November Politics - Election Week

[mrsd2006]

Oprah endorsed Fetterman. I bet Oz is furious.

[rupertpenny]

Nov 4, 2022 7:47:17 GMT -5 Bad Dingo said:

www.axios.com/2022/11/04/trump-presidential-run-2024-announcement?stream=top&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_all

I'm very curious if DeSantis will announce as well. I hope they eat each other alive (literally or figuratively, either is fine).

I know DeSantis has no shame, but announcing a presidential run 5 minutes after you were re-elected as governor is a very bad look. Even if by some miracle Charlie Crist wins that race, announcing that you want to be president 5 minutes you have just been handed a big, fat, L seems like bad optics too. 

[Bad Dingo]

rupertpenny, true. I saw a debate (or was it an interview?) where he refused to say that he would stay in office the full term. I feel like everyone knows what his goal is so he wouldn't care about optics.

[heat40]

Nov 4, 2022 8:26:02 GMT -5 rupertpenny said:

Nov 4, 2022 7:47:17 GMT -5 Bad Dingo said:

www.axios.com/2022/11/04/trump-presidential-run-2024-announcement?stream=top&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_all

I'm very curious if DeSantis will announce as well. I hope they eat each other alive (literally or figuratively, either is fine).

I know DeSantis has no shame, but announcing a presidential run 5 minutes after you were re-elected as governor is a very bad look. Even if by some miracle Charlie Crist wins that race, announcing that you want to be president 5 minutes you have just been handed a big, fat, L seems like bad optics too. 

It’s absolutely bad optics, but it’s what he’ll do. And he has so many fans outside of Florida that he doesn’t care if some may see it as a bad move.

[ellipses84]

www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna55170

A restraining order was issued against the armed group near the polls in AZ. They have to stay further away, which is great because in addition to being armed and intimidating, they were videotaping people putting their ballots in the box which will be much more difficult to do at a distance.

DeathSantis always does what will further his political career and doesn’t GAF about all those people in his state, half of who will still vote for him anyway.

[Deleted]

I'm in PA and simultaneously happy and terrified. Shapiro is absolutely crushing Mastriano in the polls, so I'm feeling cautiously optimistic. I don't feel warm and fuzzy at all about Fetterman. The polls are just too darn close right now with some even showing that Oz has taken the lead. We're finally getting rid of Toomey, and now we might be stuck with Oz? I just can't even.

[mrspez07]

Nov 2, 2022 14:56:17 GMT -5 mrspez07 said:

I’m in a suburban county in the Denver metro, and the clerk sends out election updates regularly this time of year, here’s the stats. Also remember we have another weekend for people to sit with their ballots (especially when you have drop boxes), and I’m guessing that’s where the younger segment is at. Also, I haven’t turned mine in.

Ballot returns
We have received 92,677 ballots (22% turnout) through Monday:
From registered Democrats: 32,051 (26%)
From registered Republicans: 24,018 (25%)
From unaffiliated voters: 35,806 (18%)
From minor party voters: 802 (11%)

I’m hoping some of these numbers are indicative of the rest of the country’s turnout:
Friday morning’s update:
We have received 137,770 ballots (33% turnout) through Thursday:
From registered Democrats: 46,461 (38% turnout)
From registered Republicans: 35,766 (37% turnout)
From unaffiliated voters: 54,315 (28% turnout)
From minor party voters: 1,228 (17% turnout)

I also saw something that was a positive spin on polls. That historical precedent would have polls showing the Rs winning by a lot (mid terms with D president, inflation, etc), and the fact that the polls are nearly 50-50 in many places means D’s are making strides not seen before in this kind of situation, they should be behind by more. Of course that means little if they don’t actually win, but the fact that they are close is something worth valuing.

[somersault72]

It's really close here in OH, which is disheartening because I think JD Vance is such a dumbass. I heard so much hype about Hillbilly Elegy and I read it and I was like WTF did I just read and that was years ago when it came out. I shudder to think about him being a senator.

