Covid--how long will this continue?

[nicolewi]

So...how long are you all thinking this will go on? 

In our area, school closure has been extended through the month, and could be extended. They haven't yet called it for the entire year. Our current state SIP order ends in a couple weeks. We still have not had official word of full cancellation on dance or soccer yet, either, although I don't see how either can possibly pick back up at this point.

People are talking about things being shut down through summer?? I can't imagine businesses can stay shut down that long. Our major summer festivals are all cancelled, which is good, and I get that, but small businesses can't just stay closed forever.

Our annual extended family vacation is the first week in August. I thought for sure that would be fine, but now I'm wondering.

Thoughts? Are you just taking it week by week? How are you planning your future?

[icedcoffee]

At this point I’m thinking summer camps won’t happen. I think daycare will resume June 1 but will close again on a case by case basis as people are infected. I think sports and other activities won’t happen until the fall. I think people will very gradually go back to office jobs in June. I think vacations are out for a while. Maybe a year?

I think “normal” is 18 months out. Bars and dine in restaurants not till fall. None essential shopping will probably return by July.

These are all guesses based of nothing. LOL.

[simpsongal]

Dh knows someone who knows someone who works for Fauci - rumor is they’re talking end of June.

School is already cancelled here, I would plan for that. Thereafter I think you’ll see slow lifting of SIP for various groups. I know experts say testing is key but I can’t imagine our governments waiting to get enough people tested to start rolling back SIP. Not saying that’s right, I just don’t think they will.

[sillygoosegirl]

Our schools have been closed for the academic year (mid-June).

Our governor has said that the stay at home order will be in place until:
- no one has died in our state of COVID-19 for 10 consecutive days.
- there is adequate PPE for workers who need them.
- our hospitals are not over crowded.
- we have staffing and testing to support adequate contact tracing.

The first item on the list isn't projected to happen before early June at the earliest, but looking at the graphs from China, South Korea, Singapore, etc, I think the projections are showing an incredibly optimistically short tail on the curves.

I am pretty much resigned to DD not returning to preschool ever. We've started socializing the notion of homeschooling in the fall, instead of starting kindergarten in the fall like she has previously been expecting. She's been very excited to start kindergarten, so if she does get to start kindergarten in the fall after all, it will be a happy surprise for her (and especially for DH and I).

[nicolewi]

I was fully prepared for the shutdown, but in my head somehow I never saw it lasting past June. It wasn't logical, I just...didn't look that far and assumed somehow (magically?) the situation would resolve. Now I'm starting to confront the reality that it's going to be weird, weird, weird for a long time. Like, my vegetable garden might actually be important this year as a food source instead of just for fun!

[Susie]

We already cancelled our annual group friendcation in mid-August to Colorado. I am super bummed because we also missed last year due to 3 babies being born in 10 months in our 3-family group, so it's already been almost 2 years since our bicoastal group was together.

I am mostly expecting a similar-ish timeline to what icedcoffee described. It's rough. I am trying to take it a day at a time.  I signed DD up for before/after care (she is going to kindergarten in the fall) and it felt really weird, like is this even going to be a thing?  Fortunately it was only a $20 deposit.

[icedcoffee]

Remember when schools were closed for 2 weeks and I was thinking I’d die from being home with my kids for 2 weeks?

Well it’s been 4 weeks and at this point I’m guessing at least 7 more. :::sobs:::

[minniemouse]

I think that it’s going to be slow. By June I am really hoping that most stores will be open and small gatherings allowed. I don’t think the kids will go back to school until September. I am on the fence about summer camp- I need to get them signed up, but who knows what will happen...
I don’t see any very large crowds (concerts, professional sports etc) happening this year. Once we have a vaccine I hope things are normal again, but I hear a lot of people saying things will never be normal- as in, we will always be worried about the next one.

[isabel]

Honestly, at this point, I'm just hoping school starts on time at the end of August.

We are fully expecting to have to cancel our two week trip that is scheduled in July.

[sandandsea]

I’m praying for summer day camp and daycare to open mid June. School is out for the rest of this year and we are in week 5 of SIP at home. It’s not pretty and not sustainable but we’re making do with making up work hours late at night and 6 hours of sleep because that’s what we all have to do. I don’t think the SIP can last 4-6 months though. People are getting antsy and won’t follow it and it’s only been 1 month. And small businesses can’t last. The SBA and PPP loans were for 8 weeks of assistance.


