Covid--how long will this continue?

[sillygoosegirl]

Apr 14, 2020 23:36:25 GMT -5 sdlaura said:

This is not exactly an in depth piece of investigative journalism, but apparently the San Francisco YMCA has been running a camp for the last month for the kids of essential workers (including temp checks, social distancing, and lots of hand washing), and apparently none of the kids have gotten sick. Something like this could serve as a model for how to get some kind of camps going again.

abc7news.com/society/coronavirus-kindness-ymca-offers-free-pop-up-camps-for-children-of-essential-workers/6091465/?fbclid=IwAR2ANWBaH6vZbXgGdfLS6ilYPRywHl95T3930UhbhMRhQXTXZaeVEFZKxLM

The real test of success though is not nobody getting sick. That's a combination of luck, class size, and how effectively the families of those kids are isolating themselves (outside essential business, obvs). The real test is if one kid gets COVID-19 and they still succeed in not spreading it through care to the other kids/families that go there.

[lovelyshoes]

Apr 14, 2020 20:01:15 GMT -5 redheadbaker said:

Apr 14, 2020 15:26:13 GMT -5 lovelyshoes said:

Camps and summer sports won’t happen, ours have already been canceled. I don’t see them resuming even in the Fall, maybe in small groups but I doubt that even. I don’t want to go back to daycare. I’m too nervous. I think once we all go back to work, a lot of cases will start again and the elderly and those most vulnerable will still be in the same amount of danger. I pray they develop a vaccine sooner than they think, but testing and all that will take time.

Wow, really? What area are you in? 

NYC metro.

[Velar Fricative]

lovelyshoes, summer stuff seems to be case-by-case. DD1's Y summer camp in NYC hasn't been cancelled, though I'm expecting it to be.

[waverly]

Apr 14, 2020 8:59:49 GMT -5 Covergirl82 said:

I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion, but I think there is too much faith in any potential vaccine and there is no way we can reasonably go on like this for another 12-18 months waiting for one. Look at the effectiveness statistics on the CDC website for the annual flu vaccine - the best years for effectiveness are around 50%. Viruses mutate. We didn't shut down during H1N1 in 2009-10, and we don't shut down every year during flu season. Almost everyone at my kids' elementary school (over 700 people total, students and staff combined) got a flu-like illness between mid-January and mid-February, and there was no closure due to illness because there were never enough people sick at one time to hit the 25% absence rate.

Are we ok with all the collateral damage (e.g., deaths of despair, increase in depression, more domestic abuse, potentially increased substance abuse, people's livelihoods/incomes gone, small businesses shut down forever, etc.) resulting from shutdowns and no gatherings/events and social distancing? There is a lot of risk getting into a car everyday to go to work, run errands, etc., but people are willing to accept that risk. I do think companies and schools need to be more flexible on letting people stay home/WFH when they are sick (even if it's "just a cold"), and maybe that will be one good outcome of this COVID outbreak. (My kids' school district starts sending truancy warning letters after 5 absences, even if they are excused/due to illness, which I think is ridiculous. Truancy letters should only be sent after so many unexcused absences.)

This pandemic has nothing really in common with typical influenza years or H1N1 in modern years. We have therapies and vaccines for them, millions will not be hospitalized or die like with covid if we didn’t shut down.

The viruses are different but this pandemic far more resembles the 1918 pandemic where 25-50 million died, no therapies or vaccines, and there were shut downs.

In the spring of March 1918 the virus was not as deadly (not true with covid 19). It was seasonal (probably not the case with covid). It mutated over the summer to be far more deadly (which I don’t think will happen with covid- it is already deadly). In the fall with schools back, troops coming home and the seasonal aspect that is when it really hit hard.

Like the current pandemic there was a geographic aspect to where it hit earlier. Philly closed late after a parade and their hospitals were quickly overwhelmed with far more deaths. St. Louis watched all this and closed early and far less deaths. But St Louis opened too early and had a second spike, and had to close down again. This is where we are if we open too early it will only spike, and we will have to close again.

The closures extended from October - January 1918. They tried to let it up in November. My point is it wasn’t 18 months of lockdown until a vaccine. It turned out to be 3-4 months of lockdown and no vaccine, but the actual virus did linger until 1920. . Obviously this is very different all the way around, but this is the closest thing we have to study to see what might happen.

[dreamcrisp1]

Supposedly schools and daycare may open here in May. But we will see. We find out on Tuesday whether measures will be extended past April 28. To be honest, I don’t think they can keep people down if the weather continues to stay/get nice. People here are not listening so if they don’t go into full lockdown or fine a ton of people, they will keep doing as they please. Every day people listen less and less to the social distancing requirements.

