November Politics - Election Week

[ellipses84]

Update: 2 day until Election Day!

I turned in my ballot on Saturday.


6 days until Election Day!

The polls are looking worse for Senate Dems every day. What are your thoughts about polls vs. record early voter turnout?

Share your articles and random commentary.

[woowoo]

I'm already thinking I'm going to want to get drunk on Nov 9th.

[msmerymac]

Nov 2, 2022 11:45:54 GMT -5 woowoo said:

I'm already thinking I'm going to want to get drunk on Nov 9th.

I don't think we'll know the final makeup of the senate by then. And if we do... well, you're right, that's bad. 

Like, I sent my ballot in a week and a half ago and got a notice last Thursday that it was received. But I'm in PA and they legally can't start counting mail-in ballots until 8 PM on 11/8.

[ellipses84]

I’m freaking out and so anxious. I’ve not been on here much because every spare minute has been to GOTV and support Democrats. I’ve sent letters, donated more $, contacted friends and family, and shared messages about policies. I’m hoping it’s been quiet on the board because everyone is doing the same. I personally haven’t dropped off my ballot yet because of all that, but I’m in a blue state that makes voting easy.

I’m hoping the 18-40 age bracket is not being accurately represented, voters are being quiet because they are decided and do plan to vote, polls are inaccurate and pollsters are being conservative because the are afraid of being wrong again. I feel ok about TX, GA, and PA, knowing they could still go either way, not great about recent news for AZ and NV and I’m very worried about FL voters.

I feel like all the mainstream media is so negative and Dems could have such strong messaging that is being drowned out by the negativity about the economy. Like, WTF are people going to do when social security is gutted so they will have no money or medical during retirement? So many Dems are making inspirational speeches on the campaign trail that would resonate with most sane Americans, but the sound bytes aren’t getting to everyone and so much air time is devoted to the worst Rs.

Edited to remove @

[ellipses84]

A Stacy Abrams ad listed donations with first names and there were so many $1 donations. Every $1 or $5 can make a difference 💜

There was some social media summit in DC and Obama made cameos in a bunch of political influencers Tik Toks. They are silly but great and you know the people were just losing their minds that day.

[Jalapeñomel]

I’m hoping the negativity is a ploy to get dems out to vote.

But it’s not looking good here in NY, and my hope is that the youngest voters are being underestimated and will save us all.

[Velar Fricative]

Nov 2, 2022 12:18:21 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

I’m hoping the negativity is a ploy to get dems out to vote.

But it’s not looking good here in NY, and my hope is that the youngest voters are being underestimated and will save us all.

I really wanted to be wrong over the summer when I had a nagging feeling Zeldin could win and only now do people believe that's an actual threat. All you need are a bunch of people who are like "I want a change" from inflation, crime, etc. and there you go, we get Governor Zeldin.

[Jalapeñomel]

Nov 2, 2022 12:38:54 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Nov 2, 2022 12:18:21 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

I’m hoping the negativity is a ploy to get dems out to vote.

But it’s not looking good here in NY, and my hope is that the youngest voters are being underestimated and will save us all.

I really wanted to be wrong over the summer when I had a nagging feeling Zeldin could win and only now do people believe that's an actual threat. All you need are a bunch of people who are like "I want a change" from inflation, crime, etc. and there you go, we get Governor Zeldin.

The political ads about Zeldin being tough on crime are intense and seems to be the angle they’re going for this week. And yet he has no plans to actually be “tough on crime” whatever that is.

[pixy0stix]

A local campaign here has been publishing the reports they get get from the county re: voter statistics via reddit. The 60-80 crowd is vastly outpacing any other age group. The 18-30 crowd, despite them having by far the most registered numbers, has turned in the least amount of ballots. CO makes it stupid easy to vote, too. So... I dunno. I'm worried about the implications.

[erbear]

I have a very bad feeling about this. I would like to be wrong.

