SCOTUS rage (@)

[pixy0stix]

I need to sit and cry for a bit.

[bronxgirl]

Thanks for the info, wanderingback. I'm so glad you weighed in and grateful for the work you do every day.

I'm having a hard time putting my thoughts into words because my thoughts keep getting interrupted by an internal monologue of FUUUCK!! As others have said, I feel physically sick/ anxious/ dysregulated. And angry. So very, very angry.

[biscoffcookies]

I knew this was coming after the arguments. But it’s still a gut punch.

And it’s not the end. Under this opinion same sex marriage/intimacy is up for reversal because it’s not “deeply rooted” in American traditions and the 1868 meaning of “liberty.” Access to birth control isn’t a right under the same theory. And more.

They won’t stop. This will just embolden them. And I feel so much despair because with the extreme gerrymandering at the state and federal level in so many states, voter suppression laws, and the structural advantages that the GOP has in the Senate and Electoral College and thr packed judiciary…I don’t see a way out.

[pumpkin]

Thanks for the info, wanderingback, and thank you for the work you do.

This is the 1st time ever that a draft decision has been leaked. I want more info on this too.

[mouse]

May 2, 2022 21:06:06 GMT -5 carmenere said:

May 2, 2022 20:55:05 GMT -5 mouse said:

Or to make any changes seem like a compromise. That’s more or less what they’ve done all along - positioning each decision chipping away at rights but still “preserving Roe.”

Until now they’re not. And the positioning will be that individual states can still have abortion care/people can travel for care. Until they attack that as well.

Are you suggesting that a justice or someone acting under official direction intentionally released it for that reason?

No, leaks are not official by design. I’m saying there’s a pattern in how they position this issue and if I was going to release an opinion opposed by the majority of Americans, that’s how I would do it. The last abortion decision had many immediate reactions of along it could have been so much worse, that kind of buried how deeply awful it was.

[seeyalater52]

May 2, 2022 21:32:16 GMT -5 mouse said:

May 2, 2022 21:06:06 GMT -5 carmenere said:

Are you suggesting that a justice or someone acting under official direction intentionally released it for that reason?

No, leaks are not official by design. I’m saying there’s a pattern in how they position this issue and if I was going to release an opinion opposed by the majority of Americans, that’s how I would do it. The last abortion decision had many immediate reactions of along it could have been so much worse, that kind of buried how deeply awful it was.

If I had to guess I’d say more likely that this is some kind of last-ditch effort of a terrified clerk not some politically calculated trial balloon.

[thedutchgirl]

I have a lot of thoughts about this, as someone who speaks and writes about the Supreme Court.

First, I am shocked and appalled at the leak. This has never happened in modern history. My colleague who clerked for Scalia says that if was an employee they’ll be fired. If it was a Justice, they should resign or be impeached. I totally agree. I just cannot believe this.

Second, while cold comfort, so much happens between an inflammatory first draft and the final that would come out in late June. Internal politicking and lobbying. Justice Roberts trying to keep people in line. Votes changing. Drafts scrapped or revised. If this is real, it’s not at all final. The outcome doesn’t shock me after arguments but the reasoning and breadth would be very unlikely to look anything like this.

[wanderingback]

May 2, 2022 21:15:54 GMT -5 mouse said:

May 2, 2022 20:54:27 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

I do not want to argue or go in to too many details but "being an established group" does not mean someone is worthy of donations. There are a lot of shitty established groups out there...and they've gotten us in to this mess to be honest, when a lot of grassroots organizations and reproductive justice organizations were saying to do that exact opposite of what they have been saying/doing. Remember the motto "safe, legal and rare" in regards to abortion. That was a hot mess and people on the ground were against that slogan because it's all sorts of fucked up. 

The "established groups" (planned parenthood, naral - has been a hot mess also, etc) get all the money from "anonymous" donors (aka super duper rich white millionaires and billionaires) while smaller groups who are doing the on the ground work get pennies. 

Right now people need funds and support to get abortions, point blank. 

Anyway, another well established group that I would highly recommend is If/When/How. They have a legal fund for anyone who is imprisoned for self-managing an abortion. https://www.ifwhenhow.org 

I 100% agree that PP and NARAL have been hot messes on the wrong side of history. They abandoned minority and poor women who needed them most. They’re not perfect, but they’re taking a lot of steps to address that history and make sure what happens going forward is different.

