Democrats openly talk about replacing Biden

[elleblue]

Ohio is another hurdle no one seems to be considering. Their ballot deadline is before the convention.

[Susie]

Jun 28, 2024 14:29:25 GMT -5 Nugget T. Brain, The OG said:

People don't like Warren, Klobuchar is boring, Newsom is too tied into California. Pete, Whitmer, and Jefferies are all good options but they aren't ready to hit the ground running this late in the game. They should be grooming them as the next gen of Democratic leadership.

I think any presidential aspirations Klobuchar had, died when George Floyd was murdered by Minneapolis police.  She's just tied too tightly to the wrong side of that, as the former county prosecutor in the county where Minneapolis sits.

[neverfstop]

I know we’re not supposed to post social media but I adore these ladies and their work/discussions. I can’t wait to listen to their podcast about it.

We still have a choice… time to make tough choices

Who the heck is head of the DNC these days??

ETA- here is their podcast & it's very therapeutic... He's not up for campaigning, he may or may not be up for being POTUS (but at least he's surrounded by good people governing around him, even if they refuse to tell him to drop off)
www.pantsuitpoliticsshow.com/show-archives/2024/6/28/america-lost-the-debate 

http://instagram.com/p/C8xYxS6y058

[ellipses84]

No matter how awful the R candidate is, the party backs them and R’s don’t panic when he’s convicted of 34 felonies, found liable of SA or lies throughout an entire debate. Biden doesn’t do as well as we wanted in one debate and the sky is falling for Dems. That panic narrative impacts the perception of undecided and potential non-voters, who probably did not watch the debate or even know it was happening until they see people complain about it on social media. I don’t think we can predict the outcome for any alternative at this point in the election cycle, as being any better or worse for votes in swing states than Biden.

I think there’s a lot of people who are Dem President or Never Trump no matter what what for 2024 (even former Republicans and 2016/2020 Trump voters) due to the Supreme Court, Roe V. Wade, Jan. 6 and felonies/ indictments. We have to engage more Dem/ undecided but likely Dem voters down ballot because when it comes down to it, they will check the box for Biden. I expect he’ll step down before 4 years is up and we’ll have our first female President which I will be happy for. Considering the age of both candidates, it’s also important we win the house as the Speaker of the House will become the VP. We don’t even know who the R VP (and possible future president) will be only that they will be a deplorable who formerly criticized their Orange Jesus and now worships him.

[litasail]

The New York Times editorial board just called on him to step aside. I audibly gasped when I saw. Wow.

[mccallister84]

Jun 28, 2024 17:22:55 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

No matter how awful the R candidate is, the party backs them and R’s don’t panic when he’s convicted of 34 felonies, found liable of SA or lies throughout an entire debate. Biden doesn’t do as well as we wanted in one debate and the sky is falling for Dems. That panic narrative impacts the perception of undecided and potential non-voters, who probably did not watch the debate or even know it was happening until they see people complain about it on social media. I don’t think we can predict the outcome for any alternative at this point in the election cycle, as being any better or worse for votes in swing states than Biden.

I think there’s a lot of people who are Dem President or Never Trump no matter what what for 2024 (even former Republicans and 2016/2020 Trump voters) due to the Supreme Court, Roe V. Wade, Jan. 6 and felonies/ indictments. We have to engage more Dem/ undecided but likely Dem voters down ballot because when it comes down to it, they will check the box for Biden. I expect he’ll step down before 4 years is up and we’ll have our first female President which I will be happy for. Considering the age of both candidates, it’s also important we win the house as the Speaker of the House will become the VP. We don’t even know who the R VP (and possible future president) will be only that they will be a deplorable who formerly criticized their Orange Jesus and now worships him.

The speaker of the house will not become the VP. The new president will appoint a VP who will need to be approved by both houses of Congress.

[TR]

Jun 28, 2024 17:43:01 GMT -5 litasail said:

The New York Times editorial board just called on him to step aside. I audibly gasped when I saw. Wow.