[karinothing]

I am going to be in Jamaica on election day. Thinking that was probably the right move.

[Jalapeñomel]

Nov 2, 2022 12:52:34 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

A local campaign here has been publishing the reports they get get from the county re: voter statistics via reddit. The 60-80 crowd is vastly outpacing any other age group. The 18-30 crowd, despite them having by far the most registered numbers, has turned in the least amount of ballots. CO makes it stupid easy to vote, too. So... I dunno. I'm worried about the implications.

This is mind blowing to me. My bubble leads me to believe they are going to turn out in record numbers (which I know isn’t true but it’s how my bubble has skewed me).

[mrspez07]

I’m in a suburban county in the Denver metro, and the clerk sends out election updates regularly this time of year, here’s the stats. Also remember we have another weekend for people to sit with their ballots (especially when you have drop boxes), and I’m guessing that’s where the younger segment is at. Also, I haven’t turned mine in.

Ballot returns
We have received 92,677 ballots (22% turnout) through Monday:
From registered Democrats: 32,051 (26%)
From registered Republicans: 24,018 (25%)
From unaffiliated voters: 35,806 (18%)
From minor party voters: 802 (11%)

[mrspez07]

I am also working as a judge in a voting center again this year (did in 2020). The focus is on bi-partisan checks and balances, but this article makes me uneasy.

www.npr.org/2022/11/02/1132822805/election-violence-concerns-voting-threats

Other random thoughts:
In 2020 the poll watcher that stayed all day was R, I’m hoping the poll workers with me aren’t whacksdoos this year, and 2 years ago I worked a center at a church near my house where the “church” guys spent the day in the parking lot, mostly in their truck, making sure things were “safe”. Luckily voters likely couldn’t see them and we kept an eye on their activities.

[imimahoney]

I'm terrified.

There is this data/programmer guy on twitter who swears up and down the Dems will keep the house and gain 2 seats in the Senate. I have no idea how he is so sure but I deeply hope he is correct.

** I'm assuming we will lose the house bt a bunch and possibly the Senate.

[pixy0stix]

Nov 2, 2022 14:05:52 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

Nov 2, 2022 12:52:34 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

A local campaign here has been publishing the reports they get get from the county re: voter statistics via reddit. The 60-80 crowd is vastly outpacing any other age group. The 18-30 crowd, despite them having by far the most registered numbers, has turned in the least amount of ballots. CO makes it stupid easy to vote, too. So... I dunno. I'm worried about the implications.

This is mind blowing to me. My bubble leads me to believe they are going to turn out in record numbers (which I know isn’t true but it’s how my bubble has skewed me).

I think the university here is messing with the numbers a bit. BUT, I'd also think that segment would be involved in politics. So who knows.

[msmerymac]

Nov 2, 2022 13:57:32 GMT -5 karinothing said:

I am going to be in Jamaica on election day. Thinking that was probably the right move.

I'm going to be on the other side of my state, in Trump Country. Definitely not the right move. 

[msmerymac]

The GOP will win the governorship in AZ. And FL and TX. And Nevada and Oregon aren't looking great. And Tony Evers is questionable in Wisconsin.

But the Dems will win in PA, and in ME (thankfully preventing Paul LePage from making a comeback). And Laura Kelly in KS! And no matter what anyone says, Zeldin will NOT win in NY. Nope. Not happening.

[fernweh]

Im not sure if it’s required for this but just in case
@@@@@

Michigan has Proposition 3 that would make abortion rights a constitutional right.

I’m really nervous- there are signs up everywhere to create confusion and honestly flat out lies.
Also women really need to get to the polls. I was reading an article that stated the proposition is supported by 75% of women but only 45% of men. I hate that men even get a vote on this.

[bronxgirl]

I knew all along that I would be very anxious about this election and it could be really bad. But I never thought NY could end up with a MAGA governor. I'm physically nauseous.

