TBM, is it possible you are experiencing Bell's Palsy symptoms?
I too am feeling increasingly anxious about numbers going up in New England.
It doesn't really match Bell's Palsy Symptoms.
It started on the way home from getting the vaccine, (20 minutes or so after we were cleared to leave) and it never got worse than just feeling like you're almost normal after being numbed at the dentist.
Nothing looks any different, there's no noticeable swelling or paralysis. I can even still make all the faces that I normally make in response to things. Don't judge...we are just very expressive people. lol
I wonder the areas that are seeing more increases are ones that are still opening. I can tell you for county that has now been fully open the hospitals and ICU have stabilized and cases are going down. Most places still require face coverings for the most part. I know there will be a spring break spike but so far it hasn't been that bad. Crossing my fingers the trend continues. Our county already has a good trend going for those who are vaccinated too so I am hoping that is contributing.
In the NE it is definitely that new variant. First cases started going up in NY, then NJ, followed by PA. It definitely correlated with the bb117 (I think) variant which is much more highly transmissible. I would expect it to then later hit places like MD, DE, etc. and cause spikes there too.
Very promising study from the CDC of just under 4,000 workers most at risk of getting infected at work (healthcare, police, etc.). Workers from multiple states were studied. These are amazing results. The vaccines were 80% effective after one dose and 90% after two.
Post by Velar Fricative on Mar 30, 2021 13:01:56 GMT -5
Random thoughts about the spikes we are seeing in some places:
1) I had a sense of deja vu when I looked at NYT charts and saw the top states with increasing cases are NY, NJ, MI and other northeastern states. I wonder if this will become a "seasonal" thing? Because I haven't heard much about rampant reinfections, but it seems like more than a coincidence that the same states that saw the initial surges last year are back in the same place at the same time. Not exactly the same obviously, but you know what I mean.
2) NY has I think about 30% of its population with at least one dose, obviously less who are fully vaccinated. I have to remind myself that that is still ~70% of the population of the state that is completely unvaccinated. The total number completely unprotected is less than that when you consider people now protected by recent infections, but still...that's still a very large population left for this virus to spread around, which is why removing mask mandates anywhere or allowing the reopening of certain high-risk activities is ridiculous.
TBM , is it possible you are experiencing Bell's Palsy symptoms?
I too am feeling increasingly anxious about numbers going up in New England.
It doesn't really match Bell's Palsy Symptoms.
It started on the way home from getting the vaccine, (20 minutes or so after we were cleared to leave) and it never got worse than just feeling like you're almost normal after being numbed at the dentist.
Nothing looks any different, there's no noticeable swelling or paralysis. I can even still make all the faces that I normally make in response to things. Don't judge...we are just very expressive people. lol
Two friends reported something similar and thought it was a reaction to cosmetic fillers in their face. Not asking if you have fillers, but I thought that was interesting.
It started on the way home from getting the vaccine, (20 minutes or so after we were cleared to leave) and it never got worse than just feeling like you're almost normal after being numbed at the dentist.
Nothing looks any different, there's no noticeable swelling or paralysis. I can even still make all the faces that I normally make in response to things. Don't judge...we are just very expressive people. lol
Two friends reported something similar and thought it was a reaction to cosmetic fillers in their face. Not asking if you have fillers, but I thought that was interesting.
No fillers or anything like that.
I was pretty sure that would have been the first thing that someone asked me, and at one point I wondered if that was what it felt like to have fillers or something done. That awareness, not the numbness.
I really don't understand people. Yesterday during a staff meeting, one of the people wanted help navigating things to get an appt. Someone asked if she had clicked the link sent out (5 times!) to employees. No, she had not. So she ended up looking like an idiot when she clicked the link and was easily able to get an appt. I honestly don't know how it could have been even easier for her. I just don't.
Learned helplessness. Fear of technology (like, what happens after I click X? If I don't know, I might not click X.).
