday.
Now I’m curious about NH people. What’s the story?
In addition to what other posters said, politically NH is strongly libertarian.
(And yes, it tends to translate to some weirdly lax personal safety laws. We always joked that the state motto should have been "Live free and die.")
We had a conversation with a moderate colleague last week who I thought had some sense, but he said he would vote Trump over Bernie. I don't think he is alone.
I've always been a bit to the left of essentially every candidate the Dems have run in my lifetime, and even I would have to hold my nose if we're talking about a Bernie/Tulsi ticket. The DNC better have a good strategy for GOTV, and try to get Bernie to pick an appropriate running mate, if he's the nominee. Sanders/Harris, Sanders/Abrams, Sanders/Warren, Sanders/Duckworth, Sanders/Cortez Masto. SOMETHING decent.
Bernie's running mate gives me an ulcer.
If he picks someone "pure", we'll lose. If he picks a normal person, the assholes who voted for him in the primary won't show up in the general because he sold out and they need to teach the DNC a lesson, and we'll still lose.
He's young and his only elected experience is being the mayor of a tiny town. Only a white guy could possibly have gotten the attention he's gotten. Case in point - ever heard of Wayne Messam? He's a black man who is the mayor of a city in Florida that is bigger than South Bend, who was also running for the Dem nomination. He dropped out today. And then there's Castro and Booker, who served as mayors of much larger cities, have comparable if not more impressive academic credentials, and had additional experience on the national stage, both of whom were dismissed by the media.
I don't want to make light of his experiences and struggles as a gay man. Yes, he's had his challenges and I think it's really incredible to see a gay person winning states and commanding respect. It makes me proud to be part of this party,but I can feel that and feel deeply saddened by what his victory says about everyone else in the race.
Can you honestly say that you don't see how he can be the beneficiary of privilege if he were to win? Are you not bothered by the idea of a small town mayor on the helm, with someone like Harris, a prosecutor, head of one of the largest state agencies in the country, and a sitting senator, to be his sidekick, promoting his experience and readiness for office?
Well, I don't think I said any of your third paragraph in my post, so no. Of course he benefits from white privilege, but it's more nuanced than that, that's all I'm trying to point out.
I've always been team Warren and Harris, and I'm pissed that Harris isn't in the race. I don't plan to vote for Pete in the primary. I don't think he has the experience or the life experience to be President. Being the same age as me makes me feel even less confident in him, lol. I can barely run my own life much of the time so the idea of a peer having that big of a job sounds nuts.
Same. I'd be much more willing to give him a look if he had even TWO YEARS experience as a senator, a la Obama or JFK.