Covid--how long will this continue?

[Covergirl82]

I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion, but I think there is too much faith in any potential vaccine and there is no way we can reasonably go on like this for another 12-18 months waiting for one. Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%. Viruses mutate. We didn't shut down during H1N1 in 2009-10, and we don't shut down every year during flu season. Almost everyone at my kids' elementary school (over 700 people total, students and staff combined) got a flu-like illness between mid-January and mid-February, and there was no closure due to illness because there were never enough people sick at one time to hit the 25% absence rate.

Are we ok with all the collateral damage (e.g., deaths of despair, increase in depression, more domestic abuse, potentially increased substance abuse, people's livelihoods/incomes gone, small businesses shut down forever, etc.) resulting from shutdowns and no gatherings/events and social distancing? There is a lot of risk getting into a car everyday to go to work, run errands, etc., but people are willing to accept that risk. I do think companies and schools need to be more flexible on letting people stay home/WFH when they are sick (even if it's "just a cold"), and maybe that will be one good outcome of this COVID outbreak. (My kids' school district starts sending truancy warning letters after 5 absences, even if they are excused/due to illness, which I think is ridiculous. Truancy letters should only be sent after so many unexcused absences.)

[CrazyLucky]

In NC, schools are currently out through 5/15, and I will be surprised if they go back at all. Last scheduled day is June 7. School starts back up on August 9, and I am hopeful that will happen. Our county has 13 cases now, 3 of them recovered. We're a rural county (29 hogs per person!), and I think the idea of getting broadband out to every single kid is just not possible. Missing three months of school will be hard on them already. Additionally, seeing as how 45 is such a good Christian and friend of God, I think he will cave to evangelicals who will not be willing to go much longer without church services. I don't think restaurants will open for dining until at least the end of summer, and then I think it'll be a phase in as far as number of people allowed in.

[macmars45]

If H, DS and I can move & put our TH on the market by August I'll be happy. Honestly I'm mentally preparing for it to be delayed until spring/summer 2021. Also I'm mentally preparing myself to home school my DS for his one year of preschool in which I really wanted him to learn social skills.

ETA: I'm in WA state in the Seattle area. School has been cancelled for the remainder of the school year (which is the end of June).

[minniemouse]

Apr 14, 2020 8:11:24 GMT -5 usuallylurking said:

I understand it is an unpopular opinion. And if I’m wrong then I can be pleasantly surprised instead, lol.

But for the “how would people do it?” aspect, look at how people are currently doing it. That’s how. It sucks, but it’s happening. Did anybody two months ago foresee as much working from home as is currently happening? No way. But if businesses can’t resume “normal” due to school closures and looser than SIP but still social distancing then their employees can continue to WFH. Especially if there is a widespread resumption of childcare for the sub-Kinder crowd and parents aren’t juggling that childcare with WFH. Allowing those children to commingle amongst “daycare germs” will allow for us to begin to work towards herd immunity and not threaten the curve, while families still stay within their bubbles.

People will revolt? Ok. But and do what? Drop their kids off at a closed school and drive away? Not pay their taxes? I mean, it’s shitty, but if this is the choice they make we’ll all be left very “well what are we going to do about it?” and shoulder shruggy and figure it out, as we have already had to do.

What kind of precautions will there be? Temperature checks at the start of the day? Recheck them at lunch time in case any meds have worn off their parents may have given them? That’s unattainable and not a teacher’s job. But that is what a childcare can do. It’s hard enough to have parents keep sick kids when there isn’t a raging pandemic and that isn’t going to magically change now. A classroom is anywhere from 20-30 kids (sometimes more, UGH). One positive case there, exposing that many, is a larger exposure than some small business offices. Then you close __ days to clean, but the domino effect doesn’t stop. In two weeks will there be another case and another closure? Yes, continuing the current inconvenient WFH standard with distance learning sounds more realistic *to me* than continual multi-day closures.