I see this very thing a lot at my job (I'm the #3 tech person for our site). We do trainings, we record screencast videos w/ each step painfully detailed out, we send PDFs w/ screenshots of each step, we send emails with the steps numbered in order. And we STILL get people who don't even try--they just like to avoid, complain, and then have someone else do it for them. It's literally the most maddening part of my position.
It has been almost two weeks since I got my first dose (Pfizer) and had a reaction to it, and I am still experiencing some mild numbness around lip/chin area. I guess it must be getting better, since I can feel it more than before. It's more annoying now, and I can tell that it actually affected more than I thought though...pretty much the entire area a mask would cover if I was one of those people who wears their mask below their nose. I didn't think it was that wide of an area.
I have an appointment with an allergist on Thursday, to find out what I should do about a second dose. From what I could find on the CDC website, it looks like I should not get a second dose of Pfizer, (or Moderna) and they just say to consult an allergist to find out what you are supposed to do.
I guess I should spend some time today filling out the zillion new patient forms. Those things always give me anxiety....it feels like taking a test or something. lol
Yeah, it sounds like you have had an allergic reaction. You shouldn't get the second one, there's no way to know whether you would have an even worse reaction next time. (Same kind of advice who develop shellfish allergies and the like).
I wonder the areas that are seeing more increases are ones that are still opening. I can tell you for county that has now been fully open the hospitals and ICU have stabilized and cases are going down. Most places still require face coverings for the most part. I know there will be a spring break spike but so far it hasn't been that bad. Crossing my fingers the trend continues. Our county already has a good trend going for those who are vaccinated too so I am hoping that is contributing.
In the NE it is definitely that new variant. First cases started going up in NY, then NJ, followed by PA. It definitely correlated with the bb117 (I think) variant which is much more highly transmissible. I would expect it to then later hit places like MD, DE, etc. and cause spikes there too.
New variants in the NE is my thought too. My state recorded our first case of the Brazilian variant a few days ago.
In the NE it is definitely that new variant. First cases started going up in NY, then NJ, followed by PA. It definitely correlated with the bb117 (I think) variant which is much more highly transmissible. I would expect it to then later hit places like MD, DE, etc. and cause spikes there too.
New variants in the NE is my thought too. My state recorded our first case of the Brazilian variant a few days ago.
Yep, and NY/NJ/MA is almost always going to see spikes worse than elsewhere when that happens due to the population density.
Post by Velar Fricative on Mar 30, 2021 14:19:54 GMT -5
There is also a homegrown NYC variant that was discovered a few weeks ago. They actually were somehow able to pinpoint that it originated in the Washington Heights neighborhood. Last I read, the UK variant was most prevalent in Florida, which I don't think has seen the same case spikes. But, we're also not testing for the different kinds of variants more than, say, the UK has so who really knows.
Basically: things are opening back up, variants, people don't give two shits because we're a year into this.
I don't understand the one-off statement that contact tracing is nonexistent in NYC in the article. That is...not true based on both personal experiences and experiences from people I know who tested positive just this month. When DH was exposed at work a few weeks ago, he was still called daily by contact tracers despite being fully vaccinated. I would think if they were overwhelmed they'd call once and be like "Oh, you're fully vaccinated? Okay we don't need to call you anymore bye."
But overall, if I had to guess I would say it's the variants first and foremost, and it's created a recipe for disaster with reopenings. Because this looser behavior they're describing, which is all true, is happening everywhere else that isn't seeing the same spikes. Reopenings are basically happening in every state, or almost every state. I think back to one of my staff who tested positive a couple of weeks ago - every adult at a three-household indoor gathering had one vaccine dose and they all ended up testing positive for covid when one of them reported symptoms and a positive test the day after the gathering. That seems really really really contagious to me, maybe more contagious than what we've seen before where some people in a household with covid+ cases magically get spared (like in my own household), especially if the CDC study I previously posted that shows 80% efficacy after one dose holds up. FWIW, despite old age and some immunocompromised people, they all handled covid very well so it seems the vaccine did its job preventing severe symptoms, at least.
