Covid--how long will this continue?

[sdlaura]

Apr 14, 2020 11:36:49 GMT -5 hocus2 said:

Apr 14, 2020 11:26:10 GMT -5 sdlaura said:

hocus2 where are you located? I feel like where I live, people aren't comfortable with 6 feet - if we come near anyone, they stay like 20-30 feet apart.

  I live in NYC, in a part fairly impacted by COVID. 

That's really surprising that people aren't staying further apart there!

[hocus2]

Apr 14, 2020 11:37:21 GMT -5 sdlaura said:

Apr 14, 2020 11:36:49 GMT -5 hocus2 said:

  I live in NYC, in a part fairly impacted by COVID. 

That's really surprising that people aren't staying further apart there!

  I don't know. NYC is pretty varied in terms of people's thinking. There are certainly a fair number of people who don't think this is as serious as it is, think their youth/fitness will protect them and/or are simply not aware of the specific rules. 

 People are also packed in tight. The hiking trail is accessible to probably 300,000 people fairly easily and it might be one of a handful of places to go if you life in an apartment.

[Velar Fricative]

Apr 14, 2020 11:25:46 GMT -5 vmars said:

I think South Korea is doing half distance learning and half in school learning to limit class sizes. They are also arranging the children differently (sitting zig zag instead of directly across from one another). I could see this happening until a vaccine is available. We are going to have to learn to completely change the way we do things, but doing what we are doing now is unsustainable long term. I think reopening with significant restrictions will be more sustainable long term.

This could work in some locations but I also think about overcrowded schools already - where can we find the space for this, how do we hire more staff for this in an economic downturn, etc. And while it’s the best we’ve got right now, we are still alienating so many families with e-learning.

[vmars]

Apr 14, 2020 11:48:23 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Apr 14, 2020 11:25:46 GMT -5 vmars said:

I think South Korea is doing half distance learning and half in school learning to limit class sizes. They are also arranging the children differently (sitting zig zag instead of directly across from one another). I could see this happening until a vaccine is available. We are going to have to learn to completely change the way we do things, but doing what we are doing now is unsustainable long term. I think reopening with significant restrictions will be more sustainable long term.

This could work in some locations but I also think about overcrowded schools already - where can we find the space for this, how do we hire more staff for this in an economic downturn, etc. And while it’s the best we’ve got right now, we are still alienating so many families with e-learning.

Our school district (who has lost millions of dollars due to school funding changes) said they are going to be better off financially next year. I guess since school has closed some spending has completely stopped which helped us. Maybe the same will apply to other districts?

[erbear]

One of the big issues of schools reopening (aside from germy kids bringing home allllllll the germs to their families) is that lots of teachers are older. You cannot require that people go into a situation where they are likely to become sick or die. And if half of the teaching profession leaves because that risk isn't worth it, now you've created a terrible situation for kids (teacher shortages = huge classes = inexperienced and untrained adults in the classroom = kids are learning less than they would at home).

[goldengirlz]

Apr 14, 2020 11:04:28 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Apr 14, 2020 10:53:07 GMT -5 dontlook said:

Not only is it unpopular it’s dumb. The flu doesn’t kill nearly as many people.

I just want to point out that the flu actually does kill more people, well historically it has. 2017-2018 was a particularly bad year and approximately 80,000 people in the US died from the flu. These are also estimates since likely more people died from it.

Obviously things could change, but right now covid-19 has "only" killed approximately 24,000 people in the US. That's typically on the lower end for flu season and if things continue to go as they are going covid certainly isn't going to kill 500,000 people this year. 

But covid-19 is obviously a novel virus so it really isn't great to compare it to the flu.

Sorry I just had to chime in because if people are going to debate I believe it's important to use facts where appropriate. 

The flu kills tens of thousands of people in the U.S. but tens of millions contract it every year. If as many people contracted COVID19, we’d see many, many more deaths. In addition, the hospitalization rate for COVID19 is much, much higher than seasonal flu — and that’s a huge problem as well. It’s not just the mortality rate but the strain on healthcare resources.

As a physician, I know you know this, but using that flu statistic (the way people like Trump has) is misleading.