Eta. We cancelled our extended family cruise for the beginning of August. Best case we will still be able to get together somewhere domestically (we are all spread out in the US).

[konapoppy]

Apr 13, 2020 20:14:09 GMT -5 icedcoffee said:

At this point I’m thinking summer camps won’t happen. I think daycare will resume June 1 but will close again on a case by case basis as people are infected. I think sports and other activities won’t happen until the fall. I think people will very gradually go back to office jobs in June. I think vacations are out for a while. Maybe a year?

I think “normal” is 18 months out. Bars and dine in restaurants not till fall. None essential shopping will probably return by July.

These are all guesses based of nothing. LOL.

This is my guess, too. By the end of our SIP (May 4) it will be 7 weeks. If you add more than 4 weeks to that, I truly think people will start revolting.

I think a lot hinges on the antibody testing and tracing.

[abs]

Apr 13, 2020 20:29:17 GMT -5 isabel said:

Honestly, at this point, I'm just hoping school starts on time at the end of August.

We are fully expecting to have to cancel our two week trip that is scheduled in July.

Same. We already cancelled our late June trip. I am honestly just hoping the next school year can start as normal and that we can take our November trip as scheduled. We will see.

I’m hoping by June I can hug my mom again.

[icedcoffee]

I’m really hoping Airbnb extends their cancellation policy through 6/30. We will almost definitely cancel our September cruise as well.

[hamster]

I really can't even think about. On a small scale I hope we can go camping this summer. It's all C is talking about. We already have told him we will go in the driveway so he can at least sleep in the trailer.

[loira]

Apr 13, 2020 20:29:17 GMT -5 isabel said:

Honestly, at this point, I'm just hoping school starts on time at the end of August.

We are fully expecting to have to cancel our two week trip that is scheduled in July.

Same except schools start in September here.

We had planned on going to our family cabin in May, but I'm fully expecting we probably won't. My BIL and his fiancée we're supposed to join us, but they'd be coming up from the US and I 100% expect the border to remain closed for the next few months.

[krystee]

My mom is an ER nurse. Will I not be able to see her until there is a vaccine?!

She has a bunch of PTO so when the full restrictions lift, I think I am going to ask her to take four weeks off. Two to self-quarantine and then we’ll go with her to my parents’ remote cabin for two weeks before we start the process of not seeing each other again.

[krystee]

Also, I am going to predict the restrictions are lifted shortly before the 4th of July and he makes a huge deal about how he got us our freedom back for Independence Day.

[gt7301b]

The Weeds had a podcast on this last week and it was not really reassuring.  Since we don't have a solid federal response I think it will go on for a long time.  I am hoping that the states can come together to put together plans so that will allow schools to open in the fall.  At the very least we need increased testing for me to go to any large event before there is a vaccine.

As an aside my boss is totally clueless and was telling people that he thought we would be back in the office by the end of the month.  Not sure what planet he is living on cause our state has a shelter in place order in place till June 11th and we have been authorized to telework through May 11th, so not sure where that came from.

[dontlook]

Even if the SIP is lifted soon I don’t think things will go back to normal for a while. I will not send my kids back to school this year. As much as I want to send them to summer camp and go back to the gym I can’t see how I will. Each time we leave the house I will wonder if this is the time we get sick. There will be no parks, zoos, museums, mall trips. I’m just settling in for a very different, low key summer. I’m hoping things will be better by fall so I can confidently send my kids back to school.

[pugz]

Apr 13, 2020 20:52:57 GMT -5 icedcoffee said:

I’m really hoping Airbnb extends their cancellation policy through 6/30. We will almost definitely cancel our September cruise as well.

Y E S

I have a June trip I need to cancel but need to so it before April 20th or else we risk losing $2000 vs just $1000...

I don’t think they will give me back the $1k even if they cover our date eventually, but I will fight for it.

[pugz]

I just hope we can go back to school in the fall. Which is mid-August here.

[usuallylurking]

I don’t think school will resume next school year. I think distance learning will be in place until there is a vaccine/the 2021-2022 school year. And I believe the end of this school year is the teacher’s chance to work out the kinks, and from now through the summer is the administration’s time to figure out how to take attendance, reach kids without access, move to one-to-one technology the best they can, find resources for ESL families, etc. Teachers will teach online from their classrooms, children who receive services will attend school for their “appointment”, schools will continue to provide meals. You can’t reopen schools but then deny children who don’t have the antibodies. Opening schools back up and then having to shut down the building for 2-5 days for thorough cleaning anytime there is a case at the school, plus then tracking and tracing any further exposed people will lead to a huuuge break in continuity of education. That would be worse than distance learning, by far.

