DT VP Pick Announced .... @@ page 4

[sent]

mrsukyankee, yup, that's a good take on it. You don't get to Yale Law School without being at least a little power hungry to be at the top of your game (I'm talking about her). I'm seeing some discussion that her next move will probably be to convert to Christianity to distance herself from her background and win favor with his base.

[stuffandthings]

I fully recognize that this could be the copium talking, butttttt...

I think Vance was strategically a bad pick for Trump.

In my opinion, there are two types of successful VP picks that help instead of hurt a presidential campaign:

1. A VP pick that extends an olive branch to other wings of your party, or maybe even to independents, OR
2. A VP pick that helps reinforce your chosen political "brand" with your base.

For example, Biden was a good pick for Obama because he shored up the moderate old white dude wing of the party. Tim Kaine (as much as he's a nice dude) was not a good pick because he didn't offer anything to the wing of the party that distrusted Clinton, and he didn't help improve Clinton's brand with the base. Pence was a good pick in 2016 because he shored up any doubts the evangelicals had about Trump's impiety.

Either you need someone who balances you out, or you need someone who motivates the base. Vance doesn't do either. JD's current positions are too Trumpy to bring in new voters, but not Trumpy enough that the cult members will trust him, ever. Because for Trumpists, loyalty is something that cannot have any breaks in it. Look at Christie. He hated Trump, then had to pretend that he liked him, and the Trump people never ever forgave him, never let him back in to the inner circle completely. In Trump World, any past "betrayal" of Trump never goes away. You can move away from it chronologically, but you can't ever get far enough away for it to disappear.

And JD Vance has said some VERY critical things about Trump. Everyone knows he's faking it till he makes it. Some Trumpers are okay with that, but some will never let it go.

So it's a gamble. At some point, because they aren't actually friends, Trump and Vance will accidently say two contradictory things. Then Trump will pounce and Vance will Find Out, just like every other establishment dude who has attempted to surf the MAGA tide. It'll be Pence all over again, just without the evangelical vote boost.

[neverfstop]

Jul 16, 2024 13:03:14 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

I fully recognize that this could be the copium talking, butttttt...

I think Vance was strategically a bad pick for Trump.

Eh- Trump is ahead in the polls & doesn't need a VP to help him strategically. Vance begged, groveled, and defended Trump.  Trump wants a puppet and an attack dog, things he got in Vance, plus a ton of tech-bro billionaire money.  Vance just blames the media about his prior statements on Trump - "the media fooled him & was lying!!!!!"  He's now see the truth and what an amazing guy Trump is & how wonderful of a POTUS he was.....  Trump likes being able to "forgive" Vance for the media's lies and Trump's followers like a redemption narrative where Vance has now "seen the light"  

If Trump wins, Vance will have pretty good odds to be the next face of the GOP. He's young, has trump's blessing (For now), and will be the future of the party.  Voters I don't think really care about VP- they were going to vote for Biden or Trump no matter who Trump picked as VP.  Why go with a safe choice?  Why not have somebody that is exciting and energizing?

I get that Vance is gross on so many levels, but Trump and his administration are going to enact Project 2025 no matter who he VP would be. It's not like Pence really kept trump from doing terrible things, except for Jan 6. 

[ellipses84]

Jul 15, 2024 18:14:11 GMT -5 intheden said:

As an Ohioan, I can confirm what a low life, cowardly, lying POS Vance is.

What’s the general feeling about him in the state? Do R’s like him or does it seem like people think he’s a total douchebag only interested in furthering his own interests and Rs vote for him anyway like Ted Cruz?

[stuffandthings]

Jul 16, 2024 19:14:12 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

Jul 16, 2024 13:03:14 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

I fully recognize that this could be the copium talking, butttttt...

I think Vance was strategically a bad pick for Trump.

Eh- Trump is ahead in the polls & doesn't need a VP to help him strategically. Vance begged, groveled, and defended Trump.  Trump wants a puppet and an attack dog, things he got in Vance, plus a ton of tech-bro billionaire money.  Vance just blames the media about his prior statements on Trump - "the media fooled him & was lying!!!!!"  He's now see the truth and what an amazing guy Trump is & how wonderful of a POTUS he was.....  Trump likes being able to "forgive" Vance for the media's lies and Trump's followers like a redemption narrative where Vance has now "seen the light"  

If Trump wins, Vance will have pretty good odds to be the next face of the GOP. He's young, has trump's blessing (For now), and will be the future of the party.  Voters I don't think really care about VP- they were going to vote for Biden or Trump no matter who Trump picked as VP.  Why go with a safe choice?  Why not have somebody that is exciting and energizing?

I get that Vance is gross on so many levels, but Trump and his administration are going to enact Project 2025 no matter who he VP would be. It's not like Pence really kept trump from doing terrible things, except for Jan 6. 