I know it is far from ideal. But it definitely has taken up space in my mind for the past few weeks.

ETA: and I don’t see how we can not close the schools to clean? Do we suddenly stop caring about kids with Covid? “Oh yeah, 12 kids from 4th grade are out today, but it’s fine...”

No it’s not realistic. I can say with 100% certainty that my children will learn more going to school even with intermittent multiple day closures than distance learning for over a year. We have dealt with closures in the past during particularly bad winter storms -it’s not ideal but it’s ok. I don’t know how old your kids are or if you work- but as a working (from home) parent my kids are not learning much. My younger one is falling behind because I have to do my job so I don’t get fired. By the time I’m done with work we are all so exhausted. I am by myself with no adults 24/7- it’s just me, a 6 year old and a 10 year old. Even if our school improves the distance learning curriculum it’s still going to require parents to assist or check in for the younger kids. Like i said above, I would have to quit my job. I cannot physically or mentally do this for a whole school year- and I’m sure I’m not the only one.

[maudefindlay]

Apr 14, 2020 8:24:09 GMT -5 usuallylurking said:

Apr 14, 2020 8:11:24 GMT -5 maudefindlay said:

The amount of regression in students will be bad enough come fall. They have to have schools open for as much of the school year as able.

I also do not see teachers working to remedy distance learning this summer. Teachers are burned out big time and are working harder than usual right now, plus so many of the issues are things that either have to be changed by higher ups or they are issues with students/families not able or just not doing the work and not able or just not responding to staff.

Some teachers will, some teachers won’t, but those who do will be doing so by their own choice. I did say that the remainder of this school year will be their opportunity to work out the kinks, I don’t expect them to work through the summer. I expect admin will work through the summer (270 day contract I believe as opposed to 180 for teachers?) to work on things like taking attendance, requirements of teachers, reaching the kids who have less accessibility, figuring out service logistics, etc.

It is already a problem that teachers technically aren’t contracted to do distance learning. I know we all see a ton of wonderful teachers working hard, but this is a whole different issue for unions and collective bargaining and teacher contracts. Contracts include things like “must be in the school building from 8:25-3:55” (typically 30 minutes before and after the school day begins and ends), but that suddenly no longer applies and an alternative of “must be online and available from __ to __” is not there. There are absolutely teachers right now who are saying “that’s not what my contract says” and just collecting their paycheck while insisting they can’t/won’t go beyond what they signed a contract for. Even if schools do start back up in the fall there’s going to be new contracts in place because if we do continual rolling closures for Covid cases does that mean teachers aren’t responsible for the continuation of learning through those closures?

I do not see how teachers can work out kinks when they are swamped as it is. I think any use of elearning next year will continue to be the shitshow it is for educators and parents/students.

[marie]

I just hope that companies are smart about it. I work in finance and we are all successfully working from home right now, there is no need for us to sit in an office. Jobs like mine should continue to stay home the longest for the greater good of the general population. If the hundreds of thousands that can work from home successfully continue to do so, I imagine it will help keep the curve somewhat flat while those that need to physically be at work can get back up and running. I know there is no way to mandate that or anything, but it just seems like the logical way to open businesses back up.

Kids of all ages are missing so much right now, I just want them to get back to their education and activities as soon as possible :-(

[redpenmama]

I don't think that this is an 18-mo shutdown. Obviously, we need to get this outbreak under control before we even think about re-emerging, and we will have to do so cautiously to keep things manageable for healthcare/hospitals. But, I just don't see us all homebound until there's a vaccine. I hope there will be therapeutics available in the fall that can quell major outbreaks. This is something we, to some extent, are going to have to learn to live with and adjust our way of life going forward. 

If we get a reprieve in the summer, it can buy us some time to put mitigation steps in place to help with a fall/winter outbreak. My kids' school has closed for a few days up to a week due to flu outbreak for the last several years. So, we still may see COVID-related closures next school year, but I really cannot imagine all U.S. public schools being closed for the entire academic year. 

