March Covid: lockdown anniversary edition

[NewOrleans]

Point 1: New research by Canadian scientists published in the Journal of Theoretical Biology suggests that rates for COVID-19 may be close to endemic levels.

Point 2: Dr. F. Perry Wilson, associate professor at the Yale School of Medicine… pointed out that there are still about 400 deaths per day from COVID-19 in the U.S., and if that’s the new normal, it’s concerning.  “To put that in context, in a pretty bad flu year, we'd see about 100 deaths a day, you know, something on the order of 35,000 to 40,000 deaths per year from flu,” he said. “So this is still four times higher than that. And if this does turn out to be the endemic rate of COVID-19, if this is what we're facing indefinitely into the future, it's actually a rather difficult situation.”

Point 3 (we’re apparently still saying this shit): Dr. Ulysses Wu, an infectious disease expert at Hartford Hospital, emphasized that it’s important to know whether the deaths are due to COVID-19, or a comorbidity that exacerbated another morbidity that resulted in death. 

www.ctpublic.org/news/2023-02-24/new-research-suggests-covid-19-is-now-endemic-physicians-push-back

[NewOrleans]

aaaand I just realized it’s still February. 😂 I’m ready for March, I guess. Oh well, this thread will be here when we need it.

[basilosaurus]

Feb 28, 2023 7:03:13 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

aaaand I just realized it’s still February. 😂 I’m ready for March, I guess. Oh well, this thread will be here when we need it.

This cracks me up. As someone who lives 13 hours ahead of est, I'm regularly wondering which day it is let alone which month. I wake up on Monday eagerly anticipating watching Sunday shows.

Re covid, yeah, that number of deaths this far in is quite concerning. Even on Asian airlines there was a distinct shift between my flights in the fall and flights this past month in masking and other precautions. Endemic seems the right word.

[erbear]

400 deaths a day?! I don't know how I missed that this was still the case. Yikes.

[fortnightlily]

I thought this was a thoughtful piece from earlier in Feb about getting the full picture of counting deaths right now: nyti.ms/3Z42QGy.

I believe bivalent booster uptake is still fairly low, considering, even among the most at-risk populations based on age, and that this is a factor in the number of daily deaths we're still seeing.

Hong Kong is lifting its mask mandates this week: www.npr.org/2023/02/28/1160003983/hong-kongs-government-says-it-will-lift-its-covid-mask-mandate-on-wednesday

[sonrisa]

Feb 28, 2023 11:27:58 GMT -5 fortnightlily said:

I believe bivalent booster uptake is still fairly low, considering, even among the most at-risk populations based on age, and that this is a factor in the number of daily deaths we're still seeing.
[

evidence for the bivalent booster over the monovalent has also been less robust that hoped. www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2215780

(We got ours and will keep getting everything offered, but it’s discouraging.)

[NewOrleans]

Feb 28, 2023 11:27:58 GMT -5 fortnightlily said:

I thought this was a thoughtful piece from earlier in Feb about getting the full picture of counting deaths right now: nyti.ms/3Z42QGy.

I believe bivalent booster uptake is still fairly low, considering, even among the most at-risk populations based on age, and that this is a factor in the number of daily deaths we're still seeing.

Hong Kong is lifting its mask mandates this week: www.npr.org/2023/02/28/1160003983/hong-kongs-government-says-it-will-lift-its-covid-mask-mandate-on-wednesday

Can you explain what you believe is thoughtful? It synthesizes a lot of info, to be sure, but I’m finding it problematic. 

“What about those whose Alzheimer’s, obesity or anxiety worsened in isolation, then died with a Covid infection?”  😒 

“More Americans are still dying than expected, which means at some point the United States may have to reset its expectations for how many will die in a given year at least a bit higher.”  😒

reminder to everyone to please use mitigation methods:
“nearly every expert also was careful to say that, all things being equal, a reinfection was indeed bad for you, that especially if you were not in great health you’d want to avoid them and that in particular cases a reinfection could certainly contribute to the death of a patient from causes other than classic Covid pneumonia.” 