[wanderingback]

Apr 14, 2020 11:19:46 GMT -5 hocus2 said:

Apr 14, 2020 11:04:28 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

I just want to point out that the flu actually does kill more people, well historically it has. 2017-2018 was a particularly bad year and approximately 80,000 people in the US died from the flu. These are also estimates since likely more people died from it.

Obviously things could change, but right now covid-19 has "only" killed approximately 24,000 people in the US. That's typically on the lower end for flu season and if things continue to go as they are going covid certainly isn't going to kill 500,000 people this year. 

But covid-19 is obviously a novel virus so it really isn't great to compare it to the flu.

Sorry I just had to chime in because if people are going to debate I believe it's important to use facts where appropriate. 

   The flu is not mitigated in most communities. You cannot compare a 80,000 death rate from flu to COVID deaths where most of the US is under some type of stay at home order which is specifically designed to limit spread. The current models forecast about 60,000 deaths through summer under highly limiting restrictions. A second wave is still a possibility which may take us over the 80,000 deaths from the flu which spreads largely unchecked most years.

covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

That is what my post said.
I said this is a novel virus so you can't compare it to the flu.
But since the person did I wanted to point out the FACT that more people have not died from the flu and based on current projections most likely won't in this country.
This is obviously a very serious virus like I said, but we still need to stick to facts. 

[wanderingback]

Apr 14, 2020 11:21:59 GMT -5 docholly said:

Let me explain this as simply as possible...

It is ignorant to compare YEARLY figures for influenza to 2 month numbers of Covid-19 (when in conjunction with social distancing measures and shelter in place orders) and to then use that as justification for mass re-opening without protective measures.... "We don't shut down for the flu."

H1N1, if I recall ,had a lower death rate than seasonal flu... And, it responded to antivirals for influenza. That is why we didn't "shut it all down."

Comparing Covid-19 to H1N1 is comparing apples to washing machines...

Comparing Covid-19 to season flu is apples to oranges.

We aren't going to eradicate Covid-19 from the Earth. We aren't going to be able to save every life (as we currently cannot from influenza), but yes, to prevent a massive public health disaster, we have to carefully balance saving as many lives as possible with also re-opening the economy in smart ways. And no, it won't be totally normal until we have a vaccine.

And, a fifty percent chance of not getting a disease that can kill you, is pretty good. Less people getting sick (cut in half!) means less spread and less death. Not an insignificant amount either... That allows us to "stay open" with influenza.

Yes thank you.
That's exactly what I said. 
This is a novel virus so it can't be compared to the flu. We should stop doing that.
I have not been watching the news, but cable news is in particular horrible about presenting facts and go to the more sensational stories.
Anyway, my only point was that if some one is going to throw out facts they certainly should be accurate. But yes 100% agreed that everyone should stop comparing it to the flu. 

[wanderingback]

Apr 14, 2020 12:04:25 GMT -5 goldengirlz said:

Apr 14, 2020 11:04:28 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

I just want to point out that the flu actually does kill more people, well historically it has. 2017-2018 was a particularly bad year and approximately 80,000 people in the US died from the flu. These are also estimates since likely more people died from it.

Obviously things could change, but right now covid-19 has "only" killed approximately 24,000 people in the US. That's typically on the lower end for flu season and if things continue to go as they are going covid certainly isn't going to kill 500,000 people this year. 

But covid-19 is obviously a novel virus so it really isn't great to compare it to the flu.

Sorry I just had to chime in because if people are going to debate I believe it's important to use facts where appropriate. 

The flu kills tens of thousands of people in the U.S. but tens of millions contract it every year. If as many people contracted COVID19, we’d see many, many more deaths. In addition, the hospitalization rate for COVID19 is much, much higher than seasonal flu — and that’s a huge problem as well. It’s not just the mortality rate but the strain on healthcare resources.

As a physician, I know you know this, but using that flu statistic (the way people like Trump has) is misleading.

Yes I certainly agree, that's why I haven't been using it.
I just wanted to point out that the fact that the flu certainly does kill a lot of people (people become complacent about the flu as well).
But yes like my post said I think it's a bad comparison and people should stop using it. 
If people are going to use it they should at least use facts, sorry that was my point. 