ETA: It's possible I'm in denial about next school year...I just cannot imagine having to do this every day while trying to work as well, so I'm trying to think positively about the fall.

[Saudade]

Apr 14, 2020 8:59:49 GMT -5 Covergirl82 said:

I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion, but I think there is too much faith in any potential vaccine and there is no way we can reasonably go on like this for another 12-18 months waiting for one. Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%. Viruses mutate. We didn't shut down during H1N1 in 2009-10, and we don't shut down every year during flu season. Almost everyone at my kids' elementary school (over 700 people total, students and staff combined) got a flu-like illness between mid-January and mid-February, and there was no closure due to illness because there were never enough people sick at one time to hit the 25% absence rate.

Are we ok with all the collateral damage (e.g., deaths of despair, increase in depression, more domestic abuse, potentially increased substance abuse, people's livelihoods/incomes gone, small businesses shut down forever, etc.) resulting from shutdowns and no gatherings/events and social distancing? There is a lot of risk getting into a car everyday to go to work, run errands, etc., but people are willing to accept that risk. I do think companies and schools need to be more flexible on letting people stay home/WFH when they are sick (even if it's "just a cold"), and maybe that will be one good outcome of this COVID outbreak. (My kids' school district starts sending truancy warning letters after 5 absences, even if they are excused/due to illness, which I think is ridiculous. Truancy letters should only be sent after so many unexcused absences.)

says the person who doesn't get a flu shot. 

[thebreakfastclub]

Apr 14, 2020 8:59:49 GMT -5 Covergirl82 said:

I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion, but I think there is too much faith in any potential vaccine and there is no way we can reasonably go on like this for another 12-18 months waiting for one. Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%. Viruses mutate. We didn't shut down during H1N1 in 2009-10, and we don't shut down every year during flu season. Almost everyone at my kids' elementary school (over 700 people total, students and staff combined) got a flu-like illness between mid-January and mid-February, and there was no closure due to illness because there were never enough people sick at one time to hit the 25% absence rate.

Are we ok with all the collateral damage (e.g., deaths of despair, increase in depression, more domestic abuse, potentially increased substance abuse, people's livelihoods/incomes gone, small businesses shut down forever, etc.) resulting from shutdowns and no gatherings/events and social distancing? There is a lot of risk getting into a car everyday to go to work, run errands, etc., but people are willing to accept that risk. I do think companies and schools need to be more flexible on letting people stay home/WFH when they are sick (even if it's "just a cold"), and maybe that will be one good outcome of this COVID outbreak. (My kids' school district starts sending truancy warning letters after 5 absences, even if they are excused/due to illness, which I think is ridiculous. Truancy letters should only be sent after so many unexcused absences.)

It's probably going to be as unpopular as when you were anti flu shot.

[icedcoffee]

The good (?) thing is that there is a lot of middle ground between what's happening now (total shutdown) and what we were doing (grown adults who don't know how to wash their hands).

I'm hopeful we can get to a place where daycares and childcare for older kids of dual working families is in place while maybe those who sit behind a computer all day can still work from home in peace. And maybe schools can open with some very strict rules in place. And no big sports events, parades, etc., but maybe we can go to a park outside and swing on the monkey bars. And people can resume well doctor visits. And maybe we're still doing online order and pickup, but even "nonessentials" can be picked up from stores. And maybe I can't throw my kid a 50 person birthday party, but maybe I can have 10 close family members over for some cake outside on our deck. These are all things I hope happen in the next couple months.

[InBetweenDays]

Apr 14, 2020 8:59:49 GMT -5 Covergirl82 said:

I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion, but I think there is too much faith in any potential vaccine and there is no way we can reasonably go on like this for another 12-18 months waiting for one. Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%. Viruses mutate. We didn't shut down during H1N1 in 2009-10, and we don't shut down every year during flu season. Almost everyone at my kids' elementary school (over 700 people total, students and staff combined) got a flu-like illness between mid-January and mid-February, and there was no closure due to illness because there were never enough people sick at one time to hit the 25% absence rate.