[nothingcontroversial]

Feb 28, 2023 11:27:58 GMT -5 fortnightlily said:

I believe bivalent booster uptake is still fairly low, considering, even among the most at-risk populations based on age, and that this is a factor in the number of daily deaths we're still seeing.

In my experience, it was much easier and more convenient to get Covid shots in late 2021 and throughout 2022 than it was to get this most recent bivalent booster in fall 2022. I remember that when the first booster came out, there were clinics in my community. There were no such clinics offered this time around.

My husband went for a physical last fall after the bivalent booster came out. The doctor was able to give him a flu shot at that visit, but told him that the office hadn't received anything for the Covid booster and directed him to make an appointment at a pharmacy for it. (He did.) Around this same time, I received an email from the hospital system that my PCP is affiliated with, and the email basically said, "The bivalent booster is important for you to get, but we don't have any available in our offices, so we encourage you to make an appointment with a pharmacy to get one. Here is a link to pharmacies that offer it."

[NewOrleans]

Feb 28, 2023 9:45:45 GMT -5 erbear said:

400 deaths a day?! I don't know how I missed that this was still the case. Yikes.

I think there have literally been only a handful of days where deaths per day dropped below 300.  That was in November but by mid-December deaths per day had surged.

[mpm]

Feb 28, 2023 18:31:37 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

Feb 28, 2023 9:45:45 GMT -5 erbear said:

400 deaths a day?! I don't know how I missed that this was still the case. Yikes.

I think there have literally been only a handful of days where deaths per day dropped below 300.  That was in November but by mid-December deaths per day had surged.

And that’s especially crazy to think about when you consider how many high risk people have already died.

[tacokick]

Feb 28, 2023 18:52:08 GMT -5 mpm said:

Feb 28, 2023 18:31:37 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

I think there have literally been only a handful of days where deaths per day dropped below 300.  That was in November but by mid-December deaths per day had surged.

And that’s especially crazy to think about when you consider how many high risk people have already died.

Not to mention that the number of excess deaths is still quite high.

healthfeedback.org/what-can-explain-the-excess-mortality-in-the-u-s-and-europe-in-2022/

theconversation.com/amp/covid-19-deaths-in-the-us-continue-to-be-undercounted-research-shows-despite-claims-of-overcounts-198266

[fortnightlily]

Feb 28, 2023 17:57:46 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

Feb 28, 2023 11:27:58 GMT -5 fortnightlily said:

I thought this was a thoughtful piece from earlier in Feb about getting the full picture of counting deaths right now: nyti.ms/3Z42QGy.

I believe bivalent booster uptake is still fairly low, considering, even among the most at-risk populations based on age, and that this is a factor in the number of daily deaths we're still seeing.

Hong Kong is lifting its mask mandates this week: www.npr.org/2023/02/28/1160003983/hong-kongs-government-says-it-will-lift-its-covid-mask-mandate-on-wednesday

Can you explain what you believe is thoughtful? It synthesizes a lot of info, to be sure, but I’m finding it problematic. 

I meant thoughtful as in thoughtfully written -- like does a good job of stepping through the different theories about how to reconcile the numbers. Not thoughtful as in considerate. 

[NewOrleans]

Feb 28, 2023 18:52:08 GMT -5 mpm said:

Feb 28, 2023 18:31:37 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

I think there have literally been only a handful of days where deaths per day dropped below 300.  That was in November but by mid-December deaths per day had surged.

And that’s especially crazy to think about when you consider how many high risk people have already died.

An intriguing paradox. Invisible enough not to matter, but visible enough for one’s death to be expected. 

[curbsideprophet]

The death numbers are still horrible. Death is not the only negative outcome. What about the people who are now disabled by long Covid? Our current system can not take care of the existing patients, how is it going to handle more people with complex medical issues?

Just one example…

A condition called POTS rose after covid, but patients can’t find care

Covid is causing a sharp rise in cases of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, a disorder of the autonomic nervous system that causes rapid heart rate, fainting and dizziness.

wapo.st/3Y99I4f

It is disappointing that as more evidence of harm from covid comes out we continue to do nothing to prevent transmission.

