Kamala's campaign

[underwaterrhymes]

I do think that a lot of red states aren’t as red as people think they are; rather, voters are disenfranchised and/or the state is gerrymandered.

Now, I don’t think Kansas is in play. But, I think that everyone should rock their Harris / Walz signs AND make sure they are voting blue up and down the ballot. We need to win the presidency and the House and the Senate.

[lilac05]

Sept 4, 2024 7:40:45 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I do think that a lot of red states aren’t as red as people think they are; rather, voters are disenfranchised and/or the state is gerrymandered.

Now, I don’t think Kansas is in play. But, I think that everyone should rock their Harris / Walz signs AND make sure they are voting blue up and down the ballot. We need to win the presidency and the House and the Senate.

I was just having this discussion with someone about Alabama. In 2020, voter turnout was 63%. Almost 1.4 million people didn’t vote. How many of those people just didn’t vote because they didn’t care about down ballot races and thought their blue vote didn’t matter in a “deep red” state? Trump won by 600,000 votes. I’m not saying that Biden would have won if everyone voted or the parties should throw a bunch of money at deep red states in hopes of a change, but I think grassroots efforts are never a waste of time.

I also think that if there’s ever any hope of getting rid of the electoral college, we need that popular vote differential to keep growing.

[underwaterrhymes]

Sept 4, 2024 8:00:01 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

Sept 4, 2024 7:40:45 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I do think that a lot of red states aren’t as red as people think they are; rather, voters are disenfranchised and/or the state is gerrymandered.

Now, I don’t think Kansas is in play. But, I think that everyone should rock their Harris / Walz signs AND make sure they are voting blue up and down the ballot. We need to win the presidency and the House and the Senate.

I was just having this discussion with someone about Alabama. In 2020, voter turnout was 63%. Almost 1.4 million people didn’t vote. How many of those people just didn’t vote because they didn’t care about down ballot races and thought their blue vote didn’t matter in a “deep red” state? Trump won by 600,000 votes. I’m not saying that Biden would have won if everyone voted or the parties should through a bunch of money at deep red states in hopes of a change, but I think grassroots efforts are never a waste of time.

I also think that if there’s ever any hope of getting rid of the electoral college, we need that popular vote differential to keep growing.

Yes, my point was exactly this. Disenfranchisement is real and the electoral college is bullshit.

Also, I want to point out that while I was firmly in the “Biden must stay in the race” camp, I was also in the “if not Biden, it needs to be Harris” camp. My concerns around Biden dropping out were solely around the chaos-instigators who were pushing for a drop out and a contested convention. Biden and Harris handled everything masterfully, though. I think the majority of people who pushed back on Biden dropping out had everything to do with the frankly gross and inaccurate narrative that he has dementia driven by the media. (I’m sure you’ve noticed not one of the major media outlets that were pushing this has anything to share about Trump’s mental state.)

[lilac05]

underwaterrhymes, YES! The media’s silence on Trump’s VERY obvious dangerous mental state is alarming and infuriating.

Can you imagine if Biden had said “childs” instead of “children”?? Or any one of a million other things?!? And yet, the media says that this isn’t “new” from Trump, so it isn’t news. Ridiculous. He’s always been crazy, but we’re seeing MUCH different levels.

[basilosaurus]

Sept 4, 2024 8:00:01 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

Sept 4, 2024 7:40:45 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I do think that a lot of red states aren’t as red as people think they are; rather, voters are disenfranchised and/or the state is gerrymandered.

Now, I don’t think Kansas is in play. But, I think that everyone should rock their Harris / Walz signs AND make sure they are voting blue up and down the ballot. We need to win the presidency and the House and the Senate.

I was just having this discussion with someone about Alabama. In 2020, voter turnout was 63%. Almost 1.4 million people didn’t vote. How many of those people just didn’t vote because they didn’t care about down ballot races and thought their blue vote didn’t matter in a “deep red” state? Trump won by 600,000 votes. I’m not saying that Biden would have won if everyone voted or the parties should throw a bunch of money at deep red states in hopes of a change, but I think grassroots efforts are never a waste of time.

I also think that if there’s ever any hope of getting rid of the electoral college, we need that popular vote differential to keep growing.

And this is why I keep voting in my very blue state. It may not affect electoral college, but every bit to show the spread in popular vote matters imo

[cville]

Sept 4, 2024 9:32:44 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

underwaterrhymes, YES! The media’s silence on Trump’s VERY obvious dangerous mental state is alarming and infuriating.

