I think itâs going to be awhile. I have so little confidence in the US federal response. My stepmother couldnât get a test a month ago and my cousinâs husband couldnât get one even yesterday. Iâd feel better with more testing, tracing, antibody checks, and of course, an actual vaccine. I feel like Iâm going to have a hard time going from âstay in your house... if you have to go out, wear one of these homemade masks that donât actually do muchâ to âgo on, itâs ok, get out thereâ on some arbitrary magical day. I think âreopeningâ will definitely have to be a series of steps and the landscape will be different because by then lots of places will not still be in business. One of my kidâs teachers said she hopes to see students at school in May, and I think thereâs no way thatâs happening.
I live near a state park and a couple weeks ago a guy had a mountain bike accident and required paramedics and an ambulance to take him to the hospital. He was in a hard to reach place. He was fined 1k for nonessential travel on top of all the other associated bills.
But is it sustainable to close a school for 2-5 days any time there is a covid case at a school, staff or child? Could you imagine? It would be easier for working folks to figure out the logistics of a yearâs worth of distance learning than to continually arrange childcare for covid closures, especially if grandma/grandpa canât be used in that kind of a situation without putting them at risk. I could see smaller groups of families linking up to each take one day of âschoolâ and facilitating kids to help try to have greater work productivity on the days they donât have the group of kids. I know this doesnât abide by the SIP, but by fall I do expect that we will be able to get together in slightly larger bubbles of germs, especially if you can account for those people and their social distancing measures they otherwise go to.
Obviously it is just a theory on my part, but based on our state superintendentâs speech when they announced closing on-site schooling for the remainder of the year, I donât think itâs completely out of the question. Unless the US suddenly changes tactics and we approach this more like Sweden I donât see how we put all those little vectors back into a building together by mid-August. I have high hopes for antibody tests changing up how we return to ânormalâ and reopen, but at the same time I just donât see an âendâ in sight until thereâs a vaccine. Even if we do waves of SIP based on virus resurgence that would put us all into a scramble whenever it happens, much like this time. It seems that adapting to a ânew normalâ until thereâs a vaccine would provide the most continuity across most systems rather than resuming âold normalâ too soon and then having to accommodate frequent interruptions based on the virus.
All in all, I donât know. There are a lot of what-ifs and we have total shit leadership from the president and no clear plan on how things reopen. Perhaps there is no clear plan because the reality is there isnât one other than âfind a vaccine, hunker down and do your best until thenâ.
Iâm really hoping Airbnb extends their cancellation policy through 6/30. We will almost definitely cancel our September cruise as well.
Y E S
I have a June trip I need to cancel but need to so it before April 20th or else we risk losing $2000 vs just $1000...
I donât think they will give me back the $1k even if they cover our date eventually, but I will fight for it.
We have until the end of May to get a 50% refund. I really hope they allow 100% cancellations soon though. Itâs in a golf community at the beach and I just canât picture the community pools being open this year. I think weâre better off cancelling.
Please do the right thing Airbnb!!
ETA: honestly if they donât slow me to cancel in full I will never use Airbnb again.
Do you think people will continue to SIP like they have been into summer/the rest of the year if this continues?
The only things I have done in the past month are two Costco trips, and walks around the neighborhood. Iâm very much a rule follower by nature, but even I canât imagine doing this until December! Even end of June feels tough.
Nope. People are already getting restless. Compliance is going down by the day here (Houston area).
Post by ilikedonuts on Apr 14, 2020 7:03:46 GMT -5
People will revolt if they try and keep schools closed another year. People need to work to survive at home point. They canât stay home and distance/homeschool their kids for 18 months especially as they start opening businesses back up.
My office holds hearings with members of the public. We were told last week to plan on telephone hearings through at least the end of May. And we might be able to reopen things sooner than your average business because we can better control who comes in.
My daughter is supposed to start K3 in mid-August, and at this point, Iâm just hoping that sheâll get to start on time.
But is it sustainable to close a school for 2-5 days any time there is a covid case at a school, staff or child? Could you imagine? It would be easier for working folks to figure out the logistics of a yearâs worth of distance learning than to continually arrange childcare for covid closures, especially if grandma/grandpa canât be used in that kind of a situation without putting them at risk. I could see smaller groups of families linking up to each take one day of âschoolâ and facilitating kids to help try to have greater work productivity on the days they donât have the group of kids. I know this doesnât abide by the SIP, but by fall I do expect that we will be able to get together in slightly larger bubbles of germs, especially if you can account for those people and their social distancing measures they otherwise go to.