Are we ok with all the collateral damage (e.g., deaths of despair, increase in depression, more domestic abuse, potentially increased substance abuse, people's livelihoods/incomes gone, small businesses shut down forever, etc.) resulting from shutdowns and no gatherings/events and social distancing? There is a lot of risk getting into a car everyday to go to work, run errands, etc., but people are willing to accept that risk. I do think companies and schools need to be more flexible on letting people stay home/WFH when they are sick (even if it's "just a cold"), and maybe that will be one good outcome of this COVID outbreak. (My kids' school district starts sending truancy warning letters after 5 absences, even if they are excused/due to illness, which I think is ridiculous. Truancy letters should only be sent after so many unexcused absences.)

Well I guess I don't see a 50% reduction of this illness as a small thing. If we can get a vaccine that will cut infection in half I think that would be GREAT! But we get it - you've made it clear that you don't believe in giving your kids the flu vaccine but do believe in homeopathic remedies that have not shown ANY effectiveness, much less a 50% effectiveness.

I'm not sure why you're comparing this shut down to outbreaks of H1N1 and the annual flu season. During those outbreaks we don't have hospitals becoming overwhelmed, mass graves being dug, and bodies being stored in spare hospital rooms that are normally used for sleep studies. And regarding the risk of getting in the car every day - I'm pretty sure my parents don't have a 20% risk of dying every time they go to run errands. But that is the risk of them dying if they get COVID-19. Not to mention the increased risk for my 45 year old friend who has smoldering myeloma or my friend's 48 year old husband who has been battling prostate cancer for 13 years or my 50 year old cousin who has diabetes. So STFU with that comparison.

Do I think we can sustain a long term lock down? No. Am I ok with the collateral damage that has occurred due to the current lock down? Absolutely. But I don't think we can just open things back up and return to normal any time soon. We're going to have to figure out a balance and way to either slowly come out of this or do rolling lock downs or who knows what the solution will be. 

[Velar Fricative]

Covergirl82 - I haven't seen anyone say keep the economy shut down for at least 12-18 months. Of course we have to reopen. We just have to do it gradually and logically. Can we just get through this awful peak period first so we don't continue to overwhelm healthcare workers forever?

[usuallylurking]

Apr 14, 2020 10:02:27 GMT -5 icedcoffee said:

The good (?) thing is that there is a lot of middle ground between what's happening now (total shutdown) and what we were doing (grown adults who don't know how to wash their hands).

I'm hopeful we can get to a place where daycares and childcare for older kids of dual working families is in place while maybe those who sit behind a computer all day can still work from home in peace. And maybe schools can open with some very strict rules in place. And no big sports events, parades, etc., but maybe we can go to a park outside and swing on the monkey bars. And people can resume well doctor visits. And maybe we're still doing online order and pickup, but even "nonessentials" can be picked up from stores. And maybe I can't throw my kid a 50 person birthday party, but maybe I can have 10 close family members over for some cake outside on our deck. These are all things I hope happen in the next couple months.

I agree with this.

I realize saying distance learning for a full school year sounds extreme, and I’m sorry to add fuel to a fire when people are just trying to make it through the current situation. I promise I didn’t come up with it out of nowhere- when our state extended the on-site school closures our state superintendent mentioned “possibly into fall” enough that it felt realistic and not an offhand, CYA comment. He also went on to say that access to distance learning is as much of a basic right as clean water, which felt like he is gearing up to justify and defend ongoing e-learning. I know there are a *lot* of logistics involved with reopening schools, especially before a vaccine. I hope it is attainable and solutions are found.