One interesting thing I've noticed is when you compare NYC and NJ. Sorry Rest-of-New-York, but there are a lot more regular ties between NYC and NJ versus Syracuse and NJ. Also, NYC and NJ are very close in terms of population so it's a better comparison too. But NJ hospitalizations are higher. I read this a few days ago but I can't remember if it was posted here.
1/3rd of Massachusetts has apparently received at least one dose yet our numbers are climbing. 40% increase in daily cases from 2 weeks ago.
I’m trying to stay positive but feeling a bit doom and gloom reading about the increases here in the northeast and reading Covid news around the world today. Ugh.
I wish there were more readily available case numbers broken down by vaccine status and/or age (almost the same thing in my state still). Likewise I'm really nervous about the increases. Are we seeing a really huge increase among unvaccinated people who are acting like the pandemic is over? Or are my vaccinated parents not as well protected as we thought? I'm not sure which scares me more. Although I feel like it's probably safe to assume that for those who can't get vaccinated yet, our danger from others who also can't get vaccinated yet is probably quite a lot higher than the numbers would suggest, since (probably?) nearly all those cases are concentrated among the unvaccinated.
@@ (not sure if this qualifies as @@ but thought to err on that side) There was just a local article about the increase we're seeing in Seattle. They said the zip codes with the fastest rise in cases are the university district and the neighborhood adjacent to the university district. Which would lead me to believe it has a lot to do with unvaccinated college students.
However looking at the county data (current through 3/9/21) it looks like the ages where we're seeing the most dramatic uptick are 0-19 yo and 30-39 yo.
But overall, if I had to guess I would say it's the variants first and foremost, and it's created a recipe for disaster with reopenings. Because this looser behavior they're describing, which is all true, is happening everywhere else that isn't seeing the same spikes. Reopenings are basically happening in every state, or almost every state. I think back to one of my staff who tested positive a couple of weeks ago - every adult at a three-household indoor gathering had one vaccine dose and they all ended up testing positive for covid when one of them reported symptoms and a positive test the day after the gathering. That seems really really really contagious to me, maybe more contagious than what we've seen before where some people in a household with covid+ cases magically get spared (like in my own household), especially if the CDC study I previously posted that shows 80% efficacy after one dose holds up. FWIW, despite old age and some immunocompromised people, they all handled covid very well so it seems the vaccine did its job preventing severe symptoms, at least.
Michigan’s increase in cases started almost exactly 3 weeks after restrictions were lifted, which made it look very much like easing restrictions was the main cause. But like you said, restrictions are being lifted all over, but not everywhere is seeing the same spike like we are. I think it’s very likely that it’s a combination of lifting restrictions and variants causing the spike we are seeing.
Anecdotally, over the past year, a friend’s company with ~75 employees has only had 2 known COVID cases, neither of which spread to anyone else at the company. Within the past 1.5 weeks, around 10 people have been diagnosed, at least some of whom likely got it at work. My friend says the company still has strict protocols for masking, social distancing, increased ventilation, etc. It definitely seems as though the strain more prevalent in the area now is much more contagious than what we dealt with in the past.
Michigan has had a 133% increase in cases over the last 14 days; I can’t believe we aren’t shutting things down again. ETA: Not necessarily a full lockdown, but at least reduce in person dining from the current 50%.
But overall, if I had to guess I would say it's the variants first and foremost, and it's created a recipe for disaster with reopenings. Because this looser behavior they're describing, which is all true, is happening everywhere else that isn't seeing the same spikes. Reopenings are basically happening in every state, or almost every state. I think back to one of my staff who tested positive a couple of weeks ago - every adult at a three-household indoor gathering had one vaccine dose and they all ended up testing positive for covid when one of them reported symptoms and a positive test the day after the gathering. That seems really really really contagious to me, maybe more contagious than what we've seen before where some people in a household with covid+ cases magically get spared (like in my own household), especially if the CDC study I previously posted that shows 80% efficacy after one dose holds up. FWIW, despite old age and some immunocompromised people, they all handled covid very well so it seems the vaccine did its job preventing severe symptoms, at least.