Obviously it is just a theory on my part, but based on our state superintendentâs speech when they announced closing on-site schooling for the remainder of the year, I donât think itâs completely out of the question. Unless the US suddenly changes tactics and we approach this more like Sweden I donât see how we put all those little vectors back into a building together by mid-August. I have high hopes for antibody tests changing up how we return to ânormalâ and reopen, but at the same time I just donât see an âendâ in sight until thereâs a vaccine. Even if we do waves of SIP based on virus resurgence that would put us all into a scramble whenever it happens, much like this time. It seems that adapting to a ânew normalâ until thereâs a vaccine would provide the most continuity across most systems rather than resuming âold normalâ too soon and then having to accommodate frequent interruptions based on the virus.
All in all, I donât know. There are a lot of what-ifs and we have total shit leadership from the president and no clear plan on how things reopen. Perhaps there is no clear plan because the reality is there isnât one other than âfind a vaccine, hunker down and do your best until thenâ.
I think it would be unwise but exactly what we would do in the US. I donât see another way. How will anyone keep their job? We will very likely reopen schools in the fall and have individual buildings close for x days for an outbreak. I say this based on the fact that we arenât trying to not have any cases, just slow them down enough to let hospitals keep up.
I think end of June for SIP, at least here in Canada, with closures whenever there is a breakout in the area. We arent trying to get 0 cases, just make sure the healthcare system isnt overburdened with the sheer volume of cases at one time. It isn't sustainable to most families or even the economy for schools to stay closed and continue with distance learning until a vaccine is determined, which could take a minimum of 12-18 months but really who knows how long.
I think large gatherings (concerts, sports etc) may not happen until a vaccine.
Logically I know through June, at least, we'll be SIP and limiting contact. I was, optimistically, hoping that by July things MIGHT be starting to even out and things like 10 person maximums might be lifted a little. Don't see things like sports or concert type things starting back up until next year. I do think school will start back up September but with a lot of precautions in place.
We have a flight and FL beach trip scheduled for end of July into August and I am thinking more and more that we'll cancel. Which will be our third vacation cancelled this year.
I also don't think this will really end until there is a vaccine. Our country is too disorganized. We still aren't even testing adequately, let alone doing real contact tracing and containing this thing. I could see things easing in the fall in that they make more suggestions for childcare, like babysitters/nannies or families teaming up. I just can't see how sending millions of kids across the country, crammed into buildings with hundreds or thousands of other kids, is going to happen or end well. I really hope I'm wrong and they'll figure out some safe solution, but I just don't see it.
But is it sustainable to close a school for 2-5 days any time there is a covid case at a school, staff or child? Could you imagine? It would be easier for working folks to figure out the logistics of a yearâs worth of distance learning than to continually arrange childcare for covid closures, especially if grandma/grandpa canât be used in that kind of a situation without putting them at risk. I could see smaller groups of families linking up to each take one day of âschoolâ and facilitating kids to help try to have greater work productivity on the days they donât have the group of kids. I know this doesnât abide by the SIP, but by fall I do expect that we will be able to get together in slightly larger bubbles of germs, especially if you can account for those people and their social distancing measures they otherwise go to.
Obviously it is just a theory on my part, but based on our state superintendentâs speech when they announced closing on-site schooling for the remainder of the year, I donât think itâs completely out of the question. Unless the US suddenly changes tactics and we approach this more like Sweden I donât see how we put all those little vectors back into a building together by mid-August. I have high hopes for antibody tests changing up how we return to ânormalâ and reopen, but at the same time I just donât see an âendâ in sight until thereâs a vaccine. Even if we do waves of SIP based on virus resurgence that would put us all into a scramble whenever it happens, much like this time. It seems that adapting to a ânew normalâ until thereâs a vaccine would provide the most continuity across most systems rather than resuming âold normalâ too soon and then having to accommodate frequent interruptions based on the virus.
All in all, I donât know. There are a lot of what-ifs and we have total shit leadership from the president and no clear plan on how things reopen. Perhaps there is no clear plan because the reality is there isnât one other than âfind a vaccine, hunker down and do your best until thenâ.
We were having rolling school strikes here in Ontario right before COVID happened and schools were closing once a week, weekly, and I believe had moved 2 closures a week. It was hard for parents to figure out childcare as they were only told which day the week before but parents were managing, I think better than they currently are.