[sdlaura]

marie I also work in finance and agree with you. I keep seeing projections where people go back to work but schools stay closed, and I’m just thinking - why aren’t we modeling people continuing to work from home wherever they can, but schools reopening sooner? I think that would be more sustainable for many parents. I don’t enjoy working from home, but there are so many industries where productivity is nearly as high if you don’t have kids at home.

[boiler717]

I think we will go back to school in August, but still practice distancing as much as possible. I think it’s highly likely that school will move to elearning again over the winter, then resume in the spring. Hopefully by then we will not only have a vaccine but antibody treatment.

[hocus2]

Apr 14, 2020 8:59:49 GMT -5 Covergirl82 said:

I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion, but I think there is too much faith in any potential vaccine and there is no way we can reasonably go on like this for another 12-18 months waiting for one. Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%. Viruses mutate. We didn't shut down during H1N1 in 2009-10, and we don't shut down every year during flu season. Almost everyone at my kids' elementary school (over 700 people total, students and staff combined) got a flu-like illness between mid-January and mid-February, and there was no closure due to illness because there were never enough people sick at one time to hit the 25% absence rate.

Are we ok with all the collateral damage (e.g., deaths of despair, increase in depression, more domestic abuse, potentially increased substance abuse, people's livelihoods/incomes gone, small businesses shut down forever, etc.) resulting from shutdowns and no gatherings/events and social distancing? There is a lot of risk getting into a car everyday to go to work, run errands, etc., but people are willing to accept that risk. I do think companies and schools need to be more flexible on letting people stay home/WFH when they are sick (even if it's "just a cold"), and maybe that will be one good outcome of this COVID outbreak. (My kids' school district starts sending truancy warning letters after 5 absences, even if they are excused/due to illness, which I think is ridiculous. Truancy letters should only be sent after so many unexcused absences.)

I do not think people expect to remain under a stay at home order for 18 months. I am not sure the flu vaccine is a great predictor and flu in general isn't the best model as it is less contagious, not novel and appears to have a much lower death rate. We might end up with strains A,B, C of covid19 etc but other vaccines like measles generally offer fairly long term immunity. We don't really know what will happen but I think annual shots might be one outcome. Even if they don't fully stop the infection they lesson the impact in individuals and reduce the spread.

In general I think what we really need is decisive action or  things will just swing widely which is more damaging than just remaining where we are. We're not getting it from the Federal Government which is concerning and will slow the reopening and mute the effective plans states have because people move from states with no guardrails into states with strong ones and visa versa. 


Things we need.
    A. Paid sick leave, coverage of covid medical costs (at least) and reasonable sick policies at both work and school. For example a lot of work policies give 5 work days which is not sufficient. People who test positive need some financial protection otherwise they won't stay home.
    B. Wide spread and rapid testing. Currently we've tested less than 5% of the US we really have no idea how many people have this illness. Tests are also so delayed they are functionally irrelevant  from a containment view. If you have to wait 10-14 days for a test it doesn't much help.
    C. Supply chain resolution both in terms of PPE and testing materials but also in terms of the food supply.
    D. Contact tracing. Our current local governments do not have the staff to do contract tracing at the scale we need. There are various proposals in place on how to address this but we without a way to do surgical containment we're going to swing from open/closed/open/closed until a vaccine is widely available.
    E. Laws/Regulations etc around safe work places. OSHA might have a role here but in general we need to protect the works who keep the basics aspects of the US going so the individuals are protected and do not spread illness to their families.



 

[Patsy Baloney]

In my cynical view - ‘mericans gonna ‘merica. We’ll do this for now, but not for long. Eventually, people will think that a) it’s not a big enough problem where they live that they will likely not be infected b) the risk of infection is worth return to normalcy.

This current cycle is unsustainable. I think states that have acted quickly and aggressively will be ready to take on new infections and those who need hospital stays without sinking the whole operation. Making new medical facilities, ramping up labs, purchasing supplies, etc., is all to get us to a place where we can live with coronavirus. Hospitals have to be able to start doing elective surgeries and procedures or they’ll go under. So there must be some middle ground.