I obviously know my local area better, but within Oregon, years of political pressure and lobbying mean that we’ve guaranteed the right to abortion care in our constitution and required that insurance cover it 100%. That’s building relationships with politicians, canvassing for them, lobbying (both paid and volunteer), as well as building coalition partnerships with workers groups, immigration groups, unions, minority-led groups, students, etc. It’s very different than getting care on the ground, but I think we have to find a way to make noise and not let this keep getting pushed to the back burner so long as a politician is willing to mumbles something about “between a woman and her doctor.” We need to create a space for the conversation to be so much bigger than that.

I’m sorry, I don’t really want to argue either. But it’s actually really helping me process this blow to think through this. I’m just sitting here stunned, and Mr M keeps saying “can I do anything?” at me. So what I’m trying to say is, if you have room for a conversation, I would really welcome it but I understand if you don’t. I would sincerely love to hear your thoughts on the kinds of political pressure you’d like to see brought in.

To clarify, I did not say anything about being against political pressure and lobbying.
I was just pointing out that "established groups" aka historically white lead organizations don't always mean better and you specifically named NARAL, which I think is a problematic organization in general, especially after they switched their model (last year or the year before) and didn't listen to local NARAL chapters.

I am not a politician, nor do I work specifically in politics, so whenever I'm interviewed I do not make political statements and always come from my angle of advocacy and getting people the care they need. So to once again clarify I was not saying that people shouldn't be thinking of specific political and legislative actions. I was just saying that "established groups" aren't necessarily the best and at this very moment of crisis right this second clinics and abortion funds need support so that people can get abortions. Abortions are going to continue regardless of what the law says, so that is what my focus is on.

[isabel]

I don’t even know what to say at this point, but I am watching closely. And donating, because I don’t know what else to do.

[seeyalater52]

How many fucks do I give about the unprecedented leak and “this isn’t how things are done”?

Zero.
Negative twenty four.
Negative one hundred million.
Negative infinity.
Not a single solitary fuck.

Literally the lives of pregnant people and civil rights and wellbeing are on the line here. This is whistleblowing of the highest order. That this was written means there is a chance this could be the decision. This is not an academic exercise this is our freedoms and human rights. I refuse to accept that neutrality is possible.

[jd15]

May 2, 2022 21:46:22 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

How many fucks do I give about the unprecedented leak and “this isn’t how things are done”?

Zero.
Negative twenty four.
Negative one hundred million.
Negative infinity.
Not a single solitary fuck.

Literally the lives of pregnant people and civil rights and wellbeing are on the line here. This is whistleblowing of the highest order. That this was written means there is a chance this could be the decision. This is not an academic exercise this is our freedoms and human rights. I refuse to accept that neutrality is possible.

So much this.

I feel like we are (and have been) on an unprecedented elevator to a special kind of hell for a while now. All this hand wringing over “this isn’t how things are done!” Apparently it is now. What’s to stop it? Tonight I’ll be in the corner rocking and crying and screaming because FUCK.

[taratru]

The 2016 election is going to be referenced in history books as the turn toward the end of the democratic experiment, isn't it?

God, I want to scream.

[pinkdutchtulips]

May 2, 2022 21:38:44 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

They’ll go after Griswold and Oberfell next. Michigans GOP nominee for state AG already said that Griswold was wrong and it should be up to the states. 2016 was the most important election.

In the pit of my stomach my fear is that if Roe goes, Griswold won’t be too far behind … Christian Taliban in full force stripping women of any kind of autonomy.

[basilosaurus]

May 3, 2022 0:15:19 GMT -5 pinkdutchtulips said:

May 2, 2022 21:38:44 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

They’ll go after Griswold and Oberfell next. Michigans GOP nominee for state AG already said that Griswold was wrong and it should be up to the states. 2016 was the most important election.

In the pit of my stomach my fear is that if Roe goes, Griswold won’t be too far behind … Christian Taliban in full force stripping women of any kind of autonomy.

I think often about how my mom was a college student pre-griswold and was married shortly after. I wonder what her experiences were like. I know where she lived was the last state to legalize birth control if unmarried and only when forced by scotus.

Fuck the talibangelists. 

[neverfstop]

FUCK. When do we expect the official announcement?

Maybe this will be a driving issue to be the focal point of our elections. It is a winning issue for Dems generally and we're getting hammered on the economy. Make every republican up and down the ballot defend this bullshit and talk about it nonstop.

[mrsukyankee]

I'm super scared for y'all. And I know that if this happens, it will embolden so many other countries to move back in that direction (I see you Ireland). Our conservative Christians are hoping for this sort of response. Ugh.