[waverly]

One last thought a vaccine is the equivalent of social distancing. Vaccine = social distancing / quarantine. If you have a vaccine you don’t shed the virus to contaminate other people. If you quarantine there are no other people to shed the virus to.

This is why we have to social distance ourselves when there is a very spready virus with no vaccine. If we have a vaccine we don’t have to social distance. That’s why the CDC recommends everyone get the flu vaccine.

[InBetweenDays]

Apr 15, 2020 8:55:02 GMT -5 melmaria said:

Apr 15, 2020 8:25:56 GMT -5 waverly said:

One last thought a vaccine is the equivalent of social distancing. Vaccine = social distancing / quarantine. If you have a vaccine you don’t shed the virus to contaminate other people. If you quarantine there are no other people to shed the virus to.

This is why we have to social distance ourselves when there is a very spready virus with no vaccine. If we have a vaccine we don’t have to social distance. That’s why the CDC recommends everyone get the flu vaccine.

And yet Covergirl82 is back on Working Parents this morning, posting away, not addressing any of this.

This almost pisses me off more than her anti-vax crap. It's like it's amusing to her to come drop these statements that she knows will get everyone upset. This isn't an f'in game. If you're going to spout this BS at least have the courage and conviction to try and explain your stance.

[lovelyshoes]

Apr 15, 2020 7:41:00 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

lovelyshoes, summer stuff seems to be case-by-case. DD1's Y summer camp in NYC hasn't been cancelled, though I'm expecting it to be.

Of course, I’m just stating what our current situation is. I’m sure some will open if they have people go back to work. I just hope they find a way to keep everything not as packed as usual. I can’t imagine rush hour subways and buses.

[hermione]

DH is a professor at an urban university. Summer classes are all online. They've been told to assume all fall classes will be virtual though that has not been announced publicly yet.

[icedcoffee]

Apr 15, 2020 9:48:03 GMT -5 InBetweenDays said:

Apr 15, 2020 8:55:02 GMT -5 melmaria said:

And yet Covergirl82 is back on Working Parents this morning, posting away, not addressing any of this.

This almost pisses me off more than her anti-vax crap. It's like it's amusing to her to come drop these statements that she knows will get everyone upset. This isn't an f'in game. If you're going to spout this BS at least have the courage and conviction to try and explain your stance.

Yep.  Hey Covergirl82.  People have given SCIENTIFIC FACTS to refute your OPINIONS.  Care to come back and defend your opinions?

[redpenmama]

Apr 15, 2020 9:50:41 GMT -5 hermione said:

DH is a professor at an urban university. Summer classes are all online. They've been told to assume all fall classes will be virtual though that has not been announced publicly yet.

Interesting. My H is also a professor/administrator at a university, and it's up for debate here as well. They just shifted summer session online but haven't made any decisions yet on fall. I suspect they will end up online as well.

[redheadbaker]

Apr 15, 2020 10:17:56 GMT -5 melmaria said:

Apr 15, 2020 9:54:24 GMT -5 icedcoffee said:

Yep.  Hey Covergirl82 .  People have given SCIENTIFIC FACTS to refute your OPINIONS.  Care to come back and defend your opinions?

Are there really no policies for this board regarding people who disseminate dangerous anti-vax opinions?  

Tagging mods redheadbaker suzubell 

Not really, no. If there is a group consensus that they want CoverGirl banned from the board, I can ask the global mods. But that would only affect this board, she could still post on other GBCN boards.

But really, I recommend just blocking her.

[y4m]

Apr 15, 2020 12:09:39 GMT -5 redheadbaker said:

Apr 15, 2020 10:17:56 GMT -5 melmaria said:

Are there really no policies for this board regarding people who disseminate dangerous anti-vax opinions?  

Tagging mods redheadbaker suzubell  

Not really, no. If there is a group consensus that they want CoverGirl banned from the board, I can ask the global mods. But that would only affect this board, she could still post on other GBCN boards.

But really, I recommend just blocking her.

Our global moderation here tends to be very hands off, but some boards (like CEP) choose to have stricter rules and more active moderation and you're welcome to do that at a board level in this case if you'd like.  

[nicolewi]

I completely disagree with covergirl about vaccinations, but blocking someone bc her views are different feels very icky to me. I think we are all smart enough to make our own decisions re: vax and wouldn't just follow blindly what someone says on this board. I don't understand some of the outright hostility. I mean, yeah, we do all the shots in this family..I believe strongly in them...but we don't all have to have the exact same views in order to post together on a chat board. It is good for us to have some diversity of opinions or this would get pretty boring. She's not saying anything that is purposely hostile to anyone else.