States that didn’t? I don’t know. And with the type of travel we’re capable of? I don’t know.

I don’t think eradication was ever the goal for the United States. I don’t think it was ever possible. I do think that people who have the luxury to be cautious (I’m one of them happily working from home) will continue to be until there’s a vaccine. But not everyone can do that.

I am very encouraged and happy to see regions banding together to brainstorm how to re-open safely and contain the spread. Fuck the feds. Thank the good lord for good state governments.

I think one death was too many from this and the blood is on our federal government’s hands. But Pandora’s box is open, and we cannot close it. So now we learn to live with it.

[Deleted]

It was a little over 2 months for China so I would expect similar. Once there is much wider testing and antibody testing they can open things up more IMO. Until they have the testing capability they just can’t because who knows who has it or who had had it?

Our schools are closed for the rest of the year. Out stay at home order expires at the end of this month, but I bet it will be extended for at least a few more weeks into May. Doing much longer is absolutely unsustainable. Once the hospitals are better equipped and we have wider testing capabilities I really believe things will open up.

We have a big trip planned for the end of May to Japan and I don’t think it will happen, however I can’t bring myself to cancel it yet (I have until 5/23). I’m hopeful that things will look different next month.

I also think that we will do this all over again with a second wave in the fall, but I’m really optimistic that things will opened again temporarily in between. And then hopefully a vaccine will be available and the antibody testing will be much much much more widespread and we can go back to a relatively normal post covid life.

[Velar Fricative]

Apr 14, 2020 10:33:57 GMT -5 Patsy Baloney said:

States that didn’t? I don’t know. And with the type of travel we’re capable of? I don’t know.

This is the part that scares the crap out of me. I live in NYC. We are probably at our peak, although we're holding steady but we have hope that it will go down...someday. But then there are parts of the country that still have no SIP in place, or did it so late that they may see similar per capita numbers after we've seen our numbers finally go down. So after we've done all we can here to mitigate this situation, that could all be jeopardized if someone asymptomatic from Arkansas plans to take a nice scenic drive and spend some time here. Hell, I'm even afraid of when the New Yorkers that fled to their second homes return and how the hell we're going to handle that. This is why our lack of federal response is horrific. 

[dontlook]

Apr 14, 2020 8:59:49 GMT -5 Covergirl82 said:

I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion, but I think there is too much faith in any potential vaccine and there is no way we can reasonably go on like this for another 12-18 months waiting for one. Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%. Viruses mutate. We didn't shut down during H1N1 in 2009-10, and we don't shut down every year during flu season. Almost everyone at my kids' elementary school (over 700 people total, students and staff combined) got a flu-like illness between mid-January and mid-February, and there was no closure due to illness because there were never enough people sick at one time to hit the 25% absence rate.

Are we ok with all the collateral damage (e.g., deaths of despair, increase in depression, more domestic abuse, potentially increased substance abuse, people's livelihoods/incomes gone, small businesses shut down forever, etc.) resulting from shutdowns and no gatherings/events and social distancing? There is a lot of risk getting into a car everyday to go to work, run errands, etc., but people are willing to accept that risk. I do think companies and schools need to be more flexible on letting people stay home/WFH when they are sick (even if it's "just a cold"), and maybe that will be one good outcome of this COVID outbreak. (My kids' school district starts sending truancy warning letters after 5 absences, even if they are excused/due to illness, which I think is ridiculous. Truancy letters should only be sent after so many unexcused absences.)

Not only is it unpopular it’s dumb. The flu doesn’t kill nearly as many people.

I’m not advocating for staying on lock down for 12-18 months but there are definitely some industries that should look at how well working from home has gone and use that model for the foreseeable future. More stores need to push pick up delivery, fewer in store hours with more time to close and clean, schools need to look at fewer assemblies, smaller lunch groups, increased daily cleaning.