I have a June trip I need to cancel but need to so it before April 20th or else we risk losing $2000 vs just $1000...
I donât think they will give me back the $1k even if they cover our date eventually, but I will fight for it.
We have until the end of May to get a 50% refund. I really hope they allow 100% cancellations soon though. Itâs in a golf community at the beach and I just canât picture the community pools being open this year. I think weâre better off cancelling.
Please do the right thing Airbnb!!
ETA: honestly if they donât slow me to cancel in full I will never use Airbnb again.
Have you checked recently? We just canceled our May travel yesterday and got all of the money back in a travel credit (not ideal but better than nothing). I swear every time I looked into canceling it had changed, this was the first time I could easily request full cancelation, and I don't recall seeing a date attached to it.
Do you think people will continue to SIP like they have been into summer/the rest of the year if this continues?
The only things I have done in the past month are two Costco trips, and walks around the neighborhood. Iâm very much a rule follower by nature, but even I canât imagine doing this until December! Even end of June feels tough.
No and I don't think that it is sustainable at this level, but I do think that some form of social distancing will continue for a while.
In my opinion the federal response will be what keeps us home longer. We will end up relying on states to better ramp up testing both for the virus and antibodies. If a lot of us actually have had the virus more of us should be able to resume more of our daily activities.
I think things will begin to open, but they will look vastly different than they did two months ago. Do schools do a split schedule so there aren't so many kids in the building at once? Movies could do straight to streaming, but they resume filming. Sporting events start out being played in an empty stadium and gradually work the way up to 1/3 or 1/2 capacity. Parks could probably be opened up at a limited level. All these things wouldn't eliminate the spread, but would greatly reduce it.
I am just hoping for reopening of school in mid-August. I would be surprised if the 20-21 year was all online. I would assume it will be a disrupted year with some time off/distance learning in place in the fall/winter depending on localized outbreaks.
I really donât know what to expect otherwise. I would think loosening restrictions could start very gradually in July. Business would slowly reopen, but I think large public events are done until thereâs a vaccine. We have made zero plans for the summer, and I donât expect to have any.
This largely depends on testing capacity, antibody tests, contract tracing abilities, etc. Since things at the federal level are so inept, I have little faith we can put that into place on a large scale. Some states will probably fare better than others.
We have until the end of May to get a 50% refund. I really hope they allow 100% cancellations soon though. Itâs in a golf community at the beach and I just canât picture the community pools being open this year. I think weâre better off cancelling.
Please do the right thing Airbnb!!
ETA: honestly if they donât slow me to cancel in full I will never use Airbnb again.
Have you checked recently? We just canceled our May travel yesterday and got all of the money back in a travel credit (not ideal but better than nothing). I swear every time I looked into canceling it had changed, this was the first time I could easily request full cancelation, and I don't recall seeing a date attached to it.
Yeah theyâre currently allowing cancellation for trips starting before 5/31. Ours is the last week of June.
Post by maudefindlay on Apr 14, 2020 8:11:24 GMT -5
The amount of regression in students will be bad enough come fall. They have to have schools open for as much of the school year as able.
I also do not see teachers working to remedy distance learning this summer. Teachers are burned out big time and are working harder than usual right now, plus so many of the issues are things that either have to be changed by higher ups or they are issues with students/families not able or just not doing the work and not able or just not responding to staff.
Post by usuallylurking on Apr 14, 2020 8:11:24 GMT -5
I understand it is an unpopular opinion. And if Iâm wrong then I can be pleasantly surprised instead, lol.
But for the âhow would people do it?â aspect, look at how people are currently doing it. Thatâs how. It sucks, but itâs happening. Did anybody two months ago foresee as much working from home as is currently happening? No way. But if businesses canât resume ânormalâ due to school closures and looser than SIP but still social distancing then their employees can continue to WFH. Especially if there is a widespread resumption of childcare for the sub-Kinder crowd and parents arenât juggling that childcare with WFH. Allowing those children to commingle amongst âdaycare germsâ will allow for us to begin to work towards herd immunity and not threaten the curve, while families still stay within their bubbles.
People will revolt? Ok. But and do what? Drop their kids off at a closed school and drive away? Not pay their taxes? I mean, itâs shitty, but if this is the choice they make weâll all be left very âwell what are we going to do about it?â and shoulder shruggy and figure it out, as we have already had to do.