I don’t think summer camps will happen this year. I do think daycares will reopen; without an educational “need” from them, it is easier to shut down if there is a case and not worry about disrupting the flow of learning. Plus reopening our society to children is the “safest” group to have out there commingling. Families will need to keep in mind their own bubbles and realize their children are sharing germs in the “daycare bubble” and make sure that they don’t go see grandma and grandpa, immunocompromised Aunt Shirley, etc. if they choose to utilize daycare. Opening daycares allow parents to continue to work from home, maintain social distancing, but be more productive.

I don’t think MLB is happening at all. I don’t think any concerts this summer...maybe until next summer? I don’t think the NFL will happen unless they play strictly televised and no crowds. I think restaurants and bars will be allowed small numbers before full reopenings. Possibly outdoor dining through the summer? Hard to say, and I think that will be determined on a state by state basis.

I don’t think public pools will open. I’m not sure when gyms will reopen...maybe they will with strict social distancing and occupancy limits?

It will be sad to continue to isolate our elderly and immunocompromised population, but I do think that group will be the last to be “released” back to “normal” and I don’t foresee it happening until there is a vaccine widely available.

My own selfish hope is that we don’t get shut out of camping for the summer. I’m not sure of the logistics involved, and I recognize it’s my selfish want.

ETA: and I have no idea when places like Disney will reopen, but I would be genuinely surprised if it is within this calendar year.

[ellipses84]

DH and I think June 1 would be the absolute best case scenario for SIP to ease up, in the earliest hit states. I don’t think it will be the best case scenario, and I think there will still be social distancing happening. It will be a long time before crowded places like movie theaters or the travel industry get back to normal.

[memenee]

I don’t think this will “end” until there is a vaccine. Until then we will just keep getting it and spreading it. It sucks.

[al dente]

Do you think people will continue to SIP like they have been into summer/the rest of the year if this continues?

The only things I have done in the past month are two Costco trips, and walks around the neighborhood. I’m very much a rule follower by nature, but even I can’t imagine doing this until December! Even end of June feels tough.

[Aquatica]

I'm estimating in the US until around July, maybe August at the latest. I'm in Korea and we've been at this for 13 weeks now and we're still in high alert of no eating in restaurants/take-out only, limiting how many people can be in stores, social distancing, facilities closed down, masks required in stores, etc. I've given up on seeing an end in sight and I'm now feeling very pessimistic.

[boiler717]

I believe the IHME model assumes that current measures (schools and nonessential business closed, stay at home orders) through August.

[minniemouse]

usuallylurking i cannot imagine distance learning for another year. 😩
I would have to quit my job. It is not
sustainable for people to work from home while assisting young kids with school work. If most businesses are open by august/September I think the schools will have to open too, or else people can’t go back to work.

[minzy]

I think it’s going to be awhile. I have so little confidence in the US federal response. My stepmother couldn’t get a test a month ago and my cousin’s husband couldn’t get one even yesterday. I’d feel better with more testing, tracing, antibody checks, and of course, an actual vaccine. I feel like I’m going to have a hard time going from “stay in your house... if you have to go out, wear one of these homemade masks that don’t actually do much” to “go on, it’s ok, get out there” on some arbitrary magical day. I think “reopening” will definitely have to be a series of steps and the landscape will be different because by then lots of places will not still be in business. One of my kid’s teachers said she hopes to see students at school in May, and I think there’s no way that’s happening.

Then I think about all the possible coronavirus vectors put into place because of a single decision, and stuff like this will also keep me in my house for a bit: www.outsideonline.com/2411094/backcountry-accidents-coronavirus-colorado

[Mrs.flang]

This is so depressing. DH said the other day that he wants to go on a huge vacation "when this is all over" and I mentioned how we had wanted to go to Disney in August 2021 and he said he meant THIS YEAR. I think he is delusional. Even if things go back to normal, I feel so traumatized (for lack of a better word), that I can't even imagine going back to real normal until there is actually a vaccine.

All the other cancellations suck, but the thing I need the most is consistent child care so I can have a freakin break.

Icedcoffee's estimate seems pretty reasonable so hopefully it will be close to that.