Post by Velar Fricative on Oct 31, 2020 6:59:08 GMT -5
This will differ from place to place, but I cannot imagine another lockdown here. I really don’t believe businesses are the problem anymore. Or even schools. It’s people having gatherings and parties, mostly in private homes (though some at party venues, which should be shut down temporarily again). Many other countries dictate far lower maximums in terms of guests you can have, which wouldn’t be taken too kindly here. So then what? People are irresponsible and can’t be trusted to do the right thing, as we’ve learned. What would help considerably are strong recommendations for people to wear masks when you have guests or are in someone else’s home but..good luck with that.
Well, as would happen in normal times, sore throat is 95% gone. So yeah, it was just intubation. Such abnormal times we are in that every tickle makes you wonder.
Post by chickadee77 on Oct 31, 2020 9:38:21 GMT -5
Yeah, in FL I think they've just thrown up their hands and said, "Welp. Every man for himself." Absolutely no talk of "rolling back" or putting restrictions back in place. Should get cute with the snowbirds coming down.
Yeah, in FL I think they've just thrown up their hands and said, "Welp. Every man for himself." Absolutely no talk of "rolling back" or putting restrictions back in place. Should get cute with the snowbirds coming down.
FL barely shut anything down to begin with. I do think we are generally more knowledgeable now than we were in March, and have a better idea of how to mitigate risks to keep more things open now. I am NOT saying we should just throw our hands up and say “fuck it, we’re all gonna get it anyway, might as well go back to normal” like a lot of other people in my area.
I am VERY worried about the holidays. I think large indoor family gatherings are going to be huge spreaders.
Post by mrsukyankee on Oct 31, 2020 11:37:35 GMT -5
"Someone" in the gov't leaked the fact that England will most likely go into a month long lockdown, which would include shutting down everything except essential shops, education but allow take-away from restaurants/bars. We may even, shockingly, require masks this time, even for being outside (which we haven't done). My guess is that it was Cummings who leaked it to see how the country responded. Most of us are pissed off because they didn't listen to the scientists who recommended a two week lockdown two weeks ago and things have gotten worse in those 2 weeks.
Why did it start getting so bad again? Weather? Asshole human behavior? Something with the virus itself?
My own personal theories:
1) Pandemic fatigue. Enough said.
2) Parties. People postponed parties from the spring to the fall and while people I know personally pushed them back again to next year, a lot of people stuck with fall parties. Watch out for the holidays. We do many activities, all of which require masks, distancing, etc. Parties are a whole different beast - no one wants to mask up or be distanced at a party. I saw pictures of a recent wedding on my FB feed and they had a basket of masks for guests...barely looked touched and the rest of the pictures were people with drinks in their hands practically sitting on each other’s laps, so.
3) Weather. People are back to spending more time indoors. Even outside, the virus travels a little further in colder, less humid weather. BUT, this doesn’t explain why places in the south are increasing so badly too. I figured their summers would remain in worse because now it’s more pleasant to be outside in the south but...nope. So it’s probably #1 and #2 for them.
We have very high mask compliance and distancing here and our cases are increasing too (to like, 2% positivity but still). NYC still only has 25%-capacity indoor dining, and nothing that could cause large indoor gatherings is open. @@schools are open, but with strict capacity restrictions and masks. It just has to be because of private gatherings and then subsequent household spread if only one person attended a gathering and ends up positive.
I know it’s every Trump supporter’s favorite (socialist!!!) example, but Sweden didn’t see lower than expected numbers because they did nothing. They did some things, including arguably the most important thing - banning large groups. They probably would have seen better numbers if they mandated masks too to go along with the cluster-busting.
Why did it start getting so bad again? Weather? Asshole human behavior? Something with the virus itself?
My own personal theories:
1) Pandemic fatigue. Enough said.
