Hurricane Milton

[litebright]

Category 5 in less than 48 hours? OMG.

The recovery crews are going to be exhausted. Speaking from the telecom side because that's the one I know-- they still have people trying to get sites back up and refueling generators over and over in GA and the Carolinas to keep sites up where there's no power, or using portable sites with satellite back-up for where the fiber has been damaged/destroyed.

FL recovery on the network side was relatively fast and straightforward from Helene, compared to the mountainous areas further north. But they're going to have to shift people and resources back to FL with little to no break once Milton passes. That's also going to be the case for the utility linemen, search and rescue, Red Cross and the other types of first responders, where you get aid from people who come in from across the country. The bench only goes so deep with some of those specialties, and back-to-back disasters will be grueling.

[Bad Dingo]

Oct 7, 2024 6:01:51 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

My mom and sister and her family live in the Tampa area. Neither plan to evacuate. They are far enough away from the bay that they aren’t worried about surge, but I reminded my mom if she doesn’t leave today, she won’t be able to later. I-4 is a hot mess on a good day and 75 isn’t much better, so evacuation is going to be a nightmare.

My dad lives a bit north of Tarpon Springs, inland, but the flood maps show significant flooding expected in his community. They are headed to Panama City today. I'm so worried for everyone in the path.

[underwaterrhymes]

Oct 7, 2024 11:38:19 GMT -5 Bad Dingo said:

Oct 7, 2024 6:01:51 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

My mom and sister and her family live in the Tampa area. Neither plan to evacuate. They are far enough away from the bay that they aren’t worried about surge, but I reminded my mom if she doesn’t leave today, she won’t be able to later. I-4 is a hot mess on a good day and 75 isn’t much better, so evacuation is going to be a nightmare.

My dad lives a bit north of Tarpon Springs, inland, but the flood maps show significant flooding expected in his community. They are headed to Panama City today. I'm so worried for everyone in the path.

Safe travels to him. 💙 I’m hoping my family decides to go, but I don’t think they will.

[cmeon]

tiki I hope your parents have evacuated (they are under an evacuation order now). If they haven't, please encourage (like with threats if you must) them to call the non-emergency line and explain that they need help getting to a shelter. There should be a special needs specific shelter in Pasco, that may be the most appropriate spot (depending on his equipment needs and mobility level). Mobile homes are just not a safe place to ride out any tropical storm, let alone a stronger hurricane.

[mofongo]

tiki - does your dad have any doctor they have a good relationship with? My dad passed from something similar to ALS, physically evacuating with him was just outside of our abilities. The doctor agreed to admit him for situations like this. I really feel for you. Please keep us updated.

This is so scary:( thinking of all in the path and for board members with family/friends in the path.

I remember being a kid, even HS and college and having tropical storms, those hardly exist anymore.

ETA: and FL is a nightmare to evacuate from. I get really tired of people not understanding that it’s not possible for every person. It takes money, resources, a job that let’s you go, and the physical ability to leave - FL is unique due to it’s size/shape and having two main highways.

[Velar Fricative]

Schools are being set up as evacuation shelters for people who can’t go too far. I hope those buildings are far enough from the water and can withstand the winds (no idea about building codes in FL but I have to believe since Andrew they’ve become more stringent).

[aprilsails]

Oct 7, 2024 11:28:07 GMT -5 litebright said:

Category 5 in less than 48 hours? OMG.

The recovery crews are going to be exhausted. Speaking from the telecom side because that's the one I know-- they still have people trying to get sites back up and refueling generators over and over in GA and the Carolinas to keep sites up where there's no power, or using portable sites with satellite back-up for where the fiber has been damaged/destroyed.

FL recovery on the network side was relatively fast and straightforward from Helene, compared to the mountainous areas further north. But they're going to have to shift people and resources back to FL with little to no break once Milton passes. That's also going to be the case for the utility linemen, search and rescue, Red Cross and the other types of first responders, where you get aid from people who come in from across the country. The bench only goes so deep with some of those specialties, and back-to-back disasters will be grueling.