[timorousbeastie]

May 2, 2022 21:38:44 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

They’ll go after Griswold and Oberfell next. Michigans GOP nominee for state AG already said that Griswold was wrong and it should be up to the states. 2016 was the most important election.

He is also on record as saying that if elected, he will enforce MI’s law of prosecuting women for having an abortion, even if the abortion was performed to save her life.

[imimahoney]

May 3, 2022 5:41:43 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

FUCK. When do we expect the official announcement?

Maybe this will be a driving issue to be the focal point of our elections. It is a winning issue for Dems generally and we're getting hammered on the economy. Make every republican up and down the ballot defend this bullshit and talk about it nonstop.

Decisions are released the end of June, the more controversial the case, usually the later the announcement.

The leaked decision will likely not be what is released to the public but still terrifying.

[carmenere]

May 2, 2022 21:36:15 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

May 2, 2022 21:32:16 GMT -5 mouse said:

No, leaks are not official by design. I’m saying there’s a pattern in how they position this issue and if I was going to release an opinion opposed by the majority of Americans, that’s how I would do it. The last abortion decision had many immediate reactions of along it could have been so much worse, that kind of buried how deeply awful it was.

If I had to guess I’d say more likely that this is some kind of last-ditch effort of a terrified clerk not some politically calculated trial balloon.

Yeah. That’s just not how the justices operate. The pattern of chipping away abortion rights but preserving Roe was never any kind of compromise - it was red states doing everything in their limited power to restrict access. But SCOTUS doesn’t (and IMO shouldn’t) play that kind of politics.

Regardless of how it got released, I hope it motivates huge voter turnout for every election and more grassroots organizing. That’s the only way we will ever turn this thing around. And even then it will take a decade but it’s not forever hopeless.

[Velar Fricative]

I know we expect this to galvanize women, but remember that white women voted for Trump both times. Those women who have always been voting for reproductive rights have stayed galvanized.

Pessimist, party of one.

[Bad Dingo]

May 2, 2022 21:37:28 GMT -5 thedutchgirl said:

I have a lot of thoughts about this, as someone who speaks and writes about the Supreme Court.

First, I am shocked and appalled at the leak. This has never happened in modern history. My colleague who clerked for Scalia says that if was an employee they’ll be fired. If it was a Justice, they should resign or be impeached. I totally agree. I just cannot believe this.

Second, while cold comfort, so much happens between an inflammatory first draft and the final that would come out in late June. Internal politicking and lobbying. Justice Roberts trying to keep people in line. Votes changing. Drafts scrapped or revised. If this is real, it’s not at all final. The outcome doesn’t shock me after arguments but the reasoning and breadth would be very unlikely to look anything like this.

Are you saying that you think they'd change the reasoning from - the constitution is silent on abortion so that's why states should decide - to something else?

I'm honestly fine w/the leak.  The last 3 Justices got their jobs because of deceit, manipulation, and dark money by/from the Republican party.  People need to wake up and see clearly what their goals are.

[carmenere]

May 3, 2022 6:34:49 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

I know we expect this to galvanize women, but remember that white women voted for Trump both times. Those women who have always been voting for reproductive rights have stayed galvanized.

Pessimist, party of one.

The promise of overturning Roe has been an incredibly effective wedge issue for years, especially for white women - for many that was the reason they held their nose and voted for Trump. So I wonder what their political engagement will look like without that wedge and whether they’ll still be as motivated to turn out. I won’t go as far as to call it a silver lining, but maybe a sliver of hope for taking back our democracy.

[biscoffcookies]

May 3, 2022 6:58:03 GMT -5 carmenere said:

May 3, 2022 6:34:49 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

I know we expect this to galvanize women, but remember that white women voted for Trump both times. Those women who have always been voting for reproductive rights have stayed galvanized.

Pessimist, party of one.

The promise of overturning Roe has been an incredibly effective wedge issue for years, especially for white women - for many that was the reason they held their nose and voted for Trump. So I wonder what their political engagement will look like without that wedge and whether they’ll still be as motivated to turn out. I won’t go as far as to call it a silver lining, but maybe a sliver of hope for taking back our democracy.

I am pessimistic. I feel like even once they get what they want re: Roe the issue will now become “you have to turn out/vote GOP to prevent the Dems from taking our victory!” and then also “it’s not enough that Roe has been overturned — we need to win to outlaw it in states and at the National level.”

I don’t see this as any sort of end to their motivation.

[eddy]

What are our thoughts on acquiring  mail order abortion pills to keep for future use? I am not concerned with about myself, but is it a small way that could help someone else? Or is this so small scale it isn’t even worth it?

