Republicans love Trump, if asked anonymously

[One Girl In All The World]

:?


www.vox.com/2015/12/21/10637998/donald-trump-poll-republicans

Study: Republicans are embarrassed to admit how much they like Donald Trump


Donald Trump has consistently led in polls of Republican primary voters since August, when he first took the lead. But present in those numbers is an interesting wrinkle: Trump consistently performed better in online surveys than in polls conducted live on the phone.

This difference confused many pollsters: Those surveys were all conducted separately, so it was possible to chalk up the differences to external factors like how questions were posed from survey to survey.

A new experiment from Morning Consult sought to put the question to rest. Pollsters interviewed 2,397 registered Republican voters and Republican-leaning independents about their favorite candidates in the primary. One-third of the respondents took the survey online. Another third answered the same questions posed by a live interviewer on the phone, while the final third heard the same questions in an automated phone call.

Overall, 36 percent of voters picked Trump as their favorite candidate after the last Republican debate. But his levels of support differed markedly among the modes of questioning.

Of the respondents answering questions online, 38 percent picked Trump for president, while only 32 percent of respondents named him when speaking to live pollsters. (Thirty-six percent chose him in automated telephone surveys.)

That pattern is unique to Trump. Ted Cruz did about 2 points better in live telephone surveys, as did Ben Carson. Jeb Bush saw no difference.

The gulf grew even starker among voters with college degrees: College graduates favored Trump in online surveys over live telephone by about 10 percentage points.

What’s going on here?

The most likely explanation for this chasm in levels of support is a concept in social psychology known as "social desirability bias."

"Social desirability bias Is this tendency for survey respondents to provide answers that lead interviewers to hold a more favorable view of them," said Kyle Drott, a co-founder at Morning Consult and the study’s main author.

This tendency to lie to pollsters is present all over the place. People, for example, severely underreport their involvement in taboo activities such as using illegal drugs or masturbating. And the phenomenon works in the opposite direction: People are more likely to tell callers they have donated to charity, for example, than they actually are to donate.

In politics, the idea of social desirability bias first gained notoriety in the early '80s, when longtime Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, one of the most prominent black politicians in the country, ran as a Democrat in the California governor’s race. Though polls projected his victory by a significant margin, he lost narrowly to the Republican candidate, a white man.

Several years later, Douglas Wilder successfully ran for governor in Virginia, becoming the first black governor to hold office since Reconstruction.

Wilder won his 1989 race by a half-point margin, but opinion polling in the months leading up to the election consistently showed him leading his white opponent by as many as 9 percentage points.

After the fact, political scientists discovered that in both races many white voters told pollsters they planned to vote for the nonwhite candidate but ended up voting against him. This became known as the "Bradley effect" (or sometimes "Wilder effect"): Voters voiced false support for the nonwhite candidate to avoid opening themselves up to criticisms that they were racist.

Political scientists believe the Wilder/Bradley effect has since dissipated, especially with the election of Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

"The Wilder effect declined to insignificance swiftly at about the time that welfare reform silenced one critical, racialized issue, and as crime’s national salience was declining," wrote Daniel Hopkins, a Harvard professor who found the effect disappeared at some point in the mid-1990s. If race once more becomes a salient political issue, the authors warned, the Bradley/Wilder effect could reappear.

Even in this Morning Consult poll, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, the only black candidate in the Republican primary, does slightly better in live polls than in automated surveys. Drott said he suspected social desirability bias might be at play, but the 2 percentage point difference is within the poll’s margin of error.

In the case of Trump, though, social desirability bias appears alive and well. It seems even Trump’s supporters understand that favoring him is not entirely socially acceptable. But that doesn’t diminish their backing — that Trump is loathed by political elites is part of his appeal.

What the survey ultimately indicates is that Trump’s support might, if anything, be slightly underrepresented in the polls we see make headlines.

Commentators set Trump’s hard ceiling of support at around his highest poll numbers, but if political correctness is holding back additional voters from publicly voicing their support, the ceiling could realistically be higher. When voters cast their ballots, political correctness won’t be on their minds.