The NYT can go fuck themselves, honestly. Who gives a shit what they say.

[babsbunny]

Jun 28, 2024 11:02:58 GMT -5 penguingrrl said:

Jun 28, 2024 10:21:39 GMT -5 kadams767 said:

Did I miss something?  Why would Trump not attack Michelle Obama?

Trump would absolutely attack Michelle, not even a question.

Also, Michelle has made it extremely clear that she is not a politician and there is absolutely no chance of her ever returning to the White House.

You're both right. I meant to say his attacks wouldn't work well on Michelle. There are no skeletons he can make up and she's respected. (Though I accept I could be wrong.)

[jlt19]

Jun 28, 2024 17:49:24 GMT -5 mccallister84 said:

Jun 28, 2024 17:22:55 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

No matter how awful the R candidate is, the party backs them and R’s don’t panic when he’s convicted of 34 felonies, found liable of SA or lies throughout an entire debate. Biden doesn’t do as well as we wanted in one debate and the sky is falling for Dems. That panic narrative impacts the perception of undecided and potential non-voters, who probably did not watch the debate or even know it was happening until they see people complain about it on social media. I don’t think we can predict the outcome for any alternative at this point in the election cycle, as being any better or worse for votes in swing states than Biden.

I think there’s a lot of people who are Dem President or Never Trump no matter what what for 2024 (even former Republicans and 2016/2020 Trump voters) due to the Supreme Court, Roe V. Wade, Jan. 6 and felonies/ indictments. We have to engage more Dem/ undecided but likely Dem voters down ballot because when it comes down to it, they will check the box for Biden. I expect he’ll step down before 4 years is up and we’ll have our first female President which I will be happy for. Considering the age of both candidates, it’s also important we win the house as the Speaker of the House will become the VP. We don’t even know who the R VP (and possible future president) will be only that they will be a deplorable who formerly criticized their Orange Jesus and now worships him.

The speaker of the house will not become the VP. The new president will appoint a VP who will need to be approved by both houses of Congress.

So, she’d never actually have a VP? Good to know.

[neverfstop]

Reality check..... we all hate the polling, but they can be informative but not definitive. Nobody likes Nate Silver, but his polling is still among the most reliable.

www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/26/nate-silver-election-prediction-2024/74221921007/

Silver’s model, which ran 40,000 simulations, suggests that Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College, with an average margin of 287.2 electoral votes. Additionally, it predicts that Biden is slightly more likely (51%) to win the popular vote, but by a margin of just 47.2%-47.1%.

[elleblue]

Wait. People are still paying attention to Nate Silver? He was dead on in 2012 but hasn't been accurate since. I'm not sure I'd believe his polling.

[ellipses84]

Jun 28, 2024 17:49:24 GMT -5 mccallister84 said:

Jun 28, 2024 17:22:55 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

No matter how awful the R candidate is, the party backs them and R’s don’t panic when he’s convicted of 34 felonies, found liable of SA or lies throughout an entire debate. Biden doesn’t do as well as we wanted in one debate and the sky is falling for Dems. That panic narrative impacts the perception of undecided and potential non-voters, who probably did not watch the debate or even know it was happening until they see people complain about it on social media. I don’t think we can predict the outcome for any alternative at this point in the election cycle, as being any better or worse for votes in swing states than Biden.

I think there’s a lot of people who are Dem President or Never Trump no matter what what for 2024 (even former Republicans and 2016/2020 Trump voters) due to the Supreme Court, Roe V. Wade, Jan. 6 and felonies/ indictments. We have to engage more Dem/ undecided but likely Dem voters down ballot because when it comes down to it, they will check the box for Biden. I expect he’ll step down before 4 years is up and we’ll have our first female President which I will be happy for. Considering the age of both candidates, it’s also important we win the house as the Speaker of the House will become the VP. We don’t even know who the R VP (and possible future president) will be only that they will be a deplorable who formerly criticized their Orange Jesus and now worships him.