What kind of precautions will there be? Temperature checks at the start of the day? Recheck them at lunch time in case any meds have worn off their parents may have given them? Thatâs unattainable and not a teacherâs job. But that is what a childcare can do. Itâs hard enough to have parents keep sick kids when there isnât a raging pandemic and that isnât going to magically change now. A classroom is anywhere from 20-30 kids (sometimes more, UGH). One positive case there, exposing that many, is a larger exposure than some small business offices. Then you close __ days to clean, but the domino effect doesnât stop. In two weeks will there be another case and another closure? Yes, continuing the current inconvenient WFH standard with distance learning sounds more realistic *to me* than continual multi-day closures.
I know it is far from ideal. But it definitely has taken up space in my mind for the past few weeks.
ETA: and I donât see how we can not close the schools to clean? Do we suddenly stop caring about kids with Covid? âOh yeah, 12 kids from 4th grade are out today, but itâs fine...â
Yeah, agree that these really need to go hand in hand.
H and I are both WFH now, with both kids home, and we're theoretically doing it but we're losing our minds. It's not even the assisting with school work that's the problem, it's that our kids are too little to do ANYTHING independently. It would be completely impossible if one or both of us needed to go back to working outside the home before our kids have a place they can go, whether it's daycare or kindergarten in the fall for DD.
I've said this before, but I personally do not have the mental health to survive through the end of the calendar year. I've been pretty upfront with DH about that, since he's gets to leave to go to work. I also don't know how my boss doesn't realize I'm basically half-assing my job, but here we are.
We had a virtual PTA meeting last night and I basically said "I'm preparing to not be able to hold our large, one-time fundraiser in October," meaning the school will lose out on around $25k.
This is flameful, but I really just want to be able to go to my beach house 2 hours away. They've closed the border of the county and since we're owners, but not residents, we can't go. I would give anything to just be able to stay there and at least have the pool for SOMETHING for my kid to do. We probably wouldn't even go to the beach except for a walk (well when she's fully walking again).
The amount of regression in students will be bad enough come fall. They have to have schools open for as much of the school year as able.
I also do not see teachers working to remedy distance learning this summer. Teachers are burned out big time and are working harder than usual right now, plus so many of the issues are things that either have to be changed by higher ups or they are issues with students/families not able or just not doing the work and not able or just not responding to staff.
Some teachers will, some teachers wonât, but those who do will be doing so by their own choice. I did say that the remainder of this school year will be their opportunity to work out the kinks, I donât expect them to work through the summer. I expect admin will work through the summer (270 day contract I believe as opposed to 180 for teachers?) to work on things like taking attendance, requirements of teachers, reaching the kids who have less accessibility, figuring out service logistics, etc.
It is already a problem that teachers technically arenât contracted to do distance learning. I know we all see a ton of wonderful teachers working hard, but this is a whole different issue for unions and collective bargaining and teacher contracts. Contracts include things like âmust be in the school building from 8:25-3:55â (typically 30 minutes before and after the school day begins and ends), but that suddenly no longer applies and an alternative of âmust be online and available from __ to __â is not there. There are absolutely teachers right now who are saying âthatâs not what my contract saysâ and just collecting their paycheck while insisting they canât/wonât go beyond what they signed a contract for. Even if schools do start back up in the fall thereâs going to be new contracts in place because if we do continual rolling closures for Covid cases does that mean teachers arenât responsible for the continuation of learning through those closures?
usuallylurking, FWIW, my husband's company has done the bare minimum in response to this and no one seems to be batting an eye at it. The only real thing they've done is split shifts and asked them to work through lunch (eat at your desk) so minimize overlap.
They don't/won't explore WFH options citing "security" and "national defense" and basically just treat cases as they come. Even if you think you are sick, you can only go to the on-site health center if you have company health care, they're not even covering all workers. Since their health plan sucks, DH is on mine, which means he has about a dozen steps to do to get a test and get paid leave from work for being possibly sick.
So in theory schools could basically act the same way. "Most" adults are better about not sharing, but then there was a guy at work who was coughing and not feeling well and he thought it was totes ok to go use the communal water cooler (WTF). So now DH is basically in a cocoon of his desk.
Yeah, agree that these really need to go hand in hand.
H and I are both WFH now, with both kids home, and we're theoretically doing it but we're losing our minds. It's not even the assisting with school work that's the problem, it's that our kids are too little to do ANYTHING independently. It would be completely impossible if one or both of us needed to go back to working outside the home before our kids have a place they can go, whether it's daycare or kindergarten in the fall for DD.