[dontlook]

Apr 14, 2020 12:39:43 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Apr 14, 2020 12:04:25 GMT -5 goldengirlz said:

The flu kills tens of thousands of people in the U.S. but tens of millions contract it every year. If as many people contracted COVID19, we’d see many, many more deaths. In addition, the hospitalization rate for COVID19 is much, much higher than seasonal flu — and that’s a huge problem as well. It’s not just the mortality rate but the strain on healthcare resources.

As a physician, I know you know this, but using that flu statistic (the way people like Trump has) is misleading.

Yes I certainly agree, that's why I haven't been using it.
I just wanted to point out that the fact that the flu certainly does kill a lot of people (people become complacent about the flu as well).
But yes like my post said I think it's a bad comparison and people should stop using it. 
If people are going to use it they should at least use facts, sorry that was my point. 

You are right. My post was incorrect. The flu is serious in its own right.

[tripleshot]

Covergirl82 GTFO. Which one of your family members are you willing to sacrifice to open back up the economy? THIS IS NOT THE FUCKING FLU.

[yellow23]

I keep seeing (not necessarily here) that we can’t start returning to normal activities until we have a vaccine. It seems like everyone assumes that will be in 12-18 months, but I thought that was just a best case scenario. Is it not possible a vaccine will take 3 year, 5 years, or they never find one that works? If that happens, do we just sit in our houses for the next 5 years or more?

[icedcoffee]

Apr 14, 2020 8:59:49 GMT -5 Covergirl82 said:

 Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%.

Why do all the antivaxers think that saying 50% effectiveness is bad?  50% effectiveness is excellent.  Shit...I'd get a vaccine if it were even 25% effective.  That's a 50% chance I won't get an illness that can kill me or someone I love.  And an even higher chance that if I do get it it won't be so bad and won't...kill me or someone I love.  You antivaxers have some strange logic.

[Velar Fricative]

Apr 14, 2020 12:52:30 GMT -5 icedcoffee said:

Apr 14, 2020 8:59:49 GMT -5 Covergirl82 said:

 Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%.

Why do all the antivaxers think that saying 50% effectiveness is bad?  50% effectiveness is excellent.  Shit...I'd get a vaccine if it were even 25% effective.  That's a 50% chance I won't get an illness that can kill me or someone I love.  And an even higher chance that if I do get it it won't be so bad and won't...kill me or someone I love.  You antivaxers have some strange logic.

They seem to believe that every vaccine that isn't 100% effective is terrible. This is a major talking point I hear in other places too.

[fancynewbeesly]

Apr 14, 2020 11:55:31 GMT -5 erbear said:

One of the big issues of schools reopening (aside from germy kids bringing home allllllll the germs to their families) is that lots of teachers are older. You cannot require that people go into a situation where they are likely to become sick or die. And if half of the teaching profession leaves because that risk isn't worth it, now you've created a terrible situation for kids (teacher shortages = huge classes = inexperienced and untrained adults in the classroom = kids are learning less than they would at home).

I am a teacher. They haven't closed school yet for us for the year. If they TRY to reopen (we get out mid June), I know my daughter will not be attending (she is high risk), I will take unpaid leave (because she is high risk) and a ton of my co-workers said they would either take unpaid leave (if they aren't old enough to retire) or take early retirement. 

[clseale]

Apr 14, 2020 12:39:43 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Apr 14, 2020 12:04:25 GMT -5 goldengirlz said:

The flu kills tens of thousands of people in the U.S. but tens of millions contract it every year. If as many people contracted COVID19, we’d see many, many more deaths. In addition, the hospitalization rate for COVID19 is much, much higher than seasonal flu — and that’s a huge problem as well. It’s not just the mortality rate but the strain on healthcare resources.

As a physician, I know you know this, but using that flu statistic (the way people like Trump has) is misleading.

Yes I certainly agree, that's why I haven't been using it.
I just wanted to point out that the fact that the flu certainly does kill a lot of people (people become complacent about the flu as well).
But yes like my post said I think it's a bad comparison and people should stop using it. 
If people are going to use it they should at least use facts, sorry that was my point. 