Michigan’s increase in cases started almost exactly 3 weeks after restrictions were lifted, which made it look very much like easing restrictions was the main cause. But like you said, restrictions are being lifted all over, but not everywhere is seeing the same spike like we are. I think it’s very likely that it’s a combination of lifting restrictions and variants causing the spike we are seeing.
Anecdotally, over the past year, a friend’s company with ~75 employees has only had 2 known COVID cases, neither of which spread to anyone else at the company. Within the past 1.5 weeks, around 10 people have been diagnosed, at least some of whom likely got it at work. My friend says the company still has strict protocols for masking, social distancing, increased ventilation, etc. It definitely seems as though the strain more prevalent in the area now is much more contagious than what we dealt with in the past.
Michigan has had a 133% increase in cases over the last 14 days; I can’t believe we aren’t shutting things down again.
MA lifted restrictions a couple weeks ago and surprise, surprise, cases are increasing. It is so stupid. @@ And MA elementary schools are going back to full day, in person starting Monday. Between the good vaccine news, restrictions lifting and school opening I think it sent the message that everything is back to normal. At least we still have a mask mandate.
@@ I've noticed a significant uptick in the number of cases at our school in the last 2 weeks. It's starting to scare me. Like 3 weeks ago I was feeling so good. It is crazy how fast things change.
Basically: things are opening back up, variants, people don't give two shits because we're a year into this.
I don't understand the one-off statement that contact tracing is nonexistent in NYC in the article. That is...not true based on both personal experiences and experiences from people I know who tested positive just this month. When DH was exposed at work a few weeks ago, he was still called daily by contact tracers despite being fully vaccinated. I would think if they were overwhelmed they'd call once and be like "Oh, you're fully vaccinated? Okay we don't need to call you anymore bye."
But overall, if I had to guess I would say it's the variants first and foremost, and it's created a recipe for disaster with reopenings. Because this looser behavior they're describing, which is all true, is happening everywhere else that isn't seeing the same spikes. Reopenings are basically happening in every state, or almost every state. I think back to one of my staff who tested positive a couple of weeks ago - every adult at a three-household indoor gathering had one vaccine dose and they all ended up testing positive for covid when one of them reported symptoms and a positive test the day after the gathering. That seems really really really contagious to me, maybe more contagious than what we've seen before where some people in a household with covid+ cases magically get spared (like in my own household), especially if the CDC study I previously posted that shows 80% efficacy after one dose holds up. FWIW, despite old age and some immunocompromised people, they all handled covid very well so it seems the vaccine did its job preventing severe symptoms, at least.
One interesting thing I've noticed is when you compare NYC and NJ. Sorry Rest-of-New-York, but there are a lot more regular ties between NYC and NJ versus Syracuse and NJ. Also, NYC and NJ are very close in terms of population so it's a better comparison too. But NJ hospitalizations are higher. I read this a few days ago but I can't remember if it was posted here.
I think it's a combo of the variants and the reopening. Yes, other places aren't seeing this, but they also do not have the newer variant (yet, I will give it time, it's bound to happen esp. with spring break).
I also didn't understand the lack of contact tracing - maybe they're just not as successful in reaching people? Who knows.
Post by downtoearth on Mar 30, 2021 15:27:24 GMT -5
I hate to admit it, but we are opening up more (governor lifted mask ban and allowed for more capacity in restaurants and public places), and our numbers are staying low. As in single digits of cases per day. I want Covid to be a pandemic of the past, but I also don't like that our Trump-loving, idiot GOP governor is getting the validation that his opening isn't really hurting our state. (I am so relieved that we are so low in numbers and so many people vaccinated, and know I shouldn't be vindictive like this, but I can't help it.)