2) Parties. People postponed parties from the spring to the fall and while people I know personally pushed them back again to next year, a lot of people stuck with fall parties. Watch out for the holidays. We do many activities, all of which require masks, distancing, etc. Parties are a whole different beast - no one wants to mask up or be distanced at a party. I saw pictures of a recent wedding on my FB feed and they had a basket of masks for guests...barely looked touched and the rest of the pictures were people with drinks in their hands practically sitting on each other’s laps, so.
3) Weather. People are back to spending more time indoors. Even outside, the virus travels a little further in colder, less humid weather. BUT, this doesn’t explain why places in the south are increasing so badly too. I figured their summers would remain in worse because now it’s more pleasant to be outside in the south but...nope. So it’s probably #1 and #2 for them.
We have very high mask compliance and distancing here and our cases are increasing too (to like, 2% positivity but still). NYC still only has 25%-capacity indoor dining, and nothing that could cause large indoor gatherings is open. @@schools are open, but with strict capacity restrictions and masks. It just has to be because of private gatherings and then subsequent household spread if only one person attended a gathering and ends up positive.
I know it’s every Trump supporter’s favorite (socialist!!!) example, but Sweden didn’t see lower than expected numbers because they did nothing. They did some things, including arguably the most important thing - banning large groups. They probably would have seen better numbers if they mandated masks too to go along with the cluster-busting.
I agree with all this, but I also think it took a while to hit rural areas, which made those areas more prone to believe the hoax stuff and less likely to follow restrictions in the first place.
Around here, we measure case rates per 10,000 people. Rural MN is doing FAR worse on that metric than the twin cities area. Not that the twin cities are doing well... And it's really hard to explain per capita to people that don't want to believe it.
For example - my home county is about 50,000 people. The one I live in now is about 430,000. People in the county with 50,000 people see their daily cases at 25 and think that's really low compared to my county at 125, despite my county having almost 10x more people but only 5x more cases.
Why did it start getting so bad again? Weather? Asshole human behavior? Something with the virus itself?
Sort of @
I think schools opening is part of the problem. Even where it doesn't seem to be spreading in schools, having that part of your routine be somewhat normal makes it easier to start doing other normal things/fall back into normal routines. It's hard to feel like you have to always stay home if members of your household are going out every day.
Why did it start getting so bad again? Weather? Asshole human behavior? Something with the virus itself?
A combination as others have pointed out. It’s a respiratory virus, with a several day to week plus incubation period so in general it’s very hard to contain. The areas that have truly gotten to near zero cases have taken extreme measures that would never happen here. I’m honestly wondering what their long term strategies are since this is a world wide problem that’s going to be around for a couple more years in regards to getting vaccines and here immunity.
Outside of that, yes weather and more people gathering together. It’s not all asshole behavior, but people going to stores, etc as well. It’s certainly unfortunate timing that many places are getting colder while the fatigue of isolation is really setting in for many.
Post by wanderingback on Oct 31, 2020 18:49:23 GMT -5
The COVID vaccine trial lady called me and left a message on Friday. From my understanding the trial has resumed and the fda here didn’t find a link between the 2 adverse events and the vaccine so they said it could restart.
So I’ll call her back on Monday and I presume I’ll be scheduled yet again for the vaccine trial. So maybe 3rd time is a charm and I’ll actually be in the study this time.
Our state technically slid back to a partial lockdown (closing indoor dining only, which makes little sense while gyms are open and people can have 25-person indoor meetings). In my purple area of the blue state, 90% of the restaurants are openly defying it, and all officials are saying they won’t enforce it. I did takeout tonight, and seven families were eating inside. I don’t think another lockdown is going to happen unless it’s a total lockdown or a national lockdown because nobody is listening or enforcing. We are a blue state, so I can’t even imagine how red states would handle a lockdown. I am really worried about how bad this is going to get.
I'm pretty sure we're in the same state.
Multiple restaurant owners in this area are refusing to close indoor dining and several have hired lawyers who are saying the governor doesn't have the power to do this based on the court case he lost last spring.