My BIL has been in Georgia since two days after the hurricane (from Canada) as a linesman and he was supposed to be down there for three weeks. He's thinking he will be extended to four or five. He's never done disaster recovery at this scale before and he's finding the living arrangements and workload grueling. He also thinks he's lucky to have been sent to Georgia.

[tiki]

cmeon , Thank you! They're in Polk county so their closest special needs shelter is in central Lakeland. I've sent my mom the address and told her that it opens at 7am tomorrow. Unfortunately the special needs shelters don't allow dogs, so my mom would have to drop my dad off and shelter elsewhere with their 4lb dog. My dad is also celiac so he can't eat the shelter food, so I'm not sure what they'd do about food for him if my mom wasn't there to prepare separate meals.

mofongo , His doctors aren't great, but he was complaining about not feeling well last night and I did wonder if trying to get him admitted might be better than trying to evacuate with him...

[cmeon]

Oct 7, 2024 14:18:19 GMT -5 tiki said:

cmeon , Thank you! They're in Polk county so their closest special needs shelter is in central Lakeland. I've sent my mom the address and told her that it opens at 7am tomorrow. Unfortunately the special needs shelters don't allow dogs, so my mom would have to drop my dad off and shelter elsewhere with their 4lb dog. My dad is also celiac so he can't eat the shelter food, so I'm not sure what they'd do about food for him if my mom wasn't there to prepare separate meals.

mofongo , His doctors aren't great, but he was complaining about not feeling well last night and I did wonder if trying to get him admitted might be better than trying to evacuate with him...

Well, that's a little more inland (I forgot that Zephyrhills spans counties that way), so that's better- but I am still so worried for them (and all the other people in similarly difficult situations).  I hope that they are both safe through this, and that the experiences helps your mom see that she deserves help. <3

[Deleted]

MIL and SIL/BIL/niece/nephew live in Orlando. We want MIL to evacuate but she won’t leave her pets. MIL has a whole-home generator and hurricane shutters that nephew is supposed to go over and help install tomorrow (he’s 19), but as of this morning she had no other supplies (no water, batteries, etc). SIL/BIL both work in the electric power industry, so they can’t evacuate. It’s gonna be bad.

[AAM2012]

Ugh I just realized my dad (N. Fort Myers) is in zone A and under mandatory evacuations. He’s not leaving of course but he is up much higher than a lot of neighbors so I think he should be good from a flooding perspective but I worry about trees more than flooding.

[estrellita]

My aunt and uncle are in the Orlando area, right by Magic Kingdom. They're staying. My cousin was going to head down there but they told her not to because she'll likely have a hard time getting back out when she needs to. In the past they've been fine but this of course is worse. Just hoping they have enough supplies in case they lose power and/or are stuck for a while.

[AAM2012]

Oh and my dad has zero insurance on his home because it became too expensive… :-(

[ggirl]

Oct 7, 2024 16:30:43 GMT -5 @villainv said:

MIL and SIL/BIL/niece/nephew live in Orlando. We want MIL to evacuate but she won’t leave her pets. MIL has a whole-home generator and hurricane shutters that nephew is supposed to go over and help install tomorrow (he’s 19), but as of this morning she had no other supplies (no water, batteries, etc). SIL/BIL both work in the electric power industry, so they can’t evacuate. It’s gonna be bad.

I’m in st Pete area (not in an evac zone before anyone asks) and just went to Publix and they had water and we are going to get hit so she prob still has time to get stuff. The storm has slowed down and is now looking like a 2am Thursday landfall

[pixy0stix]

National Hurricane Center is clocking max sustained wind in Milton at 180 mph. It keeps gaining speed.

ETA: NHC also raised the storm surge for Tampa to 10-15 feet.