[josieposy]

They should have polled Facebook.

[kme]

Maybe this explains it. I still have not meet 1 republican that likes/will vote for him.

[Deleted]

That is concerning considering that the vote itself is anonymous. 

[penguingrrl]

I'm not surprised. A neighbor of mine hedged with "oh, Inwoukdn't vote for him of course, but it's refreshing to see someone stepping up against the overly-PC people." I'm sure she would lie on a phone survey but vote for him.

[sporky]

Dec 22, 2015 8:06:01 GMT -5 kme said:

Maybe this explains it. I still have not meet 1 republican that likes/will vote for him.

You're lucky. Unfortunately, I'm related to some. 

[Velar Fricative]

I believe this 100%. The official polling numbers may show Trump with little overall support but when it comes down to the vote itself, I think we'll see him garner more support than expected.

[Mrs.Rad888]

I post way too much anti-Trump stuff on my Facebook, I don't know that anyone would tell me that they're in favor of him. I know I need to stop posting so much political stuff, but people need to know!

[One Girl In All The World]

Dec 22, 2015 9:02:52 GMT -5 tillie said:

Or they may not like him but if he ends up with the nom will have no choice but to vote for him.

^o)  Right, but this is about favorites in the primary.

[NewOrleans]

Dec 22, 2015 9:02:52 GMT -5 tillie said:

Or they may not like him but if he ends up with the nom will have no choice but to vote for him.

There are several choices: stay home to send a message, vote 3rd party, write in a vote. Voting 3rd party has many important implications.  One of them is garnering enough votes to get federal campaign money.  It could make a dent in the whole system, tillie.  Please don't feign helplessness and say they made you do it.  That is not true, and it is unworthy.

[carowen]

I'm still a million times more frightened of the potential for a President Cruz.

[summer]

Dec 22, 2015 9:02:52 GMT -5 tillie said:

Or they may not like him but if he ends up with the nom will have no choice but to vote for him.

I can't. I understand being bound to a party but no. I'd, hand to God, vote for a chicken or a goat before I put that man in charge and let him run around amongst other world leaders representing me. To vote for Trump my other choice would have to be Stalin.

[jillboston]

Dec 22, 2015 9:02:52 GMT -5 tillie said:

Or they may not like him but if he ends up with the nom will have no choice but to vote for him.

If the Democratic party were to nominate someone with views like Trump (think George Wallace in 1968 - I know he ran 3rd party but was certainly born and raised a Southern Democrat) I would vote Republican. You would really vote for a demagogue over *any* Democratic candidate?

[oscarnerdjulief]

Dec 22, 2015 9:12:17 GMT -5 Mrs.Rad888 said:

I post way too much anti-Trump stuff on my Facebook, I don't know that anyone would tell me that they're in favor of him. I know I need to stop posting so much political stuff, but people need to know!

What I am saying relates not to Trump, but to conservative/Republican beliefs in general.

People are very likely not to post conservative political beliefs on FB because they will be attacked and jumped with such venom if they do.  There is a DEFINITE chilling effect. 

[bina]

That people actually consider voting for Trump is disgusting to me, Trump would literally make America a joke. He would destroy our foreign relations. Like anybody would be better than Trump. I really cant stand Hilary but I'll absolutely vote for her over Trump.

[mrsukyankee]

Dec 22, 2015 10:19:05 GMT -5 bina said:

That people actually consider voting for Trump is disgusting to me, Trump would literally make America a joke. He would destroy our foreign relations. Like anybody would be better than Trump. I really cant stand Hilary but I'll absolutely vote for her over Trump.

As someone living overseas, yes, having him in power would truly destroy the US in the eyes of Europe and much of the world.  When Putin is the only person who is happy to have him on board...

[bina]

Dec 22, 2015 10:24:16 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

Dec 22, 2015 10:19:05 GMT -5 bina said:

That people actually consider voting for Trump is disgusting to me, Trump would literally make America a joke. He would destroy our foreign relations. Like anybody would be better than Trump. I really cant stand Hilary but I'll absolutely vote for her over Trump.