[heat40]

anecdote...Just voted, and it felt busier than normal. I also overheard a GOP volunteer say "enough with the blue!" as we passed by with our dem cheat sheet. lol. guess a lot of us decided to vote today. keep it up everyone!!

[aurora]

Small thing, but I was happy to find a small bin of "I voted" stickers attached to my ballot dropbox last night. I've missed those!

[fernweh]

The most amazing thing happened-

@@@
As I mentioned up thread abortion rights is on the ballot in Michigan. I went to visit my parents today and my dad who has always been very anti-abortion (he has even told me before he thinks if a woman is raped she should have the baby and give it up for adoption) told he voted Yes on his absentee ballot which would make abortion rights a constitutional right.

Color me shocked! He explains it’s because of this scenario and that scenario that he knows of happening to people he knows - all were relating to the health of the mother, or the baby with severe health problems, plus we don’t have a system set up to support mothers with child care etc.

At the end he says - plus I’ve come to realize I may not agree with it being used to end a healthy pregnancy but it’s not my place to tell you that you can’t. That’s between you, your doctor, and God.

I have been trying to make this point to him for YEARS. I don’t know what finally made it sink it but I legitimately teared up. He is almost 70 years old and is finally coming around.

[ellipses84]

[mention]fernweh [/mention]

That’s amazing and gives me hope! I think a lot of people have changed their mind on the issue or think what R’s are proposing is way too extreme.

It’s seems like in TX a lot of longtime Rs of all ages are voting for Beto, so a lot of minds have been changed. If the majority of unaffiliated and some of the Rs in red areas vote blue, we should be ok.

[cous0226]

Nov 4, 2022 7:47:17 GMT -5 Bad Dingo said:

www.axios.com/2022/11/04/trump-presidential-run-2024-announcement?stream=top&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_all

I'm very curious if DeSantis will announce as well. I hope they eat each other alive (literally or figuratively, either is fine).

I think he probably will. His ego won’t let him sit and wait for another 4 years.

[cous0226]

Looks like it’s starting already.

[bronxgirl]

Nov 6, 2022 6:26:39 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

Looks like it’s starting already.

. And I’m totally here for it. One bright shining moment in the nihilistic nightmare our country’s political landscape has become.

[carmenere]

Ron DeSanctimonious 🤣 I am shocked that Mr. Bigly even knows a word with that many letters but I am here for it.

[underwaterrhymes]

I’m anxious but hopeful.

I really want to believe the polls have been purposefully skewed. They’re seeing great turnout by youth in early voting and there are significantly more Democrats than there are Republicans. We just have to show up.

But I’m trying very hard to mitigate that optimism with a healthy dose of realism based on the shenanigans the GOP continues to pull. Their intimidation and marginalization efforts have been remarkably effective and they’re motivated.

It’s absolutely terrifying to think of losses because this midterm could spell the end of democracy. So I’m trying to just breathe and hope that we pull this one off.

[gretchenindisguise]

We voted this weekend and I’m glad to have our ballots in.

On the way home we passed another couple walking to turn in their ballots. We acknowledged each other and I said “yay voting!” and the dude responded “eff yeah. Gotta take our country back!!” H and I started laughing, it seemed better than crying.

This election cycle is very messy here. Our elementary school board vote is messy. Our secondary school district vote is messy and complete with one candidate hosting a party with possible underage drinking and a stabbing that happened outside. The State Senate race is contentious. Our mayoral race is bonkers, with one candidate spreading so much vitriol and threatening a journalist. Joe Biden came to town for our House race. It’s just every level seems to be hanging on a pin this year.

I’m ready for it to be done, but if Tuesday goes poorly, I’ll be sad I wished away today.

[Velar Fricative]

I feel like this is going to be a very "down is up, up is down" kind of election where there won't be much sense made of some kind of discernible pattern except that voters will want something different. So that could mean, like, OK gets a D governor but NY gets an R governor.

[BlondeSpiders]

Nov 6, 2022 21:57:06 GMT -5 carmenere said:

Ron DeSanctimonious 🤣 I am shocked that Mr. Bigly even knows a word with that many letters but I am here for it.