Can you imagine if Biden had said “childs” instead of “children”?? Or any one of a million other things?!? And yet, the media says that this isn’t “new” from Trump, so it isn’t news. Ridiculous. He’s always been crazy, but we’re seeing MUCH different levels.

He has his very own overton window and I blame the media for allowing it.

[underwaterrhymes]

Sept 4, 2024 10:42:07 GMT -5 cville said:

Sept 4, 2024 9:32:44 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

underwaterrhymes, YES! The media’s silence on Trump’s VERY obvious dangerous mental state is alarming and infuriating.

Can you imagine if Biden had said “childs” instead of “children”?? Or any one of a million other things?!? And yet, the media says that this isn’t “new” from Trump, so it isn’t news. Ridiculous. He’s always been crazy, but we’re seeing MUCH different levels.

He has his very own overton window and I blame the media for allowing it.

YES.

It’s like they created this whole little area just for him where he is allowed to be a racist, sexist rapist felon and every time he edges further into batshit bananapants territory they just move his window right along with him. It’s disgusting.

[cville]

I am doing so much math all the time. I'm getting obsessive about polling again. The edge Kamala has at this point in the race vis a vis the electoral colleage is, on average, much smaller than Biden's and a little smaller than Clinton's.

It's making me nauseated. Because we all know what happened in 2016.

I can't remember who in this thread keeps predicting a landslide, and I wish in my heart I could feel those vibes. Because my heart is a jangly mess of nerves and terror.

[fernweh]

Sept 4, 2024 11:02:07 GMT -5 cville said:

I am doing so much math all the time. I'm getting obsessive about polling again. The edge Kamala has at this point in the race vis a vis the electoral colleage is, on average, much smaller than Biden's and a little smaller than Clinton's.

It's making me nauseated. Because we all know what happened in 2016.

I can't remember who in this thread keeps predicting a landslide, and I wish in my heart I could feel those vibes. Because my heart is a jangly mess of nerves and terror.

Look I have no “facts” to offer you right now but I do think she’s going to win. I’m not sure it’ll be a land slide but she’ll win (I’m cautiously optimistic). It’s important to remember that

1. Close polling drives voter turn out. If polls currently showed her winning by a landslide I’d be worried. However, since Trump
Keeps telling his base that the polls are wrong and the media is lying, I think the close numbers will drive way more people for Harris than for Trump.

2. Polls are not reliable- we saw what happened in 2016. Plus every poll I have looked at has shown 500-600 people in states of millions. Plus how are they making sure they are random. I feel like they probably aren’t. Who are they polling? I don’t know anyone my age or younger that answers phone calls from unknown numbers. You know who does? My boomer parents and even older grandparents. I feel like the age of the people being polled probably trends old - I haven’t seen polls actually provide that data though.




ETA: I also want to point out that RFK is facing obstacles getting off of ballots in some states. That could make a difference too. I think a lot of the people who didn’t like either candidate were going to vote RFK when he removed himself, some people may have begrudgingly voted Trump but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some “protest votes” that pull from Trump if he is still on the ballot.

[circa1978]

cville, I'm with you and also I saw something from YouGov the other day that said something like 43 percent of gen z and millennials would open the door to a stranger who knocked, so polling is clearly suspect.

[cville]

Sept 4, 2024 11:17:36 GMT -5 fernweh said:

Sept 4, 2024 11:02:07 GMT -5 cville said:

I am doing so much math all the time. I'm getting obsessive about polling again. The edge Kamala has at this point in the race vis a vis the electoral colleage is, on average, much smaller than Biden's and a little smaller than Clinton's.

It's making me nauseated. Because we all know what happened in 2016.

I can't remember who in this thread keeps predicting a landslide, and I wish in my heart I could feel those vibes. Because my heart is a jangly mess of nerves and terror.

Look I have no “facts” to offer you right now but I do think she’s going to win. I’m not sure it’ll be a land slide but she’ll win (I’m cautiously optimistic). It’s important to remember that

1. Close polling drives voter turn out. If polls currently showed her winning by a landslide I’d be worried. However, since Trump
Keeps telling his base that the polls are wrong and the media is lying, I think the close numbers will drive way more people for Harris than for Trump.