The speaker of the house will not become the VP. The new president will appoint a VP who will need to be approved by both houses of Congress.

Duh, you are right. They are just 3rd in the line of succession. It’s been a long time since high school US Gov’t class 😆

[ellipses84]

Jun 28, 2024 18:33:52 GMT -5 TR said:

Jun 28, 2024 17:43:01 GMT -5 litasail said:

The New York Times editorial board just called on him to step aside. I audibly gasped when I saw. Wow.

The NYT can go fuck themselves, honestly. Who gives a shit what they say.

Did they call for Trump to step aside when he was convicted of 34 felonies? I know a lot of people have been talking about NYT and CNN bias which was very apparent in the post debate havoc. I think most of the media companies want to wreak as much havoc as they can for ratings and they want a close race.

[basilosaurus]

Jun 28, 2024 12:53:01 GMT -5 karinothing said:

Transportation Pete has name recognition...just saying 😉

I think biden is staying though and I am fine with it. He has good people.

I think that, pathetically, we'll sooner see a woman as president than a married gay man with a child because "morals." Harris and Castro were my personal top picks back in the yesteryears.

I'm not sure it does dems any good to have these discussions getting leaked. It makes the party look incredibly weak even if these are valid conversations in private. It will just be weaponized as "even they don't trust or support their own." And you know how loyalty plays to his crowd and image.

I'm OK with Biden. Does he excite me? No. Is he my viable option to prevent a horrible human being from being an even worse dictator? Fuck yeah. Fear of drumpf is all the excitement I need. The real concern is whether that's enough to drive voter turnout.

A PP made a comment about Harris making way for the next generation. She's VP which is usually "next" and "only" about 60. How is she not next in that transition? She's genx, not boomer. She can presumably create a next gen from her class.

[underwaterrhymes]

Jun 28, 2024 20:31:22 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Wait. People are still paying attention to Nate Silver? He was dead on in 2012 but hasn't been accurate since. I'm not sure I'd believe his polling.

Nate Silver is a joke.

[polarbearfans]

I didn’t love how old Biden was last go around, but a vote for anyone other than him was a vote for Trump. I figured if he died Harris would be fine to take his place. I still feel the same. So far Biden hasn’t made me fearful anything too bad will happen. He took office at the height of a global pandemic. He has done fine. With Trump I lived in fear daily about what stupid dangerous thing he was going to do. It was constant stress and fear. Unfortunately voting for anyone else dilutes the vote too much to prevent Trump from taking office again. It should be criminal for him to even be allowed to run for office again. I do not understand the people who support Trump with such loyalty, especially those who still support him.

[morecoffeeplease]

In my red area I’ve seen less trump flags this cycle. Theres still a lot but definitely less.

However people who are not die hard Trump fans are now living even more paycheck to paycheck and they are all pissed about the rising costs of everything.

It doesn’t matter what the experts say, around here people feel like they can’t afford to feed their families anymore and that’s why I think Biden will lose.

To be clear, my family is voting for Biden. I just think the never Trump people around here just won’t vote. They are pissed and hate both of them. Trump because he’s Trump and Biden because they are stressed AF about money.

[fancynewbeesly]

Jun 29, 2024 8:25:35 GMT -5 morecoffeeplease said:

In my red area I’ve seen less trump flags this cycle. Theres still a lot but definitely less.

However people who are not die hard Trump fans are now living even more paycheck to paycheck and they are all pissed about the rising costs of everything.

It doesn’t matter what the experts say, around here people feel like they can’t afford to feed their families anymore and that’s why I think Biden will lose.

To be clear, my family is voting for Biden. I just think the never Trump people around here just won’t vote. They are pissed and hate both of them. Trump because he’s Trump and Biden because they are stressed AF about money.

