Hurricane Ian

[estrellita]

Hope everyone stays safe!

My H was supposed to go to Tampa Wed-Fri. They canceled and will reschedule. He did this same trip in 2018 and caught the outer edge of another hurricane. He also dealt with hurricanes when he worked in Tampa at a different job years ago. I told him he needs to stop going to Tampa in the fall 😂

[sju]

Sept 26, 2022 13:22:35 GMT -5 lessel said:

I feel like this storm is on a similar path (at least at the moment) to Hurricane Charley. 

It is. We are far inland but if Ian pulls a Charley surprise, we will be on it’s path. We know the flooding will be bad and it will take a very long time to recover; I just hope for no fatalities.   And my heart goes out to all those affected in Cuba. So sad.

MIL lives closer to the current forecasted path and in a wooden home (how are new communities still being built out of wood is beyond me).  She doesn’t want to come stay with us so we hope she stays safe. 

[maudefindlay]

My FIL and his girlfriend left his 2nd home in Longboat Key yesterday and are back at his other house up north. LBK is now under mandatory evacuation.

[lessel]

Sept 26, 2022 18:10:38 GMT -5 sju said:

Sept 26, 2022 13:22:35 GMT -5 lessel said:

I feel like this storm is on a similar path (at least at the moment) to Hurricane Charley. 

It is. We are far inland but if Ian pulls a Charley surprise, we will be on it’s path.

The more I thought about our experience during Charley, I remembered we actually evacuated directly into the path of the storm. We went to Orlando which ended up getting hit fairly hard when the storm shifted east. The tornadoes along East Orlando were pretty bad.

That was a crazy year because I feel like another one or two storms hit the Gulf coast that year.

[rubytue]

Sept 26, 2022 20:35:46 GMT -5 lessel said:

Sept 26, 2022 18:10:38 GMT -5 sju said:

It is. We are far inland but if Ian pulls a Charley surprise, we will be on it’s path.

The more I thought about our experience during Charley, I remembered we actually evacuated directly into the path of the storm. We went to Orlando which ended up getting hit fairly hard when the storm shifted east. The tornadoes along East Orlando were pretty bad.

That was a crazy year because I feel like another one or two storms hit the Gulf coast that year.

Yes! Right in a row, too. Or so it seemed, although charley and Ivan implies lots on between. But, we had a trip to the keys planned (which was a consultation trip from alaska bc I was in chemo). I was watching them so closely. We actually showed up in key largo the day the evacuation order was lifted (and got a crazy upgraded room because there was no one there). Young and dumb… today there is no way we would have flown down there that close. 

[chocolatepie]

I'm in St Pete, zone A. I have basically cried all day while packing up every family photo and priceless memento I could lay my hands on. Those are all in a safe place (or should be safe) on high dry land. The rest of our life may be 12 feet underwater in a couple days.

Mandatory evac for zone A got bumped to tonight but we are leaving for Orlando early tomorrow morning. There is no gas here so I don't want to be stranded in traffic. We are riding it out at Disney and will stay in touch with neighbors that are evacuating to friend's homes in non-flood zone areas.

[neverfstop]

Stay safe everybody - it is looking bad.

I hope the state and federal emergency response are already positioned and ready to respond. This will be an interesting contrast of how DeSantis will have to work with Biden/FEMA.

[pixy0stix]

FL perspective - the news keeps saying Tampa hasn't seen a storm of this magnitude in a 100 years, but everything I read from Floridians always says, "Well xyz didn't damage this, so we'll be fine." Is the news exaggerating? Or are Floridians comparing apples to oranges? Some of both?

I think there's an important note in the language in that the forecast isn't a "100 year storm" which is an order of magnitude. They're saying that literally within 100 years a storm of this magnitude hasn't hit the area. There's been nothing like it in strength that has hit in a century.

[abs]

Sept 27, 2022 9:42:45 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

FL perspective - the news keeps saying Tampa hasn't seen a storm of this magnitude in a 100 years, but everything I read from Floridians always says, "Well xyz didn't damage this, so we'll be fine." Is the news exaggerating? Or are Floridians comparing apples to oranges? Some of both?

I think there's an important note in the language in that the forecast isn't a "100 year storm" which is an order of magnitude. They're saying that literally within 100 years a storm of this magnitude hasn't hit the area. There's been nothing like it in strength that has hit in a century.