The thing that annoys me when they make the comparison and say the death rate is similar to what we see from the flu, is that we are seeing it and we are completely locked down! So we come out of this not losing any more than we do from the flu and all of the skeptics are all, “See?! No big deal. Just like the flu!” But we will have not left our house for months. Entire countries shut down. How many people would we lose if we all just carried on like we do during flu season? If none of us had cancelled our vacations and we went to our concerts and our kids finished the school year? The numbers are not at all apples to apples. (I’m not saying YOU are saying they are, you’re just the quote I chose to respond to in this conversation.) LOL

[sakoro]

Apr 14, 2020 12:49:52 GMT -5 yellow23 said:

I keep seeing (not necessarily here) that we can’t start returning to normal activities until we have a vaccine. It seems like everyone assumes that will be in 12-18 months, but I thought that was just a best case scenario. Is it not possible a vaccine will take 3 year, 5 years, or they never find one that works? If that happens, do we just sit in our houses for the next 5 years or more?

There’s different levels of social distancing. For example, you could reopen restaurants for dining but only seat people at every other table. You could reopen office buildings but only allow a maximum number of people per floor (so that teams alternate work from home days to keep the total number of people in the room down). Hair salons may reopen but only seat customers at every other chair. Airlines might only seat passengers in window and aisle, no middle seats. We might be required to wear masks on public transit and wipe down hand railings after use.

This way, if an infectious person is on the floor of an office building, or in your bus, or at the hair salon they can only infect a more limited number of people than if it was a full building. Also we need more effective testing and contact tracing so people are more aware of when they have been exposed and can get tested themselves.

[sdlaura]

Apr 14, 2020 12:58:10 GMT -5 fancynewbeesly said:

Apr 14, 2020 11:55:31 GMT -5 erbear said:

One of the big issues of schools reopening (aside from germy kids bringing home allllllll the germs to their families) is that lots of teachers are older. You cannot require that people go into a situation where they are likely to become sick or die. And if half of the teaching profession leaves because that risk isn't worth it, now you've created a terrible situation for kids (teacher shortages = huge classes = inexperienced and untrained adults in the classroom = kids are learning less than they would at home).

I am a teacher. They haven't closed school yet for us for the year. If they TRY to reopen (we get out mid June), I know my daughter will not be attending (she is high risk), I will take unpaid leave (because she is high risk) and a ton of my co-workers said they would either take unpaid leave (if they aren't old enough to retire) or take early retirement. 

I think in a best-case scenario, both kids/families and teachers who don't feel comfortable going back should be able to opt out. With pay and options for distance learning. And the families who feel comfortable taking the risk come fall, as well as the teachers who would like to go back, can do so. But I don't have a lot of hope for that actually happening.

[docholly]

Apr 14, 2020 12:35:06 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Apr 14, 2020 11:21:59 GMT -5 docholly said:

Let me explain this as simply as possible...

It is ignorant to compare YEARLY figures for influenza to 2 month numbers of Covid-19 (when in conjunction with social distancing measures and shelter in place orders) and to then use that as justification for mass re-opening without protective measures.... "We don't shut down for the flu."

H1N1, if I recall ,had a lower death rate than seasonal flu... And, it responded to antivirals for influenza. That is why we didn't "shut it all down."

Comparing Covid-19 to H1N1 is comparing apples to washing machines...

Comparing Covid-19 to season flu is apples to oranges.

We aren't going to eradicate Covid-19 from the Earth. We aren't going to be able to save every life (as we currently cannot from influenza), but yes, to prevent a massive public health disaster, we have to carefully balance saving as many lives as possible with also re-opening the economy in smart ways. And no, it won't be totally normal until we have a vaccine.

And, a fifty percent chance of not getting a disease that can kill you, is pretty good. Less people getting sick (cut in half!) means less spread and less death. Not an insignificant amount either... That allows us to "stay open" with influenza.

Yes thank you.
That's exactly what I said. 
This is a novel virus so it can't be compared to the flu. We should stop doing that.
I have not been watching the news, but cable news is in particular horrible about presenting facts and go to the more sensational stories.
Anyway, my only point was that if some one is going to throw out facts they certainly should be accurate. But yes 100% agreed that everyone should stop comparing it to the flu. 