[Deleted]

Oct 7, 2024 16:55:42 GMT -5 ggirl said:

Oct 7, 2024 16:30:43 GMT -5 @villainv said:

MIL and SIL/BIL/niece/nephew live in Orlando. We want MIL to evacuate but she won’t leave her pets. MIL has a whole-home generator and hurricane shutters that nephew is supposed to go over and help install tomorrow (he’s 19), but as of this morning she had no other supplies (no water, batteries, etc). SIL/BIL both work in the electric power industry, so they can’t evacuate. It’s gonna be bad.

I’m in st Pete area (not in an evac zone before anyone asks) and just went to Publix and they had water and we are going to get hit so she prob still has time to get stuff. The storm has slowed down and is now looking like a 2am Thursday landfall

Apparently she managed to get some at Costco this morning! And a neighbor offered to help put up her shutters, so nephew doesn’t have to anymore.

[basilosaurus]

Oct 7, 2024 13:10:41 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Schools are being set up as evacuation shelters for people who can’t go too far. I hope those buildings are far enough from the water and can withstand the winds (no idea about building codes in FL but I have to believe since Andrew they’ve become more stringent).

Schools in FL, at least the area I'm from, don't have windows so that they could act as shelters. At least, that's how it was explained to me. At the time, our evacuation focus was getting far enough inland to escape storm surge. But, as we've seen with Helene, inland doesn't protect against catastrophic flooding. 

Especially after Andrew, building codes were much stricter banning things like barrel tile roofs and requiring hurricane straps. So, yes, your assumption is correct, although I'm not sure if it was localized or statewide. We all know that regulations are just socialism and trying to take away guns. 

[neverfstop]

Oct 7, 2024 22:46:33 GMT -5 basilosaurus said:

Oct 7, 2024 13:10:41 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Schools are being set up as evacuation shelters for people who can’t go too far. I hope those buildings are far enough from the water and can withstand the winds (no idea about building codes in FL but I have to believe since Andrew they’ve become more stringent).

Schools in FL, at least the area I'm from, don't have windows so that they could act as shelters. At least, that's how it was explained to me. At the time, our evacuation focus was getting far enough inland to escape storm surge. But, as we've seen with Helene, inland doesn't protect against catastrophic flooding. 

Especially after Andrew, building codes were much stricter banning things like barrel tile roofs and requiring hurricane straps. So, yes, your assumption is correct, although I'm not sure if it was localized or statewide. We all know that regulations are just socialism and trying to take away guns. 

this is what he's doing instead of helping with clean up from Helene & prepping for Milton


floridapolitics.com/archives/700182-department-of-health-sends-cease-and-desist-letter-to-tv-station-over-abortion-ad/

'Here, the Department is threatening the station with criminal prosecution if it does not cease running the Advertisement.'

[neverfstop]

Just 9% of FEMA's workforce is available to respond to new disasters, according to the agency's daily operations brief.

link.axios.com/click/36996894.20910/aHR0cHM6Ly9kaXNhc3RlcmNlbnRlci5jb20vRkVNQSUyMERhaWx5JTIwT3BlcmF0aW9uJTIwQnJpZWYucGRmP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zYW0mc3RyZWFtPXRvcA/5966577bcb149020448b4822B36039be2


ETA: more info


www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/climate/hurricane-milton-fema-staff-shortage.html

As of Monday morning, just 9 percent of FEMA’s personnel, or 1,217 people, were available to respond to the hurricane or other disasters, according to the agency’s daily operations briefing. To put that into context: Over the previous five years, one-quarter of the agency’s staff was available for deployment at this point in the hurricane season.
----------------

But FEMA is stretched not just by the brutal aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which killed more than 200 people and destroyed sections of western North Carolina. Its staff is also responding to flooding and landslides in Vermont, tornadoes in Kansas, the aftermath of Tropical Storm Debby in New York and Georgia and the Watch Fire in Arizona.



And those are just the disasters that were declared in the past two weeks.



“The agency is simultaneously supporting over 100 major disaster declarations,” Brock Long, who led FEMA during the Trump administration, said in a statement. “The scale of staffing required for these operations is immense.”