I think there is a lot of complacency with hurricanes (and probably all natural disasters?) in general.  I see it here in Houston, too.  "We didn't flood during Harvey so we will be fine."  "We didn't lose power during Ike so we will be fine."   I personally don't get that perspective.  That is called luck.  No storm is the same and you can't compare but people do.  There is a lot of work involved in preparing for hurricanes though and certain parts of Florida have had a lot of false alarms the last few years.  I do get that perspective but no I don't think the news is exaggerating.  I have family in Florida and they are absolutely preparing like it's going to be as bad as expected. 

[gardengal]

Sept 27, 2022 9:42:45 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

FL perspective - the news keeps saying Tampa hasn't seen a storm of this magnitude in a 100 years, but everything I read from Floridians always says, "Well xyz didn't damage this, so we'll be fine." Is the news exaggerating? Or are Floridians comparing apples to oranges? Some of both?

I think there's an important note in the language in that the forecast isn't a "100 year storm" which is an order of magnitude. They're saying that literally within 100 years a storm of this magnitude hasn't hit the area. There's been nothing like it in strength that has hit in a century.

I have family in the area & even the Trumpers are absolutely taking things seriously.

[ggirl]

Sept 27, 2022 9:42:45 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

FL perspective - the news keeps saying Tampa hasn't seen a storm of this magnitude in a 100 years, but everything I read from Floridians always says, "Well xyz didn't damage this, so we'll be fine." Is the news exaggerating? Or are Floridians comparing apples to oranges? Some of both?

I think there's an important note in the language in that the forecast isn't a "100 year storm" which is an order of magnitude. They're saying that literally within 100 years a storm of this magnitude hasn't hit the area. There's been nothing like it in strength that has hit in a century.

So much of this also depends on location of that person. For example when tropical storm ETA hit Pinellas- my house was fine. Totally ok. Places in the county though totally flooded. Just from the tropical storm.
When Irma was coming through- I lost power for a week. My sis got hers back in a day. We are 4 miles from each other. People are applying their own experience (which I get logically how that happens) but also still need to prepare.

Or stress eat cheez it’s like I’m doing right now.

[ggirl]

The newest NHC track has ticked it south towards Sarasota for landfall. If anyone follows denis Philips on fb- he’s my go to source and he’s live right now talking about it.

[heat40]

Sept 27, 2022 9:42:45 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

FL perspective - the news keeps saying Tampa hasn't seen a storm of this magnitude in a 100 years, but everything I read from Floridians always says, "Well xyz didn't damage this, so we'll be fine." Is the news exaggerating? Or are Floridians comparing apples to oranges? Some of both?

I think there's an important note in the language in that the forecast isn't a "100 year storm" which is an order of magnitude. They're saying that literally within 100 years a storm of this magnitude hasn't hit the area. There's been nothing like it in strength that has hit in a century.

I think Florida people in general have a lot of experience with hurricanes so we’re kind of lax on some things. The problem with Tampa is that, they have experience “from afar” as in knowing of family/friends who have gone though storms or they themselves from having lived at one time in another area that has gotten hit more. But Tampa itself hasn’t gotten a direct hit in about 100 years, so the infrastructure, homes, waterways etc. Are being tested for the first time. Also, it’s one thing to see from afar the damage of a storm and a whole other to take it on yourself. So in theory, they know what to expect or do but really won’t know until it actually happens.

[ggirl]

Also those people who are “ xyz was fine” forget there parts of the county that literally flood with a rain storm (looking at you shore acres and snell isle). These homes could be gone.

I’ve found while prepping for this that fear shamers are just as bad as fear mongers. Those who are all “I can’t believe water is gone already. Why is everyone panicking. I’ll panic when Jim cantore is here” etc etc.

[lessel]

Sept 27, 2022 10:36:46 GMT -5 heat40 said:

Sept 27, 2022 9:42:45 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

FL perspective - the news keeps saying Tampa hasn't seen a storm of this magnitude in a 100 years, but everything I read from Floridians always says, "Well xyz didn't damage this, so we'll be fine." Is the news exaggerating? Or are Floridians comparing apples to oranges? Some of both?

I think there's an important note in the language in that the forecast isn't a "100 year storm" which is an order of magnitude. They're saying that literally within 100 years a storm of this magnitude hasn't hit the area. There's been nothing like it in strength that has hit in a century.