Oh, my post wasn't to you at all... It was 100 percent in response to Covergirl.  If I hear," but, but, the flu doesn't shutdown the country" one more time, I may actually explode.

[icedcoffee]

I wish the antivaxers would respond to people's questions. I have been stuck in my house for 4 weeks. I'm ready for a conversation. Instead they always just drop a bunch of garbage and then run away.

[shauni27]

Apr 14, 2020 10:02:27 GMT -5 icedcoffee said:

The good (?) thing is that there is a lot of middle ground between what's happening now (total shutdown) and what we were doing (grown adults who don't know how to wash their hands).

I'm hopeful we can get to a place where daycares and childcare for older kids of dual working families is in place while maybe those who sit behind a computer all day can still work from home in peace. And maybe schools can open with some very strict rules in place. And no big sports events, parades, etc., but maybe we can go to a park outside and swing on the monkey bars. And people can resume well doctor visits. And maybe we're still doing online order and pickup, but even "nonessentials" can be picked up from stores. And maybe I can't throw my kid a 50 person birthday party, but maybe I can have 10 close family members over for some cake outside on our deck. These are all things I hope happen in the next couple months.

I am at the point that all of this sounds DREAMY right now. I mean, seriously, going to a play ground and having even just like one family over at a time for a play date--or using our friend's pool this summer...my god. Just, GLORIOUS.

NOT TO MENTION THE DAYCARE! lol.

[brooke77]

I think schools won’t reopen this year. Daycares and businesses July? I don’t think it will be BAU. It will be a slowwww roll-out. 2 steps forward, 1 back sort of thing. I don’t see large concerts, sporting events, cruises and travel happening this year.

I personally will be a bit timid to send DS to daycare the second it opens.

[lovelyshoes]

I don’t think we will go back to school until the Fall and I hope that even happens. I think they might even do two sessions of school (morning and afternoon,( parts of Europe do that). I our sah order will extend until the end of May if not into June. I don’t know how realistic the antibody testing even is since they don’t know for sure if having the antibody protects you for a certain amount of time, if you can still have the virus and infect people, or maybe no protection at all. This is all too new and I live in a hot zone and there’re way too many people to have this organized or even in a month.
Camps and summer sports won’t happen, ours have already been canceled. I don’t see them resuming even in the Fall, maybe in small groups but I doubt that even. I don’t want to go back to daycare. I’m too nervous. I think once we all go back to work, a lot of cases will start again and the elderly and those most vulnerable will still be in the same amount of danger. I pray they develop a vaccine sooner than they think, but testing and all that will take time.

[mx27]

Apr 14, 2020 8:27:38 GMT -5 Mrs.flang said:

Apr 14, 2020 8:13:24 GMT -5 Susie said:

Yeah, agree that these really need to go hand in hand.

H and I are both WFH now, with both kids home, and we're theoretically doing it but we're losing our minds.  It's not even the assisting with school work that's the problem, it's that our kids are too little to do ANYTHING independently.  It would be completely impossible if one or both of us needed to go back to working outside the home before our kids have a place they can go, whether it's daycare or kindergarten in the fall for DD.

This is where I'm at too except that DH is still going in some days so I'm all alone.  I'm having a really tough week so far this week and right now I feel like throwing my kids out the window, crawling into bed, and crying.  I know no one thought we would have to do this and we are doing it, but I really don't think I can continue like this.  I'm lucky if I'm able to get 5 hours of work done a day and most of that is done in 10-15 minute increments.  I'm totally unorganized and don't even know what to do when I do get a spare minute to work.  I'm waking up at 6 and staying up until 10 to try to work while their asleep.  Meanwhile during waking hours my kids watch tv pretty much from 7-7 daily with a few hours outside if we are lucky.  Sorry for the rambling, I'm just really feeling it today.  Maybe reading your predictions has made it worse and I need to look away.  I really should be working right now anyway.  Blah

OMG, having to pivot every couple of minutes b/w work and kids is a hot mess. And, yes, I am working later/earlier than usual to make up for time with my kids. It sucks! Hugs to you. This is a miserable existence and I hope it ends soon.