This is what I see in my town. It is more of working middle class town--and people are hurting especially with food costs and taxes. Our schools budget got slashed and the town has to raise school tax-I think it is about 9% this year---it comes out to about 50-60 per month more on the assessed property. Even with that, teachers and programs are being cut. 

When I talk to people,  I feel the same reaction that they just won't vote because they hate both of the candidates. 

[sent]

Jun 29, 2024 8:25:35 GMT -5 morecoffeeplease said:

In my red area I’ve seen less trump flags this cycle. Theres still a lot but definitely less.

However people who are not die hard Trump fans are now living even more paycheck to paycheck and they are all pissed about the rising costs of everything.

It doesn’t matter what the experts say, around here people feel like they can’t afford to feed their families anymore and that’s why I think Biden will lose.

To be clear, my family is voting for Biden. I just think the never Trump people around here just won’t vote. They are pissed and hate both of them. Trump because he’s Trump and Biden because they are stressed AF about money.

I live in a blue state, but I'm seeing the same here. Cost of living was always expensive here to start with but now housing is wildly out of budget for regular blue collar people. Little tiny Cape Cod homes built in 1950 that regular people saved up to buy to escape being forever renters cost like $300K around the start of COVID. Now I see them go for $600K with bidding wars. It's insane. Food is expensive. It's like well if the 4 years since COVID got us here, what's there to lose going back to the previous guy since that's the only other choice.*** Pre-COVID, people here used to move to southern states to escape the cost of living but instead now they move further west/south within NJ or over to PA and only the occasional family trying to go back to Florida. I live and work in towns that are closer to 50/50 R/D rather than solid blue, but I am also seeing less MAGA signs around this time. I think people will just stay home and only the hardened among us on either side will vote. 

***I realize that in the long term there is a lot to lose but I think the average person struggling between food and rent on a weekly and monthly basis doesn't think that way.

[neverfstop]

You can hate on Nate Silver still, the Real Clear Politics site is showing the electoral collage (without tossup states)

Biden - 226
Trump - 312

I'm happy to look at any other pollsters and current numbers that don't scare the shit out of me at the moment...


WaPo www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/

Donald Trump is leading in 6 of the 7 battleground states that are most likely to determine the outcome of the election. The polls are particularly close in the first three battlegrounds below, meaning our average is within a normal-sized polling error of 3.5 points and either a Trump or President Biden victory is plausible. In the other four battlegrounds, the candidates’ polling leads are larger, but the race is still close.

[Michelle]

Jun 28, 2024 13:58:52 GMT -5 winnied said:

Jun 28, 2024 12:40:32 GMT -5 Michelle said:

I'd love to see Harris take the ticket and then have Gavin Newsome, Joaquin Castro, Corey Booker, and Pete Buttigieg vie for VP.

Newsome + Harris is probably too much California. But he can really go toe-to-toe with any liar Trump puts up as VP. I like Buttigieg next. I think for experience and diversity, Castro and Booker could be good picks. Booker + Kamala might not be the right combo either though.

I just know it was hard to watch last night. Biden needed to show his handlers weren't propping him up and he didn't prove that last night.

I think he's terribly smart. Just not the front man we need.

Definitely too much California. Joaquin Castro has too little name recognition and I'd think Julian has stronger experience to leverage. 

I actually meant Julian. I was just reading a quote by Joaquin and interchanged their names! Thanks for the correction!

[babsbunny]

Maybe we'll get lucky and TFG will pick a VP that does something stupid, like the Howard Dean overly enthusiastic "yeah" that tanked his campaign.

[basilosaurus]

Jun 29, 2024 18:43:47 GMT -5 babsbunny said:

Maybe we'll get lucky and TFG will pick a VP that does something stupid, like the Howard Dean overly enthusiastic "yeah" that tanked his campaign.

To their cult the worst person is their best person.