I think Florida people in general have a lot of experience with hurricanes so we’re kind of lax on some things. The problem with Tampa is that, they have experience “from afar” as in knowing of family/friends who have gone though storms or they themselves from having lived at one time in another area that has gotten hit more. But Tampa itself hasn’t gotten a direct hit in about 100 years, so the infrastructure, homes, waterways etc. Are being tested for the first time. Also, it’s one thing to see from afar the damage of a storm and a whole other to take it on yourself. So in theory, they know what to expect or do but really won’t know until it actually happens.

Totally agree with this.

Also, unless something has improved drastically in Tampa in the last 15 years, the streets in South Tampa (from about Kennedy Blvd south) flood with a routine afternoon Florida thunderstorm. I remember regularly driving thorough 12+ inches of water on major roads after uneventful rains. We lived in a house on a corner lot and would watch cars drive through the stop sign with water up to the tops of their tires. Maybe there's been an infrastructure overhaul, but I really doubt that area can handle this amount of storm surge. 

[pixy0stix]

Sept 27, 2022 10:36:46 GMT -5 heat40 said:

Sept 27, 2022 9:42:45 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

FL perspective - the news keeps saying Tampa hasn't seen a storm of this magnitude in a 100 years, but everything I read from Floridians always says, "Well xyz didn't damage this, so we'll be fine." Is the news exaggerating? Or are Floridians comparing apples to oranges? Some of both?

I think there's an important note in the language in that the forecast isn't a "100 year storm" which is an order of magnitude. They're saying that literally within 100 years a storm of this magnitude hasn't hit the area. There's been nothing like it in strength that has hit in a century.

I think Florida people in general have a lot of experience with hurricanes so we’re kind of lax on some things. The problem with Tampa is that, they have experience “from afar” as in knowing of family/friends who have gone though storms or they themselves from having lived at one time in another area that has gotten hit more. But Tampa itself hasn’t gotten a direct hit in about 100 years, so the infrastructure, homes, waterways etc. Are being tested for the first time. Also, it’s one thing to see from afar the damage of a storm and a whole other to take it on yourself. So in theory, they know what to expect or do but really won’t know until it actually happens.

So a "they don't know what they don't know" situation.

Like Houston when it flooded. They had experience with storms, but they didn't know that development had obliterated all their flood protection, so everything went underwater.

[neverfstop]

Latest track has it shifting southward and Tampa avoiding a direct hit and being on the surge side. Going to possibly be a Cat 4.

[Velar Fricative]

Sept 27, 2022 16:25:20 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

Latest track has it shifting southward and Tampa avoiding a direct hit and being on the surge side. Going to possibly be a Cat 4.

On top of this, the NHC just pushed up the forecasted landfall time by a few hours, to Wednesday afternoon versus later in the evening/late night. Still thinking of everyone in its path.

[formerlyak]

Sept 27, 2022 16:25:20 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

Latest track has it shifting southward and Tampa avoiding a direct hit and being on the surge side. Going to possibly be a Cat 4.

California girl who knows nothing about hurricanes. Is surge side the “bad” side? Sounds like it but I really know nothing. I can tell you all about earthquakes though!

[Gato]

The issue with this storm is that it's going to park on top of Florida for two days, dumping huge amounts of rain when the ground is apparently already saturated. It's also enormous, unlike Charley, so it probably will be pushing in a large storm surge. And it's ALSO quite powerful, and it's spinning off tornadoes now. Basically, everything about this hurricane is the worst. My thoughts are with everyone in its path.

[pixy0stix]

Sept 27, 2022 17:15:57 GMT -5 formerlyak said:

Sept 27, 2022 16:25:20 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

Latest track has it shifting southward and Tampa avoiding a direct hit and being on the surge side. Going to possibly be a Cat 4.

California girl who knows nothing about hurricanes. Is surge side the “bad” side? Sounds like it but I really know nothing. I can tell you all about earthquakes though!

More than you ever wanted to know about storm surge, LOL! wapo.st/3DXginW

[Velar Fricative]

Seems like many people evacuated to places like Orlando that are now forecasted to be hit harder than previously expected.

Basically the cone of uncertainty covers so much of FL. I feel like I’d be frozen with indecision if I lived down there. Like, sure, I’d heed evacuation warnings and stuff but wtf would I go when the whole damn state is in the cone, airports are shutting down and I don’t have a ton of time to make it far??? So I feel for everyone down there who’s feeling stuck, or actually is stuck because I think we’ve all learned from prior disasters that not everyone is able to evacuate.