See, that first part is where I think he made a mistake. He’s “ahead in the polls” by like two percentage points and it’s still four months out, which is practically a lifetime in politics. There’s no way to know what polls will look like in early November. He should have taken the opportunity to shore up his position, and he didn’t because he’s an arrogant fool. Good thing for us that he is, I guess, but it’s still an unforced error.

[underwaterrhymes]

I don’t put much weight in polls. They predicted a Clinton win in 2016 and a 2020 Trump win.

Wrong both times, obviously.

[TR]

Jul 17, 2024 8:34:08 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I don’t put much weight in polls. They predicted a Clinton win in 2016 and a 2020 Trump win.

Wrong both times, obviously.

I’m so tired of the word “unprecedented” but it’s so true in politics these days. What worked before and previous norms just don’t seem to apply anymore. Which is both scary and reassuring, depending on what situation you’re looking at lol

[penguingrrl]

Jul 17, 2024 8:34:08 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I don’t put much weight in polls. They predicted a Clinton win in 2016 and a 2020 Trump win.

Wrong both times, obviously.

I find myself wondering if bad polls will be helpful in driving voter turnout. Voters who think their vote won’t matter anyway are more likely to see great polls for the candidate they’re leaning for as a reason their vote doesn’t matter anyway so why bother. Maybe the hubris of of course Hilary is going to win left them not bothering but fear of another 2016 will motivate them to bother.

[underwaterrhymes]

Jul 17, 2024 8:42:25 GMT -5 TR said:

Jul 17, 2024 8:34:08 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I don’t put much weight in polls. They predicted a Clinton win in 2016 and a 2020 Trump win.

Wrong both times, obviously.

I’m so tired of the word “unprecedented” but it’s so true in politics these days. What worked before and previous norms just don’t seem to apply anymore. Which is both scary and reassuring, depending on what situation you’re looking at lol

I wish we could just do away with the electoral college. It’s an outdated, unnecessary, biased mechanism that has no place in modern society.

[sent]

She he's not from Appalachia. I wrongly assumed he was based on him writing a book. This is the book that was made into a movie with Amy Adams? I remember getting bored and not finishing the movie which is unusual because I usually like stuff like this.

I've avoided going to Wikipedia to read about him and his wife because I'm tired of losing faith in humanity every single day.

[basilosaurus]

Jul 17, 2024 8:49:18 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Jul 17, 2024 8:42:25 GMT -5 TR said:

I’m so tired of the word “unprecedented” but it’s so true in politics these days. What worked before and previous norms just don’t seem to apply anymore. Which is both scary and reassuring, depending on what situation you’re looking at lol

I wish we could just do away with the electoral college. It’s an outdated, unnecessary, biased mechanism that has no place in modern society.

And good luck trying to exlain it to non-Americans. I'm asked about it regularly by everyone from friends to taxi drivers because of course the world is watching us. "So, 8 states get 16 senators with a combined population less than CA which gets 2..." and "the person that gets the most votes doesn't necessarily win"

[satsuma]

Jul 17, 2024 8:34:08 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I don’t put much weight in polls. They predicted a Clinton win in 2016 and a 2020 Trump win.

Wrong both times, obviously.

The polls predicted a 2020 Biden win, but were incorrect that it would result in a downstream gubernatorial/congressional victories for democrats. There was more split ticket voting than anticipated. I have no reason to distrust the accuracy of the current polling and yet a lot could still happen between now and November.

[somersault72]

Jul 16, 2024 7:02:39 GMT -5 shauni27 said:

Jul 15, 2024 16:20:21 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

He's terrible and horrible, but I don't think people will care. If they were going to vote for Trump, this doesn't change much.

Will it persuade any of the "undecideds"? Probably....they need a nice safe, clean, white guy they can feel comfortable voting for (i.e. pence). He's got the bombast and media presence to be Trump's attack dog & drum up a bunch of media attention. It's a positive for Trump and the GOP.

I'm not sure how the dems attack or undermine him because Trump/undecided voters don't really care about issues or substance or character or experience or qualifications. <lol sob>

this morning on NPR they interviewed Jonah Goldburg and when they asked if this was a good choice for a pick he just went "no." and then was quiet. He laughed and goes "I guess I should expand on that" and went on to say that this is not going to bring over any undecideds and it is not going to unite the party.

Jul 16, 2024 6:32:58 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

Elon Musk plans to commit about $45 million a month to a new pro-Trump super PAC formed by a group of close allies, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The group includes Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale and the Winklevoss twins.
The intrigue: A new strain of GOP financiers linked to Silicon Valley — beginning with J.D. Vance's 2022 Senate patron Peter Thiel, and now continuing with Musk and David Sacks — are poised to gain influence in the Republican Party, Axios' Zachary Basu notes.

i saw this earlier, so fucking insane.

