How are some races projected so early? CCN is projecting Rand Paul to win KY but there's only 18% in. Is that b/c it's KY and there's not a chance in hell for a D to win? Is it not always based on the number of precints reporting?
Post by biscoffcookies on Nov 8, 2022 20:11:45 GMT -5
One of the things I saw recently had a commentator saying he was starting to worry polls were pulling a 2016 but in reverse — failing to account for things that cut in the Dems favor and so possibly allowing for things to surprise go for Dems.
I know it’s unlikely but damn it I was hoping it would turn out to be true for Florida. (As well as other races)
How are some races projected so early? CCN is projecting Rand Paul to win KY but there's only 18% in. Is that b/c it's KY and there's not a chance in hell for a D to win? Is it not always based on the number of precints reporting?
I think in the big picture candidates who were heavily favored in polling and then have the early returns align with the polling are the ones whose races are called first. Different organizations do it slightly differently but that's the main idea.
How are some races projected so early? CCN is projecting Rand Paul to win KY but there's only 18% in. Is that b/c it's KY and there's not a chance in hell for a D to win? Is it not always based on the number of precints reporting?
Yes. And then data science/survey statistics on exit polls. I just saw MD projecting Moore as governor with like 225 votes in. Not precincts. Votes.
"Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies-"God damn it, you've got to be kind.”
Rationally I understand the dynamics that are leading to terrible people like this guy and MTG and whatnot winning.
Emotionally I cannot figure out how to come to terms with the fact that people who are so unapologetically awful aren’t being rejected by my fellow humans - and they’re not just tolerated but are celebrated and elevated. I know I have to figure out a way not to let it impact me so much because right now it’s really coloring how I view the world and function, but so far not having much success. Tips welcome if any of you have had this struggle and found a way.