[tacokick]

Feb 28, 2023 20:48:14 GMT -5 curbsideprophet said:

The death numbers are still horrible. Death is not the only negative outcome. What about the people who are now disabled by long Covid? Our current system can not take care of the existing patients, how is it going to handle more people with complex medical issues?

Just one example…

A condition called POTS rose after covid, but patients can’t find care

Covid is causing a sharp rise in cases of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, a disorder of the autonomic nervous system that causes rapid heart rate, fainting and dizziness.

wapo.st/3Y99I4f

It is disappointing that as more evidence of harm from covid comes out we continue to do nothing to prevent transmission.

I think we will learn a lot about how horrible it is for people in the long term. I know so many people who are under 45 who have had strokes, died in their sleep, died of heart attacks, are out of work because they can’t focus long enough to complete a task.

[spindle92]

Feb 28, 2023 21:07:49 GMT -5 tacokick said:

Feb 28, 2023 20:48:14 GMT -5 curbsideprophet said:

The death numbers are still horrible. Death is not the only negative outcome. What about the people who are now disabled by long Covid? Our current system can not take care of the existing patients, how is it going to handle more people with complex medical issues?

Just one example…

A condition called POTS rose after covid, but patients can’t find care

Covid is causing a sharp rise in cases of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, a disorder of the autonomic nervous system that causes rapid heart rate, fainting and dizziness.

wapo.st/3Y99I4f

It is disappointing that as more evidence of harm from covid comes out we continue to do nothing to prevent transmission.

I think we will learn a lot about how horrible it is for people in the long term. I know so many people who are under 45 who have had strokes, died in their sleep, died of heart attacks, are out of work because they can’t focus long enough to complete a task.

Didn't you know that all of that is 100% attributed to the vaccine and NOT the deadly virus?  (said in my most sarcastic voice).
I can't tell you how many anti-vaxxer nut jobs are playing this card. 

[AJL]

400 deaths per day is scary, but admittedly I'm probably even more scared of the unknown long term effects of COVID infection. We've all add it once (diagnosed, at least) in my household. I feel like I had fatigue for a good five/six months after I was no longer testing positive. Also cognitively, things feel much slower/mushier, if that makes sense. But on the other hand, I don't know if that's COVID or being 45 or being a grad student or still grieving my parents who died during the pandemic. There is just still so much unknown.

[bee20]

AJL , my brain also feels slower and mushier and I'm neither a grad student nor dealing with grief. But it's hard to say what is aging, what is from social changes, or whatever other reason. 

[basilosaurus]

ID Rs (of course) are calling for a ban on mRNA vaccines. I really hope this is not a portent of what's to come as the next flooding of state leg bs bills.

www.salon.com/2023/02/23/idaho-lawmakers-want-to-criminalize-mrna-vaccines-heres-what-happens-if-their-bill-passes/

[sonrisa]

How many years will it be before March stops being triggering? I find myself constantly thinking back to the analogous week in 2020.

[wanderingback]

I thankfully don’t know anyone that has/had long term effects from covid. I still have several family members that have never tested positive/have never had any symptoms of being sick/covid. So interesting!

I posted in last months thread, but yeah I’m def still not ready to return to normal even now that I had a very mild case of covid for first time in Jan and seem to have no lasting effects as of now. Still don’t feel like taking "unnecessary" risks. I’ve been invited to 2 large-ish social things in the next week that would include being indoors with 20+ people eating and drinking and I politely declined. 1 event the host said "if you’ve been doing anything risky please take a covid test beforehand," so I do think some people are still taking it somewhat seriously here, but still not ready to be care free just yet! I am ok with that.

I’ve been outdoors all winter going on walks and it hasn’t been super cold, but it’ll be nice when it warms up and outdoors socializing becomes much easier/convenient.