[redheadbaker]

Apr 15, 2020 14:06:22 GMT -5 melmaria said:

Apr 15, 2020 13:11:11 GMT -5 nicolewi said:

I completely disagree with covergirl about vaccinations, but blocking someone bc her views are different feels very icky to me. I think we are all smart enough to make our own decisions re: vax and wouldn't just follow blindly what someone says on this board. I don't understand some of the outright hostility. I mean, yeah, we do all the shots in this family..I believe strongly in them...but we don't all have to have the exact same views in order to post together on a chat board. It is good for us to have some diversity of opinions or this would get pretty boring. She's not saying anything that is purposely hostile to anyone else.

I know you didn't direct this specifically at me, but I didn't actually propose blocking her.  I asked if there was a policy re: disseminating dangerous anti-vax information (which yes, could include blocking, but could also include deleting/otherwise removing posts).

Yes, this is a public message board and diversity of opinions is welcome.  That doesn't make it a free for all to deliberately post harmful information over and over again.  I was also thinking about CEP's board-specific policies, which y4m alluded to, which is why I asked.

Aside from outright spam and posting of someone's personal info, we typically don't delete posts unless requested by the person who posted it.

[ssmjlm]

Virginia just extended non-essential to May 8. I joked with DH that we're all going to know my real hair color by the end of this. They're claiming the peak hasn't happened in our state yet.

[thebreakfastclub]

I think blocking someone is without purpose, because you won't see what they wrote and you're going to wonder what they wrote, lol.

I'd rather just be snarky back. She's not harassing anyone, she's just a dummy. I marvel at her complete lack of self awareness, coming back into these types of threads after the initial flu drama.

[sdlaura]

ssmjlm I though the Virginia governor had thrown out some random June date before? June 10th?

[ssmjlm]

Apr 15, 2020 15:43:50 GMT -5 sdlaura said:

ssmjlm I though the Virginia governor had thrown out some random June date before? June 10th?

June 10th is the stay home order date.

[InBetweenDays]

Apr 15, 2020 13:11:11 GMT -5 nicolewi said:

I completely disagree with covergirl about vaccinations, but blocking someone bc her views are different feels very icky to me. I think we are all smart enough to make our own decisions re: vax and wouldn't just follow blindly what someone says on this board. I don't understand some of the outright hostility. I mean, yeah, we do all the shots in this family..I believe strongly in them...but we don't all have to have the exact same views in order to post together on a chat board. It is good for us to have some diversity of opinions or this would get pretty boring. She's not saying anything that is purposely hostile to anyone else.

I agree that differing of opinions is a good thing. But I also feel that comparing the risks of this virus to the risks of running errands in your car, or comparing this virus to the flu, goes well beyond a simple difference of opinions.

I also think the hostility stems from the fact that she has no interest in engaging in dialogue or debate. She has a track record of posting things like this just to be inflammatory and never coming back to explain or defend her position.

[sdlaura]

Apr 15, 2020 15:51:48 GMT -5 ssmjlm said:

Apr 15, 2020 15:43:50 GMT -5 sdlaura said:

ssmjlm I though the Virginia governor had thrown out some random June date before? June 10th?

June 10th is the stay home order date.

Sorry, but what’s the difference between non essential and stay at home?

[ssmjlm]

Apr 15, 2020 16:36:32 GMT -5 sdlaura said:

Apr 15, 2020 15:51:48 GMT -5 ssmjlm said:

June 10th is the stay home order date.

Sorry, but what’s the difference between non essential and stay at home?

I guess it’s limiting businesses like hairdressers and retail maybe? Or even some food places that have closed?

I’m not completely sure since we’re just under a stay home, not a SIP, so you can travel fairly freely.

[sillygoosegirl]

Apr 15, 2020 17:19:40 GMT -5 ssmjlm said:

Apr 15, 2020 16:36:32 GMT -5 sdlaura said:

Sorry, but what’s the difference between non essential and stay at home?

I guess it’s limiting businesses like hairdressers and retail maybe? Or even some food places that have closed?

I’m not completely sure since we’re just under a stay home, not a SIP, so you can travel fairly freely.

My understanding is that a non-essential business closure would prevent even work that could be done with social distancing, but isn't considered necessary for safety or essential infrastructure. Like landscaping or real estate or bookstores. Our state has a stay at home order, but you can still go to non-essential businesses provided people can conduct said business without getting within 6 ft of others, so hairdressing is disallowed, but landscaping is fine.