2. Polls are not reliable- we saw what happened in 2016. Plus every poll I have looked at has shown 500-600 people in states of millions. Plus how are they making sure they are random. I feel like they probably aren’t. Who are they polling? I don’t know anyone my age or younger that answers phone calls from unknown numbers. You know who does? My boomer parents and even older grandparents. I feel like the age of the people being polled probably trends old - I haven’t seen polls actually provide that data though.




ETA: I also want to point out that RFK is facing obstacles getting off of ballots in some states. That could make a difference too. I think a lot of the people who didn’t like either candidate were going to vote RFK when he removed himself, some people may have begrudgingly voted Trump but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some “protest votes” that pull from Trump if he is still on the ballot.

Going to screenshot this and read it every night to self-soothe

[wanderingback]

Sept 4, 2024 11:17:36 GMT -5 fernweh said:

Sept 4, 2024 11:02:07 GMT -5 cville said:

I am doing so much math all the time. I'm getting obsessive about polling again. The edge Kamala has at this point in the race vis a vis the electoral colleage is, on average, much smaller than Biden's and a little smaller than Clinton's.

It's making me nauseated. Because we all know what happened in 2016.

I can't remember who in this thread keeps predicting a landslide, and I wish in my heart I could feel those vibes. Because my heart is a jangly mess of nerves and terror.

Look I have no “facts” to offer you right now but I do think she’s going to win. I’m not sure it’ll be a land slide but she’ll win (I’m cautiously optimistic). It’s important to remember that

1. Close polling drives voter turn out. If polls currently showed her winning by a landslide I’d be worried. However, since Trump
Keeps telling his base that the polls are wrong and the media is lying, I think the close numbers will drive way more people for Harris than for Trump.

2. Polls are not reliable- we saw what happened in 2016. Plus every poll I have looked at has shown 500-600 people in states of millions. Plus how are they making sure they are random. I feel like they probably aren’t. Who are they polling? I don’t know anyone my age or younger that answers phone calls from unknown numbers. You know who does? My boomer parents and even older grandparents. I feel like the age of the people being polled probably trends old - I haven’t seen polls actually provide that data though.




ETA: I also want to point out that RFK is facing obstacles getting off of ballots in some states. That could make a difference too. I think a lot of the people who didn’t like either candidate were going to vote RFK when he removed himself, some people may have begrudgingly voted Trump but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some “protest votes” that pull from Trump if he is still on the ballot.

I was listening to npr the other day so don’t have the print/actual poll. However, it said that it was a poll out of PA and it had 48/48 with Harrris and Trump tied. The person then talked about how the looked into the pill further. It was only 500 people. 6 people responded they had never heard of Trump and 7 people responded they had never heard of Harris. I don’t know if people were punking the poll but eeesh, this is why polling is tricky and not accurate!

[underwaterrhymes]

Ignore the polls. They are useless.

Bouzy is already projecting a Harris win and Lichtman has unofficially said Harris (and has indicated he will have an official projection soon.)

If either ever shifts to Trump, I will panic. But for now, I am cautiously optimistic. We have momentum and enthusiasm on our side, but I mean this sincerely when I say we all need to do everything we can to encourage people to vote. Wear your shirts, post your signs, share your intentions on social media, write postcards and letters, canvass or phone bank or text bank if you’re able. We cannot leave anything on the table.

[cville]

Bouzy is buoying me. He's got the attitude of "we're going to win but fight like hell and act like we're down."

I can get with that trust but verify mentality.

[cous0226]

Sept 4, 2024 16:40:36 GMT -5 cville said:

Bouzy is buoying me. He's got the attitude of "we're going to win but fight like hell and act like we're down."

I can get with that trust but verify mentality.

Hi who is Bouzy and where can I find what he is saying? Thanks

[underwaterrhymes]

Sept 4, 2024 18:48:10 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

Sept 4, 2024 16:40:36 GMT -5 cville said:

Bouzy is buoying me. He's got the attitude of "we're going to win but fight like hell and act like we're down."

I can get with that trust but verify mentality.

Hi who is Bouzy and where can I find what he is saying? Thanks

It’s Christopher Bouzy. He started Bot Sentinel (which a service that addressed disinformation campaigns on Twitter) and also started Spoutible, a Twitter alternative.

He has been remarkably accurate in predicting past elections. He posts on Spoutible and Twitter, largely.
Although Spoutible is his platform, he is most active on Twitter.