[Velar Fricative]

Mar 3, 2023 14:53:59 GMT -5 sonrisa said:

How many years will it be before March stops being triggering? I find myself constantly thinking back to the analogous week in 2020.

No idea but I'm right there with you. 

[basilosaurus]

Mar 3, 2023 15:31:09 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Mar 3, 2023 14:53:59 GMT -5 sonrisa said:

How many years will it be before March stops being triggering? I find myself constantly thinking back to the analogous week in 2020.

No idea but I'm right there with you. 

When we're dead and long gone.

We commemorate anniversaries. It's human nature. Sept 11, pearl harbor, my birthday (for real it's an international day of remembrance). Ffs July 4.

Is there a single life you know this hasn't touched in some way? My life was pretty radically changed. And I'm not someone who for sure had it and have lost no one to it.

But, yes, it's very a before/after for me. It literally affected what country I was in because I'm one who got trapped at a border closing after a required trip across a border. I'll always mark it. But it's more a nod of just noticing the same way I mark mom's death over 35 years ago. It happened, assess your life now, it irrevocably changed the course. Now what.

Or maybe I'm broken and unemotional. This wouldn't be the first time I've heard that.

[mrsukyankee]

I'll remember it because my brother, SIL and their kids were visiting and left on the day that the US was closing its borders. And then that Tuesday, our office closed and we didn't return for over a year.

[chickadee77]

I was the first one in my office that requested to go remote - something unheard of in our office, and planned to be gone for an extended time (set up remote desktop, made sure I had all notes and files digitized for the upcoming year or so, etc.). The next day, they closed everything for "two weeks," which ended up being more like three months, and people were in a panic trying to get everything together. Poor IT.

ETA And I'm lucky. We haven't lost anyone close to us. But my worldview has shifted so drastically that I feel like a completely different person than that cock-eyed optimist back in 2020. We're changing/have changed our entire lives due to this catalyst.

[meganew]

Mar 3, 2023 14:53:59 GMT -5 sonrisa said:

How many years will it be before March stops being triggering? I find myself constantly thinking back to the analogous week in 2020.

@@@@@@@
I was at work and we had to close for 2 days unexpectedly (unrelated to Covid) and we had to quick make packets to send home with the kids to complete, and every teacher at the copier was shaking. It felt just like the meeting we had in the morning before we shut down in 2020.

[rubytue]

Mar 3, 2023 15:06:44 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

I’ve been invited to 2 large-ish social things in the next week that would include being indoors with 20+ people eating and drinking and I politely declined. 1 event the host said "if you’ve been doing anything risky please take a covid test beforehand," so I do think some people are still taking it somewhat seriously here, but still not ready to be care free just yet! I am ok with that.

I went to an event last night at someone’s house with 28* people. On the way out, I noticed a stack of Covid test boxes by the door. But, no one asked us to test or anything. I found it kind of interesting, they were prepped for testing to get in, but didn’t. 

When we close the office, I was someone who had done 3 stints of medical telework, for 3-6 weeks each. Everyone was turning to me for advice on how to do this. My #1 advice was to set up a work station, because many of us had been teleworking one day a week, but I knew many used their couch. 

* yes, 28 people. It was billed as a house show with 30 chairs and there were 4 empty, plus the 2 performers. 😂

[rubytue]

kitty, can you @ your post

[kitty]

Mar 4, 2023 14:57:56 GMT -5 rubytue said:

kitty, can you @ your post

Oops…I made an @ thread for it. Sorry!

[rubytue]

I have the weirdest thing that seems to have occurred since having Covid - I’ve developed lactose intolerance. This is not making sense to me, but apparently it’s not unheard of to develop it after a viral GI illness. And Covid can have a GI component. So maybe there is a plausible route to a connection. But even my H said “you’ve been having GI problems since you got back from the cruise.” Which is, since I got Covid. (Also, thanks babe, I know. You are supposed to say I always smell like roses 😂)

I eat far too much cheese. Like, almost every meal gets a dusting of cheese. I’ve been fine all day and then for dinner we had Indian, and I had paneer. And sure enough, within 15 minutes…