And Dean was a good person who was derailed for saying YEAH. To trump cult their best person is the one who says kill everyone. There is no good outcome

[rubytue]

I would like to report that after the initial shock and awe, I am feeling better about him continuing. Honestly, I’d be fine either way. But, it does feel quite as dire as it did Friday morning.

[msmerymac]

Jun 28, 2024 11:36:51 GMT -5 winnied said:

Are Beshear and Whitmer not strong options for Dems? Granted, I live in MI so clearly I have more name recognition with Whitmer but people look to MI, and it's a swing state.

Beshear is a strong option as a Dem in a red state. It's palatable to Dems and moderates in red and swing states.

The Bulwark Podcast (all moderate former Republicans who are never trumpers/no longer GOP) posited Whitmer and Josh Shapiro in whatever combo they decide. They might not have as much national name recognition, but they are 100% in Michigan and Pennsylvania where they both won in landslides in 2022.

[msmerymac]

Jun 28, 2024 13:16:35 GMT -5 karinothing said:

I don't know. Maybe folks are so fed up with these two that people would just vote for a new dem. I assume everyone that was "biden no matter what" would vote for the new person no matter what. Maybe anyone on the fence would just be happy to have anyone else.

I think there would also be a segment who would be pissed to go back to having a nominee essentially chosen through the party rather than primaries though.

[msmerymac]

Jun 28, 2024 20:31:22 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Wait. People are still paying attention to Nate Silver? He was dead on in 2012 but hasn't been accurate since. I'm not sure I'd believe his polling.

He gave Trump a 25-35% chance of winning in 2016 in the weeks leading up to the election, which was far more accurate than most, because his model accounted for states with similar demographics (like PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin) falling the same way.

Percentages are not gospel. Trump essentially had anywhere from a 1 in 4 to 1 in 3 chance of winning according to the model, which is… significant.

[curbsideprophet]

Jun 30, 2024 9:27:12 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Jun 28, 2024 13:16:35 GMT -5 karinothing said:

I don't know. Maybe folks are so fed up with these two that people would just vote for a new dem. I assume everyone that was "biden no matter what" would vote for the new person no matter what. Maybe anyone on the fence would just be happy to have anyone else.

I think there would also be a segment who would be pissed to go back to having a nominee essentially chosen through the party rather than primaries though.

Not like people really had a choice in the Dem primary. There was not a good 2nd choice. I think the people who are "biden no mattter what" are most likely "blue no matter who".  Do you really think there are people who are planning to vote for Biden but would not vote for Harris/someone else if Biden drops out? I honestly don't know. I think the number of people who voted uncommitted/no preference/etc was significant, especially in battle ground states. In some states that was 10% or higher of the Dem vote. Where are those votes going in the fall?

[neverfstop]

Jun 30, 2024 9:27:12 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Jun 28, 2024 13:16:35 GMT -5 karinothing said:

I don't know. Maybe folks are so fed up with these two that people would just vote for a new dem. I assume everyone that was "biden no matter what" would vote for the new person no matter what. Maybe anyone on the fence would just be happy to have anyone else.

I think there would also be a segment who would be pissed to go back to having a nominee essentially chosen through the party rather than primaries though.

ANd how the hell did Biden get chosen in this moment?  Nobody wanted him, poll after poll was telling the Democratic party they did NOT want ot vote for him.  Our primary system is so broken - I htink the general population would be elated to have somebody besides biden or trump to vote for. 

[sonrisa]

A magical, imaginary ‘other democrat’ or ’other candidate’ almost always looks great compared to a real human, with real history, real baggage and real weaknesses.

Name someone and the polling shifts.

Sitting presidents have an advantage. Especially after crisis. So if Harris had needed to step up a year ago, she’d get that glow.

But as it stands, no actual human is going to seem as shiny to the electorate as ‘someone else’ - because the ‘someone else’ each person imagines is different. And the only people for whom the specific someone else doesn’t matter are already ride or die democrat for whom changing the ticket won’t matter.