Small business can open back up tomorrow and I guarantee you they will still be hit hard financially. Most people aren’t going to go back to playing at indoor playgrounds, children museums, going to music lessons, sports, etc until we have some assurance we aren’t going to end up in the ICU.

[sdlaura]

I think Californians have taken SIP pretty seriously for over a month now, and we're lucky that our hospitals weren't crushed like some areas, and we have the ability to send ventilators to other states. But I agree with the PPs who say that compliance is going to start to fall off if restrictions don't start to loosen a little bit. I know schools will stay closed the rest of the school year, but it would be nice to have parks and beaches re-open and tell people to still stay 6 feet apart. And it would be nice to be able to go get a haircut while wearing a mask, or go to a restaurant that has only every third table available so people are far apart. I think if some of these things don't happen by say, mid-June, you'll see people start to not comply with social distancing restrictions.

[wanderingback]

Apr 14, 2020 10:53:07 GMT -5 dontlook said:

Apr 14, 2020 8:59:49 GMT -5 Covergirl82 said:

I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion, but I think there is too much faith in any potential vaccine and there is no way we can reasonably go on like this for another 12-18 months waiting for one. Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%. Viruses mutate. We didn't shut down during H1N1 in 2009-10, and we don't shut down every year during flu season. Almost everyone at my kids' elementary school (over 700 people total, students and staff combined) got a flu-like illness between mid-January and mid-February, and there was no closure due to illness because there were never enough people sick at one time to hit the 25% absence rate.

Are we ok with all the collateral damage (e.g., deaths of despair, increase in depression, more domestic abuse, potentially increased substance abuse, people's livelihoods/incomes gone, small businesses shut down forever, etc.) resulting from shutdowns and no gatherings/events and social distancing? There is a lot of risk getting into a car everyday to go to work, run errands, etc., but people are willing to accept that risk. I do think companies and schools need to be more flexible on letting people stay home/WFH when they are sick (even if it's "just a cold"), and maybe that will be one good outcome of this COVID outbreak. (My kids' school district starts sending truancy warning letters after 5 absences, even if they are excused/due to illness, which I think is ridiculous. Truancy letters should only be sent after so many unexcused absences.)

Not only is it unpopular it’s dumb. The flu doesn’t kill nearly as many people.

I just want to point out that the flu actually does kill more people, well historically it has. 2017-2018 was a particularly bad year and approximately 80,000 people in the US died from the flu. These are also estimates since likely more people died from it.

Obviously things could change, but right now covid-19 has "only" killed approximately 24,000 people in the US. That's typically on the lower end for flu season and if things continue to go as they are going covid certainly isn't going to kill 500,000 people this year. 

But covid-19 is obviously a novel virus so it really isn't great to compare it to the flu.

Sorry I just had to chime in because if people are going to debate I believe it's important to use facts where appropriate. 

[redheadk]

Apr 14, 2020 10:13:14 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

Also, just gonna put this out there, some people are acting like the rest of us haven't considered domestic violence, child abuse, substance abuse, poverty and other issues that are impacted negatively by the shutdowns. Many of us actually work in these fields and are very much aware of these problems FFS.

I'll go further and say that is seems like some people seem to use these issues as an excuse to throw around because socially distancing is unpleasant and not because they are truly passionate about the outcomes for people who experience problems that are magnified by the current situation. 

[hocus2]

Apr 14, 2020 10:54:24 GMT -5 sdlaura said:

I think Californians have taken SIP pretty seriously for over a month now, and we're lucky that our hospitals weren't crushed like some areas, and we have the ability to send ventilators to other states. But I agree with the PPs who say that compliance is going to start to fall off if restrictions don't start to loosen a little bit. I know schools will stay closed the rest of the school year, but it would be nice to have parks and beaches re-open and tell people to still stay 6 feet apart. And it would be nice to be able to go get a haircut while wearing a mask, or go to a restaurant that has only every third table available so people are far apart. I think if some of these things don't happen by say, mid-June, you'll see people start to not comply with social distancing restrictions.