I have to say I do somewhat understand because a lot of these smaller restaurants really need the business and who is going to do outdoor dining as it keeps getting colder and colder. We had a week straight of rain and 40-50 degree temps and so many restaurants here only ever had some picnic tables outside as their outdoor dining. Plus I can't blame them for being annoyed when gyms can keep going.
Why did it start getting so bad again? Weather? Asshole human behavior? Something with the virus itself?
Sort of @
I think schools opening is part of the problem. Even where it doesn't seem to be spreading in schools, having that part of your routine be somewhat normal makes it easier to start doing other normal things/fall back into normal routines. It's hard to feel like you have to always stay home if members of your household are going out every day.
I agree. So many people in my area are: schools are open, let’s do parties, indoor sports, pretty much everything. I want to say that isn’t how it works. Like yes schools are open but if you want them to stay open you need to be cautious in other ways too.
I think schools opening is part of the problem. Even where it doesn't seem to be spreading in schools, having that part of your routine be somewhat normal makes it easier to start doing other normal things/fall back into normal routines. It's hard to feel like you have to always stay home if members of your household are going out every day.
I agree. So many people in my area are: schools are open, let’s do parties, indoor sports, pretty much everything. I want to say that isn’t how it works. Like yes schools are open but if you want them to stay open you need to be cautious in other ways too.
@@@@@
Yes, and also lots of sports have started. Kids and parents have a false sense of security and do the sweet sixteens and Halloween parties (I anticipate cases will go up this week, because I know many of my students aren’t wearing masks. They’ve joked in class they hope someone gets COVID so they don’t have to put on pants in the morning).
I think this is where miserable summers and fog help. Since it can easily be 60 degrees and very windy at lunch time in July/August, anywhere that does outdoor seating here has to install outdoor space heaters.
Boris Johnson announced last night that England is going into a 4 week lockdown starting on Thursday, dependent on Parliament voting it in. All restaurants, bars, gyms, hairdressers/beauty salons and non-vital shops will be closed. You can get takeout from restaurants or bars. Kids will still be in school (which I think is a mistake). People are being asked to work from home if they can. www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/johnsons-u-turn-puts-country-under-tough-new-lockdown
People are angry and scared. Some are angry about the choices that the UK has taken which has brought us here, some are angry because they don't believe in the news that it's that bad, some are scared because they are losing their jobs or are going to have to shelter in place again. Ugh. (My MIL was angry when we told her last week that she wasn't going to be able to go shopping any longer because numbers were going up...at least now we have backing from the gov't with this news).
Interestingly enough, the lockdown is starting on 5 Nov, which is Guy Fawkes night. Wondering how many people will be burning BJ in effigy instead of Guy Fawkes?
Boris Johnson announced last night that England is going into a 4 week lockdown starting on Thursday, dependent on Parliament voting it in. All restaurants, bars, gyms, hairdressers/beauty salons and non-vital shops will be closed. You can get takeout from restaurants or bars. Kids will still be in school (which I think is a mistake). People are being asked to work from home if they can.
I wonder what compliance will be like? For the first shut down, we were all confused and scared. Now people have pandemic fatigue. How does the UK go about enforcing limits on private households gathering? I speculate that’s how it was spreading here in CA over the summer since masks compliance and social distancing is pretty high out in public.
I really don't think (sort of @) schools are causing the issues or even shopping in stores, eating at a restaurant, or anything else you do while staying distanced and masked. I think the issues are straight up denial, "we need to get back to living", and soooo many parties. In the beginning people really were fairly compliant about no indoor gatherings. Now based on the number of parties and weddings I see on FB they are definitely not. Everyone is cramming themselves indoors like sardines with no mask in sight. This is hard because there is really no way to stop these.
I think in some places you are also seeing the effects of multiple generations living together and not having access to great health care. The rural communities mostly seem to not have mask mandates and they don't have as many resources as big cities so I'm not surprised it's blowing up there. Of course a big problem I don't think we have talked about yet is so many live paycheck to paycheck. There is no help anymore and no help coming. People are back to going to work sick because what other choice do they have? It's a mess. Lots of reasons why it's getting bad again but none with an easy fix.