This is where I'm at too except that DH is still going in some days so I'm all alone. I'm having a really tough week so far this week and right now I feel like throwing my kids out the window, crawling into bed, and crying. I know no one thought we would have to do this and we are doing it, but I really don't think I can continue like this. I'm lucky if I'm able to get 5 hours of work done a day and most of that is done in 10-15 minute increments. I'm totally unorganized and don't even know what to do when I do get a spare minute to work. I'm waking up at 6 and staying up until 10 to try to work while their asleep. Meanwhile during waking hours my kids watch tv pretty much from 7-7 daily with a few hours outside if we are lucky. Sorry for the rambling, I'm just really feeling it today. Maybe reading your predictions has made it worse and I need to look away. I really should be working right now anyway. Blah
Post by usuallylurking on Apr 14, 2020 8:32:51 GMT -5
ssmjlm Iâd be in a cocoon like your husband as well. I guess sure, schools could totally half ass it and open for the sake of saying âwell we reopened!â And if outbreaks occur we suddenly wonât care? We shut down everything (hyperbole) this go-round, do we not react similarly in the future.
I guess the country, and more specifically schools for the sake of this threadâs conversation, are posed with the same dilemma I had in choosing to close our daycare: if we close now, how can we justifiably reopen when the situation âout thereâ hasnât changed? If what caused us to make the decision to close hasnât resolved (or even improved for that matter), how is it suddenly ok to reopen?
Yeah, agree that these really need to go hand in hand.
H and I are both WFH now, with both kids home, and we're theoretically doing it but we're losing our minds. Â It's not even the assisting with school work that's the problem, it's that our kids are too little to do ANYTHING independently. Â It would be completely impossible if one or both of us needed to go back to working outside the home before our kids have a place they can go, whether it's daycare or kindergarten in the fall for DD.
Fwiw, I do think daycares will reopen. It makes WFH more sustainable for everyone.
Hugs, Mrs.flang. Doing it alone sounds so, so hard.
In some ways having tiny ones is extremely hard because... at 10m, the baby literally doesn't do anything by himself, and at 4, my DD acts like she can't (because she wants my attention). But at least DS still naps 2x/day, and we tuck DD in for (and enforce) quiet time in the afternoon. That is key to my survival. There's a lot of the late night work going on too.
One of my indirect problems is that I've never figured out how to effectively transition from working after kid-bedtime to getting a good night's sleep myself. So I am struggling with shitty sleep, which just makes everything feel worse. The lack of light at the end of the tunnel is getting to me too.
Yeah, agree that these really need to go hand in hand.
H and I are both WFH now, with both kids home, and we're theoretically doing it but we're losing our minds. It's not even the assisting with school work that's the problem, it's that our kids are too little to do ANYTHING independently. It would be completely impossible if one or both of us needed to go back to working outside the home before our kids have a place they can go, whether it's daycare or kindergarten in the fall for DD.
Fwiw, I do think daycares will reopen. It makes WFH more sustainable for everyone.
Mine is actually still open now. My kids' last day there was 3/17, but we're still paying 100% tuition x two kids. Every day that I keep them home is a choice. Knowing that all of my challenges of balancing WFH and parenting are self-inflicted is an exhausting feeling. I am in NYS though, and it doesn't feel like an actual choice.
Fwiw, I do think daycares will reopen. It makes WFH more sustainable for everyone.
Mine is actually still open now. Â My kids' last day there was 3/17, but we're still paying 100% tuition x two kids. Â Every day that I keep them home is a choice. Â Knowing that all of my challenges of balancing WFH and parenting are self-inflicted is an exhausting feeling. Â I am in NYS though, and it doesn't feel like an actual choice.
Hugs. I know itâs got to be tough. I think once these initial curves settle down it will feel safer to utilize daycares. Thereâs going to be a calculated risk in everything we choose to do from this point forward, but I do think sending kids to childcare is an appropriate choice once the spikes have settled.
Have you checked recently? We just canceled our May travel yesterday and got all of the money back in a travel credit (not ideal but better than nothing). I swear every time I looked into canceling it had changed, this was the first time I could easily request full cancelation, and I don't recall seeing a date attached to it.
Yeah theyâre currently allowing cancellation for trips starting before 5/31. Ours is the last week of June.
That's frustrating. Sorry, I didn't see the date range.