  Our local hiking path is open and people are NOT keeping 6 feet apart. Personally I think much more regulation of things would be needed (making the trails one way, metering access and limiting group size on the trail. We also need to more strictly enforce leash regulations so owners are not running after animals who try to say hello to others.

[hocus2]

Apr 14, 2020 11:04:28 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Apr 14, 2020 10:53:07 GMT -5 dontlook said:

Not only is it unpopular it’s dumb. The flu doesn’t kill nearly as many people.

I just want to point out that the flu actually does kill more people, well historically it has. 2017-2018 was a particularly bad year and approximately 80,000 people in the US died from the flu. These are also estimates since likely more people died from it.

Obviously things could change, but right now covid-19 has "only" killed approximately 24,000 people in the US. That's typically on the lower end for flu season and if things continue to go as they are going covid certainly isn't going to kill 500,000 people this year. 

But covid-19 is obviously a novel virus so it really isn't great to compare it to the flu.

Sorry I just had to chime in because if people are going to debate I believe it's important to use facts where appropriate. 

   The flu is not mitigated in most communities. You cannot compare a 80,000 death rate from flu to COVID deaths where most of the US is under some type of stay at home order which is specifically designed to limit spread. The current models forecast about 60,000 deaths through summer under highly limiting restrictions. A second wave is still a possibility which may take us over the 80,000 deaths from the flu which spreads largely unchecked most years.

covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[docholly]

Let me explain this as simply as possible...

It is ignorant to compare YEARLY figures for influenza to 2 month numbers of Covid-19 (when in conjunction with social distancing measures and shelter in place orders) and to then use that as justification for mass re-opening without protective measures.... "We don't shut down for the flu."

H1N1, if I recall ,had a lower death rate than seasonal flu... And, it responded to antivirals for influenza. That is why we didn't "shut it all down."

Comparing Covid-19 to H1N1 is comparing apples to washing machines...

Comparing Covid-19 to season flu is apples to oranges.

We aren't going to eradicate Covid-19 from the Earth. We aren't going to be able to save every life (as we currently cannot from influenza), but yes, to prevent a massive public health disaster, we have to carefully balance saving as many lives as possible with also re-opening the economy in smart ways. And no, it won't be totally normal until we have a vaccine.

And, a fifty percent chance of not getting a disease that can kill you, is pretty good. Less people getting sick (cut in half!) means less spread and less death. Not an insignificant amount either... That allows us to "stay open" with influenza.

[vmars]

I think South Korea is doing half distance learning and half in school learning to limit class sizes. They are also arranging the children differently (sitting zig zag instead of directly across from one another). I could see this happening until a vaccine is available. We are going to have to learn to completely change the way we do things, but doing what we are doing now is unsustainable long term. I think reopening with significant restrictions will be more sustainable long term.

[sdlaura]

hocus2 where are you located? I feel like where I live, people aren't comfortable with 6 feet - if we come near anyone, they stay like 20-30 feet apart.

[Susie]

Apr 14, 2020 8:59:49 GMT -5 Covergirl82 said:

Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%. Viruses mutate. 

This is not a valid comparison, stop armchair scienceing.  The influenza virus mutates much faster than SARS-CoV-2.

www.washingtonpost.com/health/the-coronavirus-isnt-mutating-quickly-suggesting-a-vaccine-would-offer-lasting-protection/2020/03/24/406522d6-6dfd-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html

[hocus2]

Apr 14, 2020 11:26:10 GMT -5 sdlaura said:

hocus2 where are you located? I feel like where I live, people aren't comfortable with 6 feet - if we come near anyone, they stay like 20-30 feet apart.

  I live in NYC, in a part fairly impacted by COVID.