Post by SusanBAnthony on Nov 1, 2020 8:34:25 GMT -5
My stupid SIL had a Halloween party and posted pics which showed 16 people from at least 4 households not wearing masks and in very close contact.
H is on the phone with MIL now and she is pissed but as usual she won't do a damn thing other than complain (ie won't actually stop seeing SIL's household).
So yah I am guessing cases will continue to spike.
Please stop saying schools are ok. College students have died since reopening. Teachers in their 20s have died since reopening. It’s kind of Trumpian (virtually no one gets it).
Post by 5kcandlesinthewind on Nov 1, 2020 8:36:12 GMT -5
My brother tested positive this week. It’s been a minor case so far, but I am very worried about my SIL, who has both asthma and high blood pressure. She wasn’t able to get in for a rapid test but should hear today or tomorrow. I hadn’t seen them for months- since February- but then my dad was hospitalized and passed away early in October, so we’ve been together a lot between hospital visits, the funeral, and dealing with logistics.
@@@ So I took my family on fun trip to the drive up test site on Friday, which was 13 days since my last close contact with him and 16 days for my H and son. My husband and I came back negative, thankfully, and I have to fill out some other paperwork to get my son’s results added to the portal, but it seems unlikely he’d be positive.. @@@
And then last night was full on fucking Halloween here. I was furious. Cases have increased dramatically in MA, but people DGAF because, you know, you’ve gotta live your life! Such selfish bullshit- people are literally dying, but sure! Have a fucking party because you’re bored.. It just feels as though we are never getting out of this.
Post by Velar Fricative on Nov 1, 2020 8:44:05 GMT -5
I feel like somehow people think parties at home are safer than ToTing. I think it goes along with letting your guard down with people you know versus people you don’t. But I wasn’t near anyone I didn’t know while walking around. Everything was super safe. So that’s why I think private gatherings are the reason for our increases. People somehow don’t think they can catch covid from someone they know.
Please stop saying schools are ok. College students have died since reopening. Teachers in their 20s have died since reopening. It’s kind of Trumpian (virtually no one gets it).
@@@ I didn’t say they are ok. Colleges are absolutely not ok. High schools aren’t great either mostly because of sports. Every breakout here leads back to football or volleyball and we will see the same with the next sport. Elementary schools aren’t having the same issues because there are no extracurricular activities. Masks seem to be working. There may be an isolated case but no spread in schools. My point was the huge breakouts are happening from all the unmasked events happening. There is risk elsewhere obviously but I don’t think schools are the big cause. That’s all.
I really don't think (sort of @) schools are causing the issues or even shopping in stores, eating at a restaurant, or anything else you do while staying distanced and masked. I think the issues are straight up denial, "we need to get back to living", and soooo many parties. In the beginning people really were fairly compliant about no indoor gatherings. Now based on the number of parties and weddings I see on FB they are definitely not. Everyone is cramming themselves indoors like sardines with no mask in sight. This is hard because there is really no way to stop these.
This is what I suspect. The idea that it's spreading through things like going to stores where you and everyone else wears a mask is freaking me out, but I really don't see how that would be a main method of spread unless there is something science is missing or not telling us about how this spreads.
My BFF, if you talk to her, thinks she's being super careful. But she's seeing several different friends every week and not distancing and mask wearing when she's with them. She sees close friends indoors, has spent a weekend at their houses, etc. She is like "oh, I don't see anyone who isn't being super careful!". But I don't think it's connecting for her that seeing a whole bunch of people, even if they all wash hands/wear masks when they shop and don't throw parties, means they are all NOT being super careful. I have a feeling a lot of people are like her - they think they are doing everything right, but they are trusting that people they know personally are "safe". I think it's a false sense of security. It just takes one weak link in the chain to break the whole thing.