I am aware of the usual ways to fight back. Organize, donate etc. But what else can we do?

[cous0226]

Is there anything congress can do right now and do we have the votes?

Analysts referenced congress last night but it wasn’t explained well. Also what happens if R’s take both house and senate? Can they forbid in all states?

[seeyalater52]

May 3, 2022 6:58:03 GMT -5 carmenere said:

May 3, 2022 6:34:49 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

I know we expect this to galvanize women, but remember that white women voted for Trump both times. Those women who have always been voting for reproductive rights have stayed galvanized.

Pessimist, party of one.

The promise of overturning Roe has been an incredibly effective wedge issue for years, especially for white women - for many that was the reason they held their nose and voted for Trump. So I wonder what their political engagement will look like without that wedge and whether they’ll still be as motivated to turn out. I won’t go as far as to call it a silver lining, but maybe a sliver of hope for taking back our democracy.

Uh, what? Their energy will continue to be on the other wedge issues they’re fighting and winning. Same sex marriage (yes, still.) Invalidating families that look like mine. Book banning and CRT. Harassing trans kids and their parents. Rolling back nondiscrimination protections. Making birth control less accessible. Preventing legal immigration and punishing undocumented people. Waging war on safety net social programs. Attacking voting rights.

We have seen these issues motivate electoral behavior just as much (and in recent years arguably moreso) as abortion. A lot of them are bread and butter white conservative women bait issues. They are not going to be stumped on their next steps, they are going to be energized by the reality that precedent is no longer precedent and a lot of civil rights issues that have been “decided” by SCOTUS are up for grabs and those that haven’t are even more vulnerable with a Court they control.

It must be nice to have the kind of privilege that could see any kind of sliver of hope in this.

[underwaterrhymes]

May 3, 2022 6:58:03 GMT -5 carmenere said:

May 3, 2022 6:34:49 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

I know we expect this to galvanize women, but remember that white women voted for Trump both times. Those women who have always been voting for reproductive rights have stayed galvanized.

Pessimist, party of one.

The promise of overturning Roe has been an incredibly effective wedge issue for years, especially for white women - for many that was the reason they held their nose and voted for Trump. So I wonder what their political engagement will look like without that wedge and whether they’ll still be as motivated to turn out. I won’t go as far as to call it a silver lining, but maybe a sliver of hope for taking back our democracy.

No.

They’re coming for birth control, marriage equality, and Brown vs the Board of Education next. This is just the beginning.

[5kcandlesinthewind]

Agreed, seeyalater52 . All of the "but it's a draft" handwringing is just nonsense.  It's happening, and it's more than likely just the damn beginning. So the question is what are Democrats going to do about it? I mean, they should have done something (ANYTHING) goddamn months ago, but we have a president who is apparently incapable of saying the word abortion and we're being held hostage by fucking Manchin and Sinema, so I guess the plan is just to continue to do nothing and be all out of ideas. COOL!

Also, once again, Elie Mystal says everything I'm feeling here. Fuck all of this.

wanderingback , thank you for everything you do. I can't imagine what it feels like to be a provider today (and every day, honestly), so thank you.

[btdt]

May 2, 2022 20:21:28 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Anyone who didn’t vote in 2016 or who voted for Trump can go fuck themselves.

Anyone who DIDN'T vote for HRC in 2016 can go fuck themselves. Bitch McConnell can go fuck himself. 

[neverfstop]

Axios has a graphic on what will happen if/when the decision is announces- instantly illegal in 13 states.
www.axios.com/roe-v-wade-repeal-supreme-court-texas-mississippi-fbf18076-8b9b-4243-bd8b-e75700671259.html

Where it stands: If the court were to ultimately overturn the precedents that established the constitutional right to an abortion, a patchwork of state laws would govern the procedure.

Wyoming is the 13th state to pass a a "trigger law" in place — an abortion ban that would kick in right away if the court completely overturns its precedents.
Four states — Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee and West Virginia —have even amended their constitutions to prohibit any protections for abortion rights.
Oklahoma state lawmakers passed a bill in late April that would modify the language of the trigger law to ban abortions if the court “overrules in whole or in part” Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey.
Several other states don't have trigger laws in place but would likely move quickly to ban or tightly restrict the procedure if the court clears the way: Florida, Indiana, Montana and Nebraska would be prime candidates, according to analysis from the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive rights research organization.
Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and South Carolina have all enacted restrictive laws that were then blocked by federal courts. They could try to revive those policies in a post-Roe world.