If it makes you feel better, I'll bet you one Powerball jackpot that he can't spell the word.

[heat40]

I don't trust any polls anymore. I've seen all the doom and gloom regarding the dems, but then I see others pull up numbers showing how dems are doing way better than 2020 in the early voting. then you have the GOP practically already planning what they will do, and what bills they will put up as if they have it in the bag.

I've donated and made sure everyone in my friend group voted. so I guess just go ahead and make the rounds with your groups and make sure everyone voted. I feel defeated already though. I hate it.

[pixy0stix]

Republicans sue to disqualify thousands of mail ballots in swing states - www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/07/gop-sues-reject-mail-ballots/

[pixy0stix]

There's a total eclipse blood moon tomorrow. Which isn't a portent of anything to come... www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1134688501/lunar-eclipse-this-week-november-2022

[mrspez07]

I’m working as an election judge today (CO),
It’s Monday and our polling place is very quiet, we’ve had 4 in person voters in 2.5 hours. We’ve had probably 20 people drop off mail ballots. We’re probably over staffed which is typical from what I’ve seen from working 2020.

[ellipses84]

Nov 7, 2022 12:07:46 GMT -5 heat40 said:

I don't trust any polls anymore. I've seen all the doom and gloom regarding the dems, but then I see others pull up numbers showing how dems are doing way better than 2020 in the early voting. then you have the GOP practically already planning what they will do, and what bills they will put up as if they have it in the bag.

I've donated and made sure everyone in my friend group voted. so I guess just go ahead and make the rounds with your groups and make sure everyone voted. I feel defeated already though. I hate it.

I’m trying to have hope today. There’s R poll stacking so when they lose they can use polls as a reason to contest the results. Sites like 538 are aggregating the polling but they have to show all the chances… so flip a coin 100 times, 55 times it goes to R and 45 it goes to D for Senate.

That doesn’t match the population of voter numbers I’m seeing on targetearly.targetsmart.com . For Georgia, 538 shows 42/100 for D, 58/100, yet the target smart website predicts 200k more D than R voters. D % is up from 2018 and 2020, and R % is down. There’s almost 250k unaffiliated voters and that is more than double the 2018 number. I think polls are unpredictable because the unaffiliated voters are unpredictable. If they vote 50-50, D would win GA by 200k. I anticipate more than 50% of unaffiliated will vote D. Those numbers are still so close for polling to be accurate.

[agnes]

I’m volunteering at a ballot box tomorrow. It’s supposed to rain all day. Not looking forward to standing in the rain

[shortstax]

Current lead story on Cincinnati Enquirer website right now is that insiders allege/predict that Trump may announce his 2024 presidency bid tonight at a Vance campaign rally.

*Insert puke face here*

[estrellita]

I'm trying not to be anxious but I can't help it. We have such terrible people running for everything and I'm honestly worried, particularly about governor, AG, and SOS. Hoping for the best!

[suburbanzookeeper]

Nov 7, 2022 16:30:45 GMT -5 shortstax said:

Current lead story on Cincinnati Enquirer website right now is that insiders allege/predict that Trump may announce his 2024 presidency bid tonight at a Vance campaign rally.

*Insert puke face here*

If he announces the GOP will no longer cover his legal bills, apparently: news.yahoo.com/rnc-no-longer-cover-trumps-122648646.html

[RoxMonster]

It’s been bonkers busy at our election commission all weekend. H went Sat and there was about 50 people in line so he left and went back yesterday. Got there before they opened and there was already a line. I voted on my lunch hour Friday and waited about 30 min.

There was a bit of a yelling match where one guy started yelling at someone dropping off a mail-in ballot that “If you can come here to drop it off, you can vote in person.” The other guy told him to mind his damn business and left but the guy just kept carrying on until an election worker went over to him. My lord 🙄

I’m nervous. We’ve got to keep Pritzker in IL. I really can’t imagine Bailey winning but I also couldn’t imagine Trump winning so I try to not get my hopes up too high.