[aurora]

Oct 7, 2024 16:50:34 GMT -5 AAM2012 said:

Oh and my dad has zero insurance on his home because it became too expensive… :-(

A podcast* I listened to last week was talking about how common this is now; people can't afford insurance so they forgo it and just hope the federal government comes in after a disaster. (This only works if they didn't have a mortgage requiring insurance.)

*I think it was Not Built for This about climate change

[candreco]

My aunt in Haines City is unfortunately back in the hospital with a staph infection, but I'm a little relieved that she's somewhere with support. She's not in great shape or particuarly mobile, and I don't think would be able to evacuate on her own.

I'm worried about her home, it's a mobile home in a retirement community that she inherited from my grandparents so it's been there for 30ish years and I don't know how good she's been with maintenance and upkeep. I don't know what she'll do if she can't go back to it when she's released from the hospital.

[tiki]

My parents are in their car, headed to west palm beach. My mom finally accepted that she could ask hotel staff for help getting my dad out of the car again and into a wheelchair.

Edit: and she did get tons of help. A hotel manager took all their stuff directly to the room, another employee helped my mom, and a hotel guest assembled the hoyer lift in the parking lot. So grateful to all of these people for being there when it mattered. 

[anodyne]

Video of NOAA crew flying into Milton.

x.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1843706785401843941

[pixy0stix]

Looks like this morning they're expecting Milton to make land as a Cat 4.

[mala]

Stumbled across the flight tracking of the researchers who are flying into Milton. They're out there this morning (10/9/24 9AM EST). If you click the past flights you can see the flight they made yesterday where the video that has gone viral is from (posted above if you haven't watched it).

edit to include the link because I'm a dumbass www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

[lilac05]

tiki, I'm so glad to hear that your parents made it out! Sometimes these disasters bring out the worst in people, but many times, they bring out the best in them!

[ggirl]

It’ has picked up speed and likely won’t make landfall overnight which is good and back down to cat 3 at landfall.

[notreal]

Oct 9, 2024 10:16:57 GMT -5 ggirl said:

It’ has picked up speed and likely won’t make landfall overnight which is good and back down to cat 3 at landfall.

Yes and people are already complaining that officials and the media are over reacting. But in terms of public health and safety, if it's done correctly, the public should always feel like it's an overreaction because that means people stayed safe or healthy BECAUSE of the measures that were taken.

[ggirl]

Oct 9, 2024 12:43:38 GMT -5 notreal said:

Oct 9, 2024 10:16:57 GMT -5 ggirl said:

It’ has picked up speed and likely won’t make landfall overnight which is good and back down to cat 3 at landfall.

Yes and people are already complaining that officials and the media are over reacting. But in terms of public health and safety, if it's done correctly, the public should always feel like it's an overreaction because that means people stayed safe or healthy BECAUSE of the measures that were taken.

What’s crazy is that in the beginning it was always forecast to hit at 3 and local weather (I can’t speak for national I wasn’t watching that and the weather channel was pissing me off) kept mentioning it will likely weaken back down to a strong 3. Now obviously they didn’t like state it as a fact but we’re def mentioning it pretty regularly. And local kept stressing the dangers of the surge. Which are still there regardless if it’s a 2 or a 5.

[ggirl]

Oct 9, 2024 12:43:38 GMT -5 notreal said:

Oct 9, 2024 10:16:57 GMT -5 ggirl said:

It’ has picked up speed and likely won’t make landfall overnight which is good and back down to cat 3 at landfall.

Yes and people are already complaining that officials and the media are over reacting. But in terms of public health and safety, if it's done correctly, the public should always feel like it's an overreaction because that means people stayed safe or healthy BECAUSE of the measures that were taken.

I do think for my county (pinellas) since it’s so close to Helene that a lot of people left before evacs were even announced. I’m sure there will be people still complaining because people are the worst. But the damage from Helene is still too fresh right now for most.