ETA: And I get the first dose of vaccine this week. Signing up for vaccines is open now to start getting them for anyone 16+ April 1st.
[mention]velarfricative [/mention] I don’t think there’s any one answer. It could be a combo of variants, human behavior, seasonality, travel etc etc
I will say that we (CA) had our worst peak during our worst weather, when more behavior was driven indoors- this also coincided with indoor gatherings for the holidays and likely some travel to spend holidays with out of town people. And of course we had our own variants then too. Not a great mix.
I really don’t hear about anyone in my (local) circles gathering indoors - now that the weather is amazing, everyone is outside. I also don’t hear about spring break plans that cross state boundaries or are more than a couple hours drive. When I checked California’s social distancing metric (measured by cell phone data on the covid tracking project) we are doing quite a bit better than every other state I compared us against (-35% versus -10% to -25%) and that includes less dense states like IN and MI. I wonder how much of that is travel for people seeking warmer temps?
Our community rates are finally in a great place, though we aren’t out of the woods. Especially now that we’re seeing an uptick in tourism. I just wish people could chill for a couple more months on long distant vacations.
I’m in CT and our numbers are increasing. Our little town is higher even than those around us. Eligibility opens up on Thursday and I just really hope I can get a first shot soon. I’m noticing more people going without masks in the stores (even though there’s still a mandate) when honestly this whole time I’ve never seen anyone without one while I’ve been out.
Post by Velar Fricative on Mar 30, 2021 16:17:58 GMT -5
Also I know people are talking about northerners traveling south and bringing covid back home, but at least based on state numbers and what we do know about variants, it is probably more likely that states like FL will see a spike because those northerners brought the (more contagious) viruses from their home states to their vacation states. I assume the CDC and contact tracers are probably wading through lots of data as we speak.
Random thoughts about the spikes we are seeing in some places:
1) I had a sense of deja vu when I looked at NYT charts and saw the top states with increasing cases are NY, NJ, MI and other northeastern states. I wonder if this will become a "seasonal" thing? Because I haven't heard much about rampant reinfections, but it seems like more than a coincidence that the same states that saw the initial surges last year are back in the same place at the same time. Not exactly the same obviously, but you know what I mean.
2) NY has I think about 30% of its population with at least one dose, obviously less who are fully vaccinated. I have to remind myself that that is still ~70% of the population of the state that is completely unvaccinated. The total number completely unprotected is less than that when you consider people now protected by recent infections, but still...that's still a very large population left for this virus to spread around, which is why removing mask mandates anywhere or allowing the reopening of certain high-risk activities is ridiculous.
Even if you count recovered cases in the "protected" bucket we're only 40% to 50% partially immune. I do not think reinfection is driving the numbers here. There are tons of people with no immunity.
Folks are just so done and the governor is opening everything up. I feels very frustrating that we couldn't wait a month or two longer. Our cases were never great here in the city. We came only about halfway down from peak. I know more people personally who have gotten sick recently. The virus is out there when people are out getting more exposed.
[mention]velarfricative [/mention] I don’t think there’s any one answer. It could be a combo of variants, human behavior, seasonality, travel etc etc
I will say that we (CA) had our worst peak during our worst weather, when more behavior was driven indoors-
I think of our worst weather/stay indoors times as being late august/September when the outdoor air was unbreathable. I think holiday gatherings definitely played a role but the weather wasn’t nearly as bad as fire season. Group gatherings, especially shifting groups gathering, were a big problem.
I am hearing about a lot of traveling for next week. Most to Tahoe, but also some Hawaii and Mexico. I’m glad the school has a zoom week after every break.
I think we will spike again as variants keep spreading but I hope enough vaccines keep it lower than January.
Post by timorousbeastie on Mar 30, 2021 19:41:15 GMT -5
“BioNTech SE and Pfizer Inc. raised this year’s production target for their Covid-19 vaccine to as many as 2.5 billion doses, with the German biotech company’s chief predicting a version of the shot that can be stored in refrigerators will be ready within months.”