[lessel]

Sept 27, 2022 17:15:57 GMT -5 formerlyak said:

Sept 27, 2022 16:25:20 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

Latest track has it shifting southward and Tampa avoiding a direct hit and being on the surge side. Going to possibly be a Cat 4.

California girl who knows nothing about hurricanes. Is surge side the “bad” side? Sounds like it but I really know nothing. I can tell you all about earthquakes though!

If memory from my elementary school kid in Florida education is correct, the side of the storm (or really the time period/angle of the storm) where winds blow onshore in a direction that both rises the sea level and then blows water inland is what they’re talking about. Eastern sides of the storm tend to spawn more tornadoes I think? I’ve heard it called the “dirty” side of the storm in more recent years.

ETA: That Wash Post link is a much better explanation!

[formerlyak]

Sept 27, 2022 17:20:37 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Sept 27, 2022 17:15:57 GMT -5 formerlyak said:

California girl who knows nothing about hurricanes. Is surge side the “bad” side? Sounds like it but I really know nothing. I can tell you all about earthquakes though!

More than you ever wanted to know about storm surge, LOL! wapo.st/3DXginW

So surge is bad.

[ggirl]

Sept 27, 2022 17:26:01 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Seems like many people evacuated to places like Orlando that are now forecasted to be hit harder than previously expected.

Basically the cone of uncertainty covers so much of FL. I feel like I’d be frozen with indecision if I lived down there. Like, sure, I’d heed evacuation warnings and stuff but wtf would I go when the whole damn state is in the cone, airports are shutting down and I don’t have a ton of time to make it far??? So I feel for everyone down there who’s feeling stuck, or actually is stuck because I think we’ve all learned from prior disasters that not everyone is able to evacuate.

This is what happened during Irma. And there was no gas anywhere so you couldn’t take the chance of being stuck Middle of nowhere with a storm coming. Even now traffic was backed up earlier on i4 and i4 is a shit show on a good day. It’s also why it’s so hard for people who are in non evac zones to make the decision to leave. We would have gone to Orlando. And well. Orlando will be no better than my own home.

[rubytue]

Well, my ILs left the afternoon. Went to FLL.

Also, regards to some of the stuff above. It’s absolutely true that people take that past experience and those of trusted family and friends over warnings. I don’t have my citations handy, but I have a couple paragraphs that I drop in reports all the time about warning efficacy. For warning labels, it’s notice, read, heed. Heeding is one of the hardest parts, because “so and so was OK.” It can apply to hurricane and kitchen knives all the same. 

edit: so this link has some of the same stuff I’m thinking about. It just struck me as people were talking about not flooding during Harvey, etc just how similar the issues are. www.ismp.org/resources/your-attention-please-designing-effective-warnings-0

[AAM2012]

Ugh my dad is in N. Ft . Myers and this looks like Charlie 2.0 but with more warning on the change to the right.

He is prepared with hurricane windows, garage door, new roof but that doesn’t do much if a tornado hits and it looks like he’ll definitely be on the east-southeast side of the storm which is the worse.

Says it’s been raining since yesterday with some pretty strong feeder bands already earlier.

I’m glad it won’t be as bad for Tamp, although it’ll still be bad but so sad for those in the Ft. Myers/Pinta Gorda/Sarasota area who went through Charlie and now have to go through something similar again.

[curbsideprophet]

Stay safe everyone!

[Velar Fricative]

NYT is reporting that all of Cuba is without power.

[rachelgreen]

Praying for those in the path.

We rode out Irma at Disney back in 2017. We flew in nearly a week prior to the storm and it wasn’t ever supposed to come to Orlando but when the eye wall hit Disney, it was still packing a Cat 2 punch. We had to tack on extra days before the airport reopened and we could fly home but I will say, if anyone local is still able and has the means, Disney is the place to ride it out. I’ve never seen such preparation (like ratcheting down trees!) and if you’re at a deluxe, they cut the food prices and also allowed you to be in the common areas (unlike the hotels where doors go directly outside). Pets are also allowed for FL residents. They’re on their own power grid and the buildings are rated for cat 5 storms. There was minimal damage to Wilderness Lodge. I just wanted to chime in with this info in case anyone was still on the fence about evacuating to the area.