As someone living overseas, yes, having him in power would truly destroy the US in the eyes of Europe and much of the world.  When Putin is the only person who is happy to have him on board...

I worry that a lot of Americans no longer recognize how important foreign policy and relations are. They never leave the country or plan on doing so, so they are like whatever, I'm comfortable, who cares?

[notreal]

People who vote for a horrifying candidate because that is what your party nominated and you would rather die than vote for the other party are the reason the two party system has fucked this country up.

[summer]

Dec 22, 2015 10:19:05 GMT -5 bina said:

That people actually consider voting for Trump is disgusting to me, Trump would literally make America a joke. He would destroy our foreign relations. Like anybody would be better than Trump. I really cant stand Hilary but I'll absolutely vote for her over Trump.

An actual, literal joke. No one would take us seriously for years. And they shouldn't. He possesses not one trait that would make him an acceptable choice to represent us on a world stage or someone who should be in charge of a military. 

[summer]

Dec 22, 2015 10:24:16 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

Dec 22, 2015 10:19:05 GMT -5 bina said:

That people actually consider voting for Trump is disgusting to me, Trump would literally make America a joke. He would destroy our foreign relations. Like anybody would be better than Trump. I really cant stand Hilary but I'll absolutely vote for her over Trump.

As someone living overseas, yes, having him in power would truly destroy the US in the eyes of Europe and much of the world.  When Putin is the only person who is happy to have him on board...

They talk about Trump everyday on the news and every time the reporters act like they simply can't believe this is a thing. It looks supremely fucked up from this side of the Atlantic. It is embarrassing. 

[mx27]

Dec 22, 2015 8:16:21 GMT -5 incogneato said:

Oh good lord. America get your head out of your ass.

You mean, republican Americans who voted in this poll...don't lump me in with those folks!

[wambam]

Voting third party will continue to be a "throw away" unless people VOTE THIRD PARTY.

I did it in 2012. I likely won't in 2016, but the option will only be an option if people continue to choose it.

[tacosforlife]

If you legit think that Trump would be better for America than Hillary, especially when it comes to dealing with other governments around the world, then you need Jesus.

I am not a fan of any of the Republican candidates, but the if the Democrats nominated a Trump equivalent and the Republican opponent were Rubio, I'd hold my nose and vote Rubio. FOR FUCK'S SAKE. We are talking about the future of the republic here, not political preferences.

[summer]

I mean look at him. 

There is a link. Not a comment on his hair or some nonsense.

[One Girl In All The World]

Dec 22, 2015 10:54:58 GMT -5 summer said:

I mean look at him. 

There is a link. Not a comment on his hair or some nonsense.

JFC this man is seriously terrifying. Every one who votes for this man is part of the problem in this country. 

[josieposy]

I will drive folks to the polls myself if he gets the nom.

[scout8]

Dec 22, 2015 9:54:44 GMT -5 tillie said:

I would rather vote for a goat than Hilary or Bernie.

Voting 3rd party is basically throwing my vote away. Trump is NOT any where near my ideal candidate. None of them are. I hope it doesn't come to voting for him, but I'll do if last resort.

Seriously??!! If Trump is your Republican option, you would really vote for him?  Someone who is outright racist? If the Dems nominated a bigot, I would vote Republican before I would vote for the bigot. This bothers me so much. I'm sorry Tillie, I really don't ever attack anyone on here, but this is so upsetting to me.  

[jojoandleo]

Dec 22, 2015 9:54:44 GMT -5 tillie said:

I would rather vote for a goat than Hilary or Bernie.

Voting 3rd party is basically throwing my vote away. Trump is NOT any where near my ideal candidate. None of them are. I hope it doesn't come to voting for him, but I'll do if last resort.

This is the most disheartening thing I have ever read on GBCN.

[ESF]

I can't even.

Here, have another example of the fact that he is unhinged.

www.politico.com/story/2015/12/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-debates-bathroom-217052

[fuckyourcouch]

Jfc.
/hops in spaceship, blasts away from your bullshit