[RoxMonster]

When this all started about a month ago, I was still pretty optimistic we'd be able to take our road trip vacation in early July. Now I'm pretty convinced we won't be. I'm not saying this like my vacation is the most important thing lol just rather, that is how my mindset has changed over the last four weeks. I know the FB comment section can be absolute trash, but they are real people living in my community who really feel this way and the vast majority of comments I see are people saying this is so overblown, and we just need to get stuff opened up ASAP. I worry that people will really start to not do the social distancing if it goes much into May (right now SIP is until April 30).

I'm a teacher. As of right now, we are only closed til April 30 but I really believe our governor will soon call it for the year. I hope we can go back in mid-August. I hope this summer, we can have restaurants open with limited capacity (maybe like 25-50% of their normal capacity allowed in at a time) and maybe be able to see family or friends in SMALL groups, possibly with the recommendation to wear masks. But who knows? I am not at all in the medical community and am just putting out what I hope we can see. I have been watching the national park closings closely because our vacation was supposed to be to national parks. In one FB group I'm in for the parks, a Yellowstone employee is posting that they are planning to stay shut down until at least June 30.

[gastro]

I’m in CA and school is out for the year (we end the first week of June). I also got notified that one of my kids summer camps is out for sessions before July 10 with possibility of further cancellations.
Schools start back up in early August - I wonder if that will get pushed back.

[orval]

Apr 14, 2020 15:58:26 GMT -5 RoxMonster said:

When this all started about a month ago, I was still pretty optimistic we'd be able to take our road trip vacation in early July. Now I'm pretty convinced we won't be. I'm not saying this like my vacation is the most important thing lol just rather, that is how my mindset has changed over the last four weeks. I know the FB comment section can be absolute trash, but they are real people living in my community who really feel this way and the vast majority of comments I see are people saying this is so overblown, and we just need to get stuff opened up ASAP. I worry that people will really start to not do the social distancing if it goes much into May (right now SIP is until April 30).

I'm a teacher. As of right now, we are only closed til April 30 but I really believe our governor will soon call it for the year. I hope we can go back in mid-August. I hope this summer, we can have restaurants open with limited capacity (maybe like 25-50% of their normal capacity allowed in at a time) and maybe be able to see family or friends in SMALL groups, possibly with the recommendation to wear masks. But who knows? I am not at all in the medical community and am just putting out what I hope we can see. I have been watching the national park closings closely because our vacation was supposed to be to national parks. In one FB group I'm in for the parks, a Yellowstone employee is posting that they are planning to stay shut down until at least June 30.

I have a trip to Yellowstone and Grand Tetons at the beginning of August.  Really hoping it doesnt get cancelled as I have had my reservations at the Old Faithiful Inn for over a year

[erbear]

At the risk of sounding like a broke record, two sessions of school is not going to happen without serious changes (pay raises) for teachers. That is doubling the work load and taking away all prep time. It's not sustainable. I worry that all of this is going to mean that people appreciate teachers even less and demand more.

[redheadbaker]

Apr 14, 2020 15:26:13 GMT -5 lovelyshoes said:

Camps and summer sports won’t happen, ours have already been canceled. I don’t see them resuming even in the Fall, maybe in small groups but I doubt that even. I don’t want to go back to daycare. I’m too nervous. I think once we all go back to work, a lot of cases will start again and the elderly and those most vulnerable will still be in the same amount of danger. I pray they develop a vaccine sooner than they think, but testing and all that will take time.

Wow, really? What area are you in? 

[sdlaura]

This is not exactly an in depth piece of investigative journalism, but apparently the San Francisco YMCA has been running a camp for the last month for the kids of essential workers (including temp checks, social distancing, and lots of hand washing), and apparently none of the kids have gotten sick. Something like this could serve as a model for how to get some kind of camps going again.

abc7news.com/society/coronavirus-kindness-ymca-offers-free-pop-up-camps-for-children-of-essential-workers/6091465/?fbclid=IwAR2ANWBaH6vZbXgGdfLS6ilYPRywHl95T3930UhbhMRhQXTXZaeVEFZKxLM