[cous0226]

Sept 4, 2024 18:57:24 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Sept 4, 2024 18:48:10 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

Hi who is Bouzy and where can I find what he is saying? Thanks

It’s Christopher Bouzy. He started Bot Sentinel (which a service that addressed disinformation campaigns on Twitter) and also started Spoutible, a Twitter alternative.

He has been remarkably accurate in predicting past elections. He posts on Spoutible and Twitter, largely.
Although Spoutible is his platform, he is most active on Twitter.

Ok saw some tweets and will follow him. He’s getting me excited about Florida

[underwaterrhymes]

Liz Cheney endorsed Harris today.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/04/liz-cheney-endorsement-kamala-harris-election/

[basilosaurus]

Keep in mind the media *want* a close race. It gives them an easy narrative and ratings. The way they frame headlines blatantly show this

[fernweh]

Allan Lichtman has predicted Harris to win

www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/05/historian-allan-lichtman-2024-election-prediction/75082875007/

[pugz]

Appreciate everyone's enthusiasm for Kansas, lol

[fernweh]

Also this gave me more joy than it probably should have -

Harris raised $300 million in August. Trump raised $130 million.

www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/kamala-harris-raised-300-million-august-extending-cash-windfall-rcna169759

[stuffandthings]

Sept 5, 2024 7:55:54 GMT -5 fernweh said:

Allan Lichtman has predicted Harris to win

www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/05/historian-allan-lichtman-2024-election-prediction/75082875007/

I am deeply shocked by how relieved this made me feel. Lichtman doesn't eff around--he's legit.

But let's pretend like we're losing anyway and fight like hell!

[basilosaurus]

Sept 5, 2024 13:30:22 GMT -5 pugz said:

Appreciate everyone's enthusiasm for Kansas, lol

Oh, I can throw cold water on hope for KS anytime if you want that, too

Just ask me about my sister's friends and how she defended her friendships based on how wonderful their interpersonal relationships were, and she just ignored how it's because she met their extremely narrow criteria of "good person who I would do anything for." Basically, they voted for the most anti-abortion and nothing else mattered. But, hey, playdates and carpools!

They were quite lovely to me, and I'm sure they knew of my strong oppositional views. Such is the situation of good hearted people to those they know (or adjacent) who vote for some of the nastiest policies that apply to "those people."

[ellipses84]

Sept 5, 2024 13:49:28 GMT -5 fernweh said:

Also this gave me more joy than it probably should have -

Harris raised $300 million in August. Trump raised $130 million.

www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/kamala-harris-raised-300-million-august-extending-cash-windfall-rcna169759

I hate that he even raised that much, but I’m going to interpret it as he got some big rich MAGA and evil billionaire donations, but Harris has grass roots donations that translate to a lot more voters. Like on one call I attended, the average donation was around $50. At that average, it’s 6 million Harris voters!

[neverfstop]

Sept 5, 2024 15:37:31 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

Sept 5, 2024 13:49:28 GMT -5 fernweh said:

Also this gave me more joy than it probably should have -

Harris raised $300 million in August. Trump raised $130 million.

www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/kamala-harris-raised-300-million-august-extending-cash-windfall-rcna169759

I hate that he even raised that much, but I’m going to interpret it as he got some big rich MAGA and evil billionaire donations, but Harris has grass roots donations that translate to a lot more voters. Like on one call I attended, the average donation was around $50. At that average, it’s 6 million Harris voters!

Agreed- I can't believe he's still shaking down people for almost 10 years!!  I'd love a total number that people have donated (up in smoke) to line his pockets or pay for his legal defense.   Every time we turn around it's some other racket or tinket or meme coin or tainted bible or nasty steaks or fugly shoes he's selling...

Dems are spending money to win the HOR & Senate and other down ballot races. 

[fernweh]

88 business leaders have co-signed a letter endorsing Kamala Harris

variety.com/2024/biz/news/kamala-harris-endorsed-business-leaders-letter-james-murdoch-peter-chernin-1236132977/

[underwaterrhymes]

Harris has released her policies ahead of tomorrow’s debate:

kamalaharris.com/issues/

[laladypoet]

Sept 4, 2024 7:40:45 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I do think that a lot of red states aren’t as red as people think they are; rather, voters are disenfranchised and/or the state is gerrymandered.

I've been saying this, as someone in Texas. thank you.

[cville]

Sept 9, 2024 6:21:02 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Harris has released her policies ahead of tomorrow’s debate:

kamalaharris.com/issues/

Loving the embedded links to the parallel elements of "Trump's Project 25."