[aurora]

Nov 2, 2022 14:56:17 GMT -5 mrspez07 said:

I’m in a suburban county in the Denver metro, and the clerk sends out election updates regularly this time of year, here’s the stats. Also remember we have another weekend for people to sit with their ballots (especially when you have drop boxes), and I’m guessing that’s where the younger segment is at. Also, I haven’t turned mine in.

Ballot returns
We have received 92,677 ballots (22% turnout) through Monday:
From registered Democrats: 32,051 (26%)
From registered Republicans: 24,018 (25%)
From unaffiliated voters: 35,806 (18%)
From minor party voters: 802 (11%)

This seems positive in that Colorado unaffiliated voters tend to lean liberal.

I haven't turned in my ballot yet; probably tonight or tomorrow. I think the younger crowd can often be more last-minute.

[mrsd2006]

I'm in GA and very very nervous and in shock and disbeliefe that anyone could think Walker is a good candidate.

[imimahoney]

Nov 2, 2022 15:50:25 GMT -5 imimahoney said:

I'm terrified.

There is this data/programmer guy on twitter who swears up and down the Dems will keep the house and gain 2 seats in the Senate. I have no idea how he is so sure but I deeply hope he is correct.

** I'm assuming we will lose the house bt a bunch and possibly the Senate.

If anyone is interested, here is the guy.

[lust2hart]

I'm in Kansas. Polls in August were so massively, impressively wrong about the constitutional amendment that I'm choosing to believe they're wrong this time, too. 

[SwimDeep]

Nov 3, 2022 9:37:29 GMT -5 mrsd2006 said:

I'm in GA and very very nervous and in shock and disbeliefe that anyone could think Walker is a good candidate.

same 😵‍💫

[Jalapeñomel]

Nov 3, 2022 9:46:23 GMT -5 imimahoney said:

Nov 2, 2022 15:50:25 GMT -5 imimahoney said:

I'm terrified.

There is this data/programmer guy on twitter who swears up and down the Dems will keep the house and gain 2 seats in the Senate. I have no idea how he is so sure but I deeply hope he is correct.

** I'm assuming we will lose the house bt a bunch and possibly the Senate.

If anyone is interested, here is the guy.

But if the GOP loses, how can they call foul if the polls don’t side with them?

[dutchgirl678]

Mueller She Wrote thread about polls / crowd size

I have stopped looking at polls. They are wrong and deliberately so. Mueller she wrote had an interesting thread on twitter (I linked the thread put together by threadreaderapp). The main gist of it is that the GOP is lying about the polls because they want to make you feel anxious. They want to make you feel like you are outnumbered. They want to make you feel like the situation is hopeless.

I am looking at the number of early voters and in most states Dems are outnumbering their early vote numbers in 2020, specifically in GA and PA. And of course we don't know who people are voting for. AZ looks like more Rs have voted so far. Will they really elect Kari Lake as their governor? I hope not. And I'm worried about my own state, OR. I really want Tina Kotek to win and she should be able to if all Democrats vote for her. I see the most signs for I (former D but not really) Betsy Johnson in rural areas which would mean she takes votes away from Christine Drazan. But who knows what the votes will look like in the end. Anyway, check out your state:

targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022

[ellipses84]

[mention]dutchgirl678 [/mention]

That makes sense to me and I feel a little better. I feel like statistically looking at the demographics compared to 2020 vs. 2016 and roevwade impact/ recent Kansas election, the polls aren’t accurate (but 2016 happened). There has to be a huge margin of error with all of the unaffiliated voters.

Oprah just came out in support of Fetterman against Oz (and is actively, publicly supporting other Dems for this midterm election election).

[aurora]

A lot of the polls are within the margin of error. I think we really can't be certain about much.

I filled out my ballot today and will drop it off tomorrow.

[Bad Dingo]

www.axios.com/2022/11/04/trump-presidential-run-2024-announcement?stream=top&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_all

I'm very curious if DeSantis will announce as well. I hope they eat each other alive (literally or figuratively, either is fine).