This honestly makes me nauseous. $45 million a month??? And FTR I would be nauseous no matter which politician(s) he was giving $45 million a month to. There are so many people in this country, let alone the world that don't have basic needs and there's someone going around giving just an obscene amount of money to fund fucking political campaigns. I know they're not free but there is no political campaign that should cost anywhere near that much. I feel like my head is going to explode.

[somersault72]

Jul 16, 2024 20:21:10 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

Jul 15, 2024 18:14:11 GMT -5 intheden said:

As an Ohioan, I can confirm what a low life, cowardly, lying POS Vance is.

What’s the general feeling about him in the state? Do R’s like him or does it seem like people think he’s a total douchebag only interested in furthering his own interests and Rs vote for him anyway like Ted Cruz?

Weirdly I haven't heard much about him since he was elected or even now (possibly because they're still focusing on God saving Trump aka him being "the chosen one"). I say weirdly because I live in a very red county where many people never took their 2020 Trump/Let's Go Brandon flags down. Thankfully right on the border of a blue county.

[basilosaurus]

Jul 17, 2024 11:43:03 GMT -5 somersault72 said:

Jul 16, 2024 7:02:39 GMT -5 shauni27 said:

this morning on NPR they interviewed Jonah Goldburg and when they asked if this was a good choice for a pick he just went "no." and then was quiet. He laughed and goes "I guess I should expand on that" and went on to say that this is not going to bring over any undecideds and it is not going to unite the party.

i saw this earlier, so fucking insane.

This honestly makes me nauseous. $45 million a month??? And FTR I would be nauseous no matter which politician(s) he was giving $45 million a month to. There are so many people in this country, let alone the world that don't have basic needs and there's someone going around giving just an obscene amount of money to fund fucking political campaigns. I know they're not free but there is no political campaign that should cost anywhere near that much. I feel like my head is going to explode.

Add this to the list of weirdness I find myself having to explain. The amount of money and the insane years of leadup campaigning are pretty incomprehensible. Also, the super low voter turnout. People don't believe me.

Also, as always, fuck Musk.

[rubytue]

Jul 17, 2024 10:26:18 GMT -5 sent said:

She he's not from Appalachia. I wrongly assumed he was based on him writing a book. This is the book that was made into a movie with Amy Adams? I remember getting bored and not finishing the movie which is unusual because I usually like stuff like this.

I've avoided going to Wikipedia to read about him and his wife because I'm tired of losing faith in humanity every single day.

No. He is not. He is from western OH between Dayton and Cincinnati.  He grandparents lived in eastern Kentucky, and he spend some summers there. He has family roots in Appalachia. But to speak for Appalachia?! Let’s just say the people I know who were born and raised, and families going back generations are adamant he does not speak for them. 

my Appalachia fought the coal creek wars. Unionized the mines. Things like that. JD says unions are crap, but also acknowledges his grandpas job gave them a good life. And his entire take on food stamps is based on working one summer as a grocery store cashier and is basically no skittles for poor people. He pulls out the simplistic cliches, but doesn’t actually analyze things. And bootstraps. He was able to get ahead because he joking the marines and used the GI bill. But, you know, that was all his bootstraps and not getting any government help. 

have I mentioned how much I hate the book? Lol

and yes, it was made into a movie. 

[sent]

rubytue I'm not surprised at anything you wrote about him. Unfortunately he is young and probably not going away from politics in our lifetimes.

[wambam]

I live 18 miles from his hometown of Middletown, OH. His characterizations of that place are…WILD. Like, it’s definitely more economically disadvantaged than some of the surrounding towns but he describes it as this backwoods, backwards place and it’s so disingenuous. And decidedly not Appalachia.

[rubytue]

If y’all want to read someone take down JD harder than my hand waving, well researched and in actually somewhat related - search Tarra Vance Marked Melungeon on FB. Wow. She is a writer and from the Vance clan he took his name from. And she is PISSED.

[chchchia]

Jul 15, 2024 15:10:47 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

JD Vance, Vance Refrigeration

(If I don’t make jokes about anything political these days I’ll sob.)

That was my first thought too, an office quote will always bring me comfort with a side laugh.  My BIL called this about 2 months ago and I told him no way, I was wrong big time.  Good thing I didn't bet. 

[laladypoet]

MAGA social media is making horrible comments about his wife.

www.rawstory.com/jd-vance-wife-usha/?u=b0996b56d819606882af7b1ff010a2ecfa9aa6ccffdc12d6ac564ffca3768ffd

[mrsukyankee]

Jul 18, 2024 14:23:36 GMT -5 laladypoet said:

MAGA social media is making horrible comments about his wife.

www.rawstory.com/jd-vance-wife-usha/?u=b0996b56d819606882af7b1ff010a2ecfa9aa6ccffdc12d6ac564ffca3768ffd

Assholes being assholes.

[beetea]

Jul 16, 2024 12:09:13 GMT -5 wawa said:

I truly believe between the two of them (Trump and vance) there's not a single sincerely held belief to be found beyond "I deserve to hold as much power as possible and should do whatever it takes to get it"

Jamie Raskin was on MSNBC last night and made a quip about Vance not having a single conviction while Trump has 34. His smirk was priceless!

[livinitup]

5 days ago the Republicans were winning the election (all the winning) - Vance was a pick for a ticket that thought they didn’t need electoral math to win. They thought they had Biden beat. Hubris.

4 days later … Biden drops out

5 days later, they regret the Vance pick for VP.

It only took 5 days. Oh, regret.

[AAM2012]

Jul 22, 2024 19:25:46 GMT -5 livinitup said:

5 days ago the Republicans were winning the election (all the winning) - Vance was a pick for a ticket that thought they didn’t need electoral math to win. They thought they had Biden beat. Hubris.

4 days later … Biden drops out

5 days later, they regret the Vance pick for VP.

It only took 5 days. Oh, regret.

I’m really not surprised, if he had appropriate people on his team they would have been strategic, thought about what if’s, etc.

And to be clear this “what if” wasn’t something of a “never in a million years would I have guessed this would happen” type situation…” this was the most obvious what if that should have been considered.

Only the best people…

On the opposite, I think Biden waiting for the RNC convention and locking in Trump’s VP pick was 1,000,000% strategy, even if he didn’t tell insiders.

[cous0226]

here is my wild prediction on Vance.

Trump will drop him in the next month or so depending on how Kamala does in the polls. He obviously picked him because they told him it'll be a landslide so it doesn't matter.

He will of course say well Dems started over, why can't I? Maybe Nikki? The base wouldn't love it but don't know who else makes sense.

[TR]

Jul 23, 2024 8:13:35 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

here is my wild prediction on Vance.

Trump will drop him in the next month or so depending on how Kamala does in the polls. He obviously picked him because they told him it'll be a landslide so it doesn't matter.

He will of course say well Dems started over, why can't I? Maybe Nikki? The base wouldn't love it but don't know who else makes sense.

I wouldn’t be surprised by this at all. I even wonder if they’ll dig up (or fabricate) some kind of scandal to make it seem like Trump is “doing the right thing” by dropping him.

[magma]

Jul 23, 2024 8:22:21 GMT -5 TR said:

Jul 23, 2024 8:13:35 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

here is my wild prediction on Vance.

Trump will drop him in the next month or so depending on how Kamala does in the polls. He obviously picked him because they told him it'll be a landslide so it doesn't matter.

He will of course say well Dems started over, why can't I? Maybe Nikki? The base wouldn't love it but don't know who else makes sense.

I wouldn’t be surprised by this at all. I even wonder if they’ll dig up (or fabricate) some kind of scandal to make it seem like Trump is “doing the right thing” by dropping him.

Agree. This will happen. And he’ll do it by calling Vance into the boardroom and yelling “you’re fired!”

[mrsd2006]

Jul 23, 2024 8:22:21 GMT -5 TR said:

Jul 23, 2024 8:13:35 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

here is my wild prediction on Vance.

Trump will drop him in the next month or so depending on how Kamala does in the polls. He obviously picked him because they told him it'll be a landslide so it doesn't matter.

He will of course say well Dems started over, why can't I? Maybe Nikki? The base wouldn't love it but don't know who else makes sense.

I wouldn’t be surprised by this at all. I even wonder if they’ll dig up (or fabricate) some kind of scandal to make it seem like Trump is “doing the right thing” by dropping him., 

they'll never admit it was Trump's decision to dump him because that would mean Trump made a bad decision. 

Vance will be pressured to say he's stepping down on his own to "spend time with his family" or that "the people of OH need him more" 

[glw]

Jul 23, 2024 8:22:21 GMT -5 TR said:

Jul 23, 2024 8:13:35 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

here is my wild prediction on Vance.

Trump will drop him in the next month or so depending on how Kamala does in the polls. He obviously picked him because they told him it'll be a landslide so it doesn't matter.

He will of course say well Dems started over, why can't I? Maybe Nikki? The base wouldn't love it but don't know who else makes sense.

I wouldn’t be surprised by this at all. I even wonder if they’ll dig up (or fabricate) some kind of scandal to make it seem like Trump is “doing the right thing” by dropping him.

I think that sounds too much like admitting he made a bad decision and his ego would never allow that! 
I could see there being some failed test of loyalty that he could use to fire Vance (which is rich because Vance